Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
358 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and humid airmass in place over the Ohio Valley
will support chances for showers and thunderstorms ahead of an
approaching cold front tonight. The cold front will move
through the area Sunday morning ushering in cooler, drier air to
the region. Strong southwesterly winds are expected behind the
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Surface observations reveal that a slow moving warm front is
currently draped across Darke, Shelby, Logan, and Hardin counties.
Temperatures north of the front are in the low 50s. South of the
front, temperatures are in the 70s with dew points in the 60s along
with 10-20 mph southerly winds. Strong to severe storms have formed
just south of the warm front in the warm sector with hail and
damaging winds being the primary threats.

SPC mesoanalysis suggests that the warm sector is characterized by
moderate surface based instability (surface based CAPE > 1500 J/kg)
with little to no convective inhibition. The unstable environment is
also characterized by strong speed shear with straight line
hodographs and 0-6km bulk shear exceeding 60 knots. Forcing
mechanisms have been subtle, but analysis of the environment suggest
that large scale accent ahead of an approaching low, in combination
with low-level frontogenesis (as seen on SPC meso analysis) due to
differential diabatic heating along the frontal boundary, could have
provided enough ascent just south of the warm front to initiate
convection. Storms will likely continue to progress eastward just
south of the boundary this evening and possibly diminish in coverage
as instability and the temperature gradient is reduced across
central Ohio.

Storm coverage may once again increase tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the Ohio Valley. Forcing may be stronger than during
the daytime hours due to the approaching cold front, but instability
is expected to be weakening (MUCAPE < 1000 J/kg). There is still as
severe threat when taking into consideration a strong low-level jet
east of the front helping to support a strong shear profile.

The cold front is expected to move east of the Ohio Valley by
daybreak. Expect lows in the lower 50s across western Ohio/eastern
Indiana and middle 60s in central Ohio and northern Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Southwesterly winds are forecast to strengthen after the cold
front passes through the Ohio Valley on Sunday morning. A
strengthening pressure gradient in combination with cold air
advection and daytime mixing will likely result in sustained
winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 50 mph. The strongest
winds are expected across the northern two thirds of the CWA. A
wind advisory has been issued for the strong winds.

With cold air advection and strong winds in place, highs are
not expected to rise much. Forecast highs may be early in the
day in some locations. Expecting highs in the upper 50s in
western Ohio/eastern Indiana and upper 60s in southern Ohio.
Cold air advection continues into Sunday night as winds start to
weaken. Forecast lows are in the 40s areawide and surface
ridging strengthens.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Though we may escape headline events, weaker systems may bring
unsettled weather from time to time.

Surface high pressure forming behind an upper low should provide dry
weather on Monday. Low pressure driven by a rather potent upper
trough will produce rain chances Tuesday, especially in southern
locations closer to the track of the surface low. Isolated showers
may persist Wednesday through Friday in lingering moisture behind
the low, aided by weak mid level short wave energy. A better chance
for showers may exist Saturday when a cold front is forecast to
advance from the west.

Pattern featuring geopotential heights a bit below average suggests
temperatures a few to several degrees below normal. Look for highs
ranging in the upper 40s north to around 60 south on Monday. Expect
a retreat to the mid and upper 40s Tuesday, then back up the the 50s
Wednesday through Friday, before dropping to the 40s again on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front has pushed north of the TAF sites this morning. South
of the warm front, periods of showers and thunderstorms (some
severe) are expected through the afternoon and overnight hours until
a cold front crosses the region. Drops to MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR
visibilities are expected in the convection.

Additionally, southerly winds from 10-20 knots with gusts upwards of
25 knots are expected through the afternoon outside of
thunderstorms. Surface winds may drop off a bit overnight, but a
strong low-level jet is expected to develop and lead to
southwesterly low-level wind shear around 45 knots east of the
front. After the front passes through Saturday morning, low-level
wind shear should subside in the cold air advection regime and
westerly/southwesterly surface winds are expected around 25
knots with gusts upwards of 40 knots.

OUTLOOK...Wind gusts 40 knots or higher are likely on Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-080.
KY...None.
IN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for INZ050-058-059-
     066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Campbell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
345 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
080-292000-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Highland-
345 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio
and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening may be severe with
damaging winds and large hail the primary severe weather threats.

Additional thunderstorms will then move across the area overnight.
There is the potential for a few of these thunderstorms to be severe
with damaging winds the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are urged to relay any severe weather reports to the
National Weather Service in Wilmington. Spotters activation may be
needed overnight.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ090>100-OHZ077>079-081-082-088-292000-
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-
Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hamilton-Clermont-
Brown-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
345 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and this evening.
A strong or severe storm may occur with damaging winds and large
hail are the primary severe weather threats.

Additional thunderstorms will then move across the area overnight.
There is the potential for a few of these thunderstorms to be severe
with damaging winds the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Wind gusts around 40 mph are expected on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are urged to relay any severe weather reports to the
National Weather Service in Wilmington. Spotters activation may be
needed overnight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
510 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 E HARBOR HILLS        39.94N 82.34W
03/28/2020  M1.84 INCH       LICKING            OH   PUBLIC

            DAILY RAINFALL THUS FAR.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
513 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E MILLERSPORT         39.90N 82.52W
03/28/2020  M1.36 INCH       FAIRFIELD          OH   PUBLIC

&&

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
537 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

OHZ034-035-042-043-051-282215-
Auglaize OH-Darke OH-Shelby OH-Mercer OH-Miami OH-
537 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN SHELBY...DARKE...
SOUTHWESTERN AUGLAIZE...SOUTHERN MERCER AND NORTHWESTERN MIAMI
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 537 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Winchester,
moving east at 45 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Pea size hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Piqua, Greenville, St. Marys, Coldwater, New Bremen, Minster,
Versailles, Covington, St. Henry, Newport, Bradford, Union City, Fort
Loramie, Fort Recovery, Ansonia, New Knoxville, Moulton, Webster,
Wayne Lakes and Russia.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4008 8429 4001 8481 4045 8480 4057 8428
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 255DEG 38KT 4020 8500

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
546 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             1 SE NEWARK             40.05N 82.39W
03/28/2020  M0.75 INCH       LICKING            OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JEG

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