Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
121 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track east through southern Michigan today,
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure
in the Great Plains will keep a cool and northerly flow over the
Ohio Valley through the early part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Well defined mid level shortwave over the Upper Mississippi
Valley to track southeast thru the Southern Great Lakes today.

Modest Low level moisture is advected into the area ahead of
an associated sfc cold front. Thermal fields are limiting factor
with a ribbon of surface dewpoints increasing to the mid and
perhaps upper 40s. These sfc Td/s combine with temperatures
around 60. Although low level theta-e is limited, anomalously
cold temperatures aloft and mid level lapse rates of 8 deg c/km
or more, yield marginal CAPE values into the area this aftn.

HREF probabilities of 500 J/g are 60 to 70 percent. Given this
setup and bulk shear of around 40 kts -- expect an environment
favorable for low topped convection. Some discrete cells
possible early this aftn, then evolving into a broken linear
feature. Expect main threat to be strong to damaging wind gusts
with some marginally severe hail also possible. CAM solutions
pointing to two arcs of pcpn with the second axis ahead of the
front associated with the marginal instby. Timing for this
potential severe weather looks to be from 17Z to 22Z or 1 PM to
6 PM. Convection looks to weaken as it pushes east thru Central
Ohio.

Will continue to highlight this severe weather threat in the
HWO product.

Pressure gradient will increase with the approaching low and
diurnal mixing which will yield max wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph.

Temperatures remain below normal with highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The bulk of the convection will be trying to exit the eastern
portions of the fa at the beginning of the period, but scattered
showers will be lingering across the region as the s/w axis
swings through the eastern Great Lakes tonight. Expect a
decrease in the showers from southwest to northeast after
midnight. Lows will drop back to between 35 and 40 degrees.

Persistent northwest flow aloft and cold advection will keep
clouds across the region on Monday. There could be a few
lingering showers in Central Ohio during the morning hours.
Breezy conditions will linger on Monday. Highs will be about 20
degrees below normal, ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
A spot or two in the Cinci Tri-State could make the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper trough residing over the Eastern CONUS will continue to
dictate weather conditions during the beginning of the long term.
Later in the period the pattern changes as a broad upper ridge
featuring increasing geopotential heights takes over.

For Monday night, dry air will be circulating around high pressure
centered to the south, allowing no precipitation. Under partly
cloudy skies, frost is likely to form near dawn as temperatures fall
into the 30s in the persistently chilly airmass. Expect no precip
through Tuesday night as the high moves toward the East Coast. The
high will reach the coast Wednesday, while a ridge aloft builds
across the Ohio Valley. Threat for showers returns Wednesday
afternoon in the increasingly humid flow behind the high.

A front is then forecast to develop over the Great Lake before
sliding to Ohio. Being roughly parallel to the mid level flow, the
boundary will travel gradually, allowing a threat for showers and
thunderstorms to last from Wednesday night through Saturday, aided
by several ripples of short wave energy.

As geopotential heights increase to normal and above, a warming
trend will be observed. Expect highs in the upper 50s Tuesday,
rising to the low 60s Wednesday, the 70s Thursday and Friday, with
80 attainable on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface low pressure over Southern Lower Michigan to track east
across the Southern Great Lakes today and tonight. A thin ribbon
of marginal instability will develop along and ahead of a
southward trailing cold front. A period of showers and thunderstorms
will impact this TAF sites as this front pushes east across the
area this aftn. The best time for storms will be from 19Z to
22Z and some of the storms will contain strong to damaging
winds. Marginal severe hail will also be possible with some of
the stronger updrafts.

In addition to the wind gusts from the thunderstorms, the
gradient will increase allowing for wind gusts up to 30 kts
outside of storms.

The convection will push east of the TAF sites by 00Z and low
level CAA will develop in the wake of the cold front. A mid
level shortwave rotating thru the area and surface trof will
keep a chance of showers going across the KCMH and KLCK
into tonight. Stratocumulus and MVFR ceilings will develop
across all TAF sites overnight. A period of IFR ceilings is also
likely at KCMH/KLCK late tonight into early Monday morning.

Winds will stay up overnight with westerly gusts of 20 to 25
kts.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings to linger into Monday. Thunderstorms
possible Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR/Sites
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
320 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
078>082-088-111930-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
Adams-Pike-Scioto-
320 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio
and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
remainder of the afternoon. The stronger storms will contain strong
to damaging winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Frost will be possible Monday night into Tuesday morning as
temperatures will into the lower to mid 30s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed, while following all local, state
and CDC guidelines.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077-111930-
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hamilton-
320 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
remainder of the afternoon. The stronger storms will contain strong
to damaging winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed, while following all local, state
and CDC guidelines.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
318 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020

OHZ044-045-052-101945-
Champaign OH-Logan OH-Union OH-
318 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT CHAMPAIGN...
SOUTHERN LOGAN COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL UNION
COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 318 PM EDT, radar indicated showers along a line extending from
near De Graff to near St. Paris, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Bellefontaine, Urbana, St. Paris, West Liberty, North Lewisburg, De
Graff, Quincy, Christiansburg, Woodstock, Valley Hi, Zanesfield,
Cable, Westville, Rosewood, Pickrelltown, Lippincott, Carysville,
Middleburg, Springhills and Kiser Lake State Park.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4036 8353 4014 8350 4005 8403 4034 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 243DEG 42KT 4035 8396 4009 8394

Novak

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
326 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     TSTM WND GST     KCVG CINC N KY APT      39.05N 84.66W
05/10/2020  M46 MPH          BOONE              KY   ASOS

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
329 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE VEVAY             38.74N 85.05W
05/10/2020                   CARROLL            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN CAUSING POWER OUTAGE. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

CAMPBELL