Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
543 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface trough continues to head east through the Great Lakes
today, providing thunderstorms and gusty winds. High pressure
builds in from the mid Mississippi Valley Thursday, bringing
cooler and drier air. Dry cold front on Friday reinforces cool
and dry conditions heading into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
update...

Convection becoming linear as it moves into central Ohio with an
enhanced bowing segment (high end wind event) moving thru
Madison county. This activity will continue to push across the
Columbus metro area with wind gusts up to 75 mph in the next
hour. This activity has developed along the convergent wind
axis...where moderate instability exists. Have dropped watch
across eastern Indiana behind the wind shift line where drier
air is advecting into the area. Winds will gust up to 40 mph
outside of storms.

Previous discussion..
Convection expected to increase in coverage and intensity this
evening as convergent boundary/surface trough heads east into an
unstable airmass (SBCAPE near 2500-3000). Bulk shear values
rising to 45-50 knots support supercells, especially western
half of forecast area. Hodographs are mostly straight, so
expecting damaging winds as the primary threat, though a few
taller cores could produce large hail. In addition, if discrete
cells congeal into a linear mode, a few QLCS tornadoes are
possible as 0-3km bulk shear values approach 40-45 knots from
the southwest.

Low level moisture drops quickly behind the trough, so PoPs have
been trimmed heading into the later evening hours. Some guidance
paints potential for light precip in northern areas late
tonight as the mid level trough swings through, though most do
not, so stayed dry with just an increase in clouds which clear
out around sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure brings temperatures back just below
normal with low humidity through the period. Highs should stay
below 80 degrees, with lows in the upper 50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure offering a mainly
dry day on Friday. Expect temperatures close to normal with highs on
Friday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Back door type weakening cold front and a shortwave which drop
south, could lead to a few showers late Friday night into Saturday
across the far northeast counties.

Low amplitude mid level trough over the Great Lakes to amplify with
closed low developing this weekend. Uncertainty exists on exactly
where the low closes off. Consensus forecast closes this low over
the Eastern Great Lakes. While the ECMWF continues to be further
west, the 12Z deterministic run has trended a little east. Will
limit pops to slight chance of a shower Sunday and Monday with the
best chance in the east.

Pattern changes with mid level ridge building into the area thru the
middle of next week. Model solutions differ on how fast the ridge
builds into the area. Will limit pops to slight chance/chance
categories -- mainly in the afternoon/evening, Monday thru
Wednesday. Temperatures to warm thru the period with highs in the
mid 80s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main impact to
aviation during the TAF period will be thunderstorm development
and winds. Based on high-res guidance becoming more clustered,
confidence is increasing on timing of storms over the TAF sites.
Outside a few isolated storms, main development will be with
main line, beginning in DAY/CVG/LUK at 20Z, ILN at 21Z, then
CMH/LCK at 22Z. Accommodated for potential severity of storms
with 2 mile visibility during tempo group, but will need to
amend to bring in strong wind gusts as they more closely
approach. Wouldn't be surprised to see gusts to at least 35
knots with storms in the developing line, and a few gusts to 50
knots are likely in the stronger storms.

Outside of storms, wind gusts out of the south to 25-30 knots
may produce impacts in some locations. Expecting direction to
shift to southwesterly, then westerly late this evening after
the line moves through. Gusts will also decrease late tonight.

A brief period of MVFR ceilings are possible late tonight, but
still relatively low confidence here. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will dominate the Thursday portion of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS possible Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hogue
NEAR TERM...Hogue/AR
SHORT TERM...Hogue
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hogue

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
509 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ054>056-060>065-070>074-
077>082-088-110915-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-
Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
509 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and persist into
the early evening hours. Some of these storms may include large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed, while following all local,
state and CDC guidelines.

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>053-110915-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-
509 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and persist into
the early evening hours. Some of these storms may include large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes. Damaging winds of 75 mph or greater
are possible within the strongest thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed, while following all local,
state and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
533 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE FORT LORAMIE      40.34N 84.34W
06/10/2020                   SHELBY             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            ONE SIDE OF POLE BARN WALL BLOWN DOWN ON EILERMAN ROAD.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
535 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW JEFFERSONVILLE     39.70N 83.61W
06/10/2020                   FAYETTE            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN ALONG SR 41.

&&

JEG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
537 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

OHZ026-035-043-044-102200-
Auglaize OH-Logan OH-Shelby OH-Hardin OH-
537 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SHELBY...
NORTHWESTERN LOGAN...NORTHEASTERN AUGLAIZE AND WESTERN HARDIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 537 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Jackson
Center, moving northeast at 55 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Ada, Anna, Jackson Center, Russells Point, Lakeview, Dunkirk, Alger,
Waynesfield, Chippewa Park, Blanchard, Roundhead, Mcguffey, Port
Jefferson, Dola, Montra, Huntersville, Maplewood, Bloom Center,
Pemberton and State Route 195 at State Route 235.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 97 and 102.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4081 8353 4027 8402 4037 8421 4064 8403
      4065 8388 4082 8388 4082 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 210DEG 49KT 4045 8402

JDR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
543 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N CABLE               40.20N 83.63W
06/10/2020                   CHAMPAIGN          OH   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN. PHOTO POSTED ON SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME
            ESIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
544 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND GST     KUYF LONDON APT         39.93N 83.46W
06/10/2020  M51 MPH          MADISON            OH   AWOS

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
550 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     TSTM WND GST     KMRT MARYSVILLE APT     40.22N 83.35W
06/10/2020  M49 MPH          UNION              OH   AWOS

&&

JEG