Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
402 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track east through the southern Great Lakes
tonight, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms this
evening. A few lingering showers will be possible overnight into
early Monday as an upper level disturbance rotates through the
area. Surface high pressure building across the Ohio Valley will
offer cool and dry weather later Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Well defined mid level shortwave evident on water vapor imagery
over Southern Wisconsin to track east thru the Southern Great
Lakes tonight.

Modest Low level moisture along with a break in the clouds has
led to a thin axis of marginal instability across eastern
Indiana and western Ohio this aftn -- with SB CAPE values up to
500 J/KG. Anomalously cold temperatures aloft and mid level
lapse rates of 8 deg c/km or more, has led to a favorable
environment for low topped convection. These storms have been
efficient wind producers. Broken line of showers and
thunderstorms which is moving into western Ohio was producing
strong and damaging wind gusts. This line will continue to
produce strong to damaging winds for the next hour or so and
then weaken some as it moves further east across central Ohio.

Have continued to highlight this severe weather threat in the
HWO product.

Storms to end late this aftn/very early evening with the passage
of the sfc cold front. Pressure gradient will increase with the
wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph after the pcpn ends into the early
evening.

A mid level shortwave rotating thru the area and surface trof
will keep a chance of showers going across the northern counties
tonight. Chilly lows will drop back to between 35 and 40
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level shortwave, low level cyclonic flow and 8H thermal
trof of -5 deg C, will lead to considerable cloudiness on
Monday. A few lingering showers possible, mainly over the
northeast counties early. Highs will be about 20 degrees below
normal, ranging from the upper 40s northeast to mid 50s
southwest.

Northwest flow aloft with the center of surface high pressure
building across KY/TN Monday night. Expect a decrease in clouds
Monday evening. Under partly cloudy skies, frost is likely with
the potential for freezing temperatures north by Tuesday
morning. Expect Monday nights lows to range from the lower 30s
northeast to the mid 30s southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be in place on Tuesday to start off a
longer term pattern of warming temperatures and increasing moisture.
On Tuesday, temperatures are expected to moderate 5-10 degrees over
Monday's highs. However, temperatures still remain below average
with highs in the upper 50s. Tuesday night remains chilly for mid
May with lows around 40 near the Ohio River and middle 30s across
central Ohio. Frost may be possible just east of Columbus if the sky
remains mostly clear.

Fair weather continues into Wednesday while the surface high moves
east and upper level ridging builds. Southerly flow will develop
west of the high during the day allowing moisture to increase and
temperatures to moderate closer to normal. Forecast highs reach into
the low 60s.

Rain chances increase later on Wednesday into Wednesday night as
warm air advection develops aloft and a warm front pushes north
through the area. Rain chances increases from south to north with
the highest likelihood of showers and thunderstorms north of I-70.
Lows are only expected to be near 50 due to southerly flow advecting
warm air and moisture into the Ohio Valley.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will then remain in the
forecast through Sunday with a relatively warm and humid air mass in
place and a boundary draped across the region. Expect highs to warm
up a bit each day with highs possibly reaching 80 by Saturday. A
cold frontal passage is then possible around the Sunday/Monday time
frame.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface low pressure over Southern Lower Michigan to track east
across the Southern Great Lakes today and tonight. A thin ribbon
of marginal instability will develop along and ahead of a
southward trailing cold front. A period of showers and thunderstorms
will impact this TAF sites as this front pushes east across the
area this aftn. The best time for storms will be from 19Z to
22Z and some of the storms will contain strong to damaging
winds. Marginal severe hail will also be possible with some of
the stronger updrafts.

In addition to the wind gusts from the thunderstorms, the
gradient will increase allowing for wind gusts up to 30 kts
outside of storms.

The convection will push east of the TAF sites by 00Z and low
level CAA will develop in the wake of the cold front. A mid
level shortwave rotating thru the area and surface trof will
keep a chance of showers going across the KCMH and KLCK
into tonight. Stratocumulus and MVFR ceilings will develop
across all TAF sites overnight. A period of IFR ceilings is also
likely at KCMH/KLCK late tonight into early Monday morning.

Winds will stay up overnight with westerly gusts of 20 to 25
kts.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings to linger into Monday. Thunderstorms
possible Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
320 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
078>082-088-111930-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
Adams-Pike-Scioto-
320 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio
and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
remainder of the afternoon. The stronger storms will contain strong
to damaging winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Frost will be possible Monday night into Tuesday morning as
temperatures will into the lower to mid 30s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed, while following all local, state
and CDC guidelines.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077-111930-
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hamilton-
320 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
remainder of the afternoon. The stronger storms will contain strong
to damaging winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed, while following all local, state
and CDC guidelines.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
530 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     TSTM WND GST     KVTA NEWARK-HEATH APT   40.02N 82.46W
05/10/2020  M55 MPH          LICKING            OH   ASOS

&&

JEG