Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
407 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface trough continues to head east through the Great Lakes
today, providing thunderstorms and gusty winds. High pressure
builds in from the mid Mississippi Valley Thursday, bringing
cooler and drier air. Dry cold front on Friday reinforces cool
and dry conditions heading into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Convection expected to increase in coverage and intensity this
evening as convergent boundary/surface trough heads east
into an unstable airmass (SBCAPE near 2500-3000). Bulk shear
values rising to 45-50 knots support supercells, especially
western half of forecast area. Hodographs are mostly straight,
so expecting damaging winds as the primary threat, though a few
taller cores could produce large hail. In addition, if discrete
cells congeal into a linear mode, a few QLCS tornadoes are
possible as 0-3km bulk shear values approach 40-45 knots from
the southwest.

Low level moisture drops quickly behind the trough, so PoPs have
been trimmed heading into the later evening hours. Some guidance
paints potential for light precip in northern areas late
tonight as the mid level trough swings through, though most do
not, so stayed dry with just an increase in clouds which clear
out around sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure brings temperatures back just below
normal with low humidity through the period. Highs should stay
below 80 degrees, with lows in the upper 50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure offering a mainly
dry day on Friday. Expect temperatures close to normal with highs on
Friday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Back door type weakening cold front and a shortwave which drop
south, could lead to a few showers late Friday night into Saturday
across the far northeast counties.

Low amplitude mid level trough over the Great Lakes to amplify with
closed low developing this weekend. Uncertainty exists on exactly
where the low closes off. Consensus forecast closes this low over
the Eastern Great Lakes. While the ECMWF continues to be further
west, the 12Z deterministic run has trended a little east. Will
limit pops to slight chance of a shower Sunday and Monday with the
best chance in the east.

Pattern changes with mid level ridge building into the area thru the
middle of next week. Model solutions differ on how fast the ridge
builds into the area. Will limit pops to slight chance/chance
categories -- mainly in the afternoon/evening, Monday thru
Wednesday. Temperatures to warm thru the period with highs in the
mid 80s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main impact to
aviation during the TAF period will be thunderstorm development
and winds. Based on high-res guidance becoming more clustered,
confidence is increasing on timing of storms over the TAF sites.
Outside a few isolated storms, main development will be with
main line, beginning in DAY/CVG/LUK at 20Z, ILN at 21Z, then
CMH/LCK at 22Z. Accommodated for potential severity of storms
with 2 mile visibility during tempo group, but will need to
amend to bring in strong wind gusts as they more closely
approach. Wouldn't be surprised to see gusts to at least 35
knots with storms in the developing line, and a few gusts to 50
knots are likely in the stronger storms.

Outside of storms, wind gusts out of the south to 25-30 knots
may produce impacts in some locations. Expecting direction to
shift to southwesterly, then westerly late this evening after
the line moves through. Gusts will also decrease late tonight.

A brief period of MVFR ceilings are possible late tonight, but
still relatively low confidence here. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will dominate the Thursday portion of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS possible Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hogue
NEAR TERM...Hogue
SHORT TERM...Hogue
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hogue

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
509 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ054>056-060>065-070>074-
077>082-088-110915-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-
Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
509 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and persist into
the early evening hours. Some of these storms may include large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed, while following all local,
state and CDC guidelines.

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>053-110915-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-
509 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and persist into
the early evening hours. Some of these storms may include large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes. Damaging winds of 75 mph or greater
are possible within the strongest thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed, while following all local,
state and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
425 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

OHZ060-061-070-071-102100-
Montgomery OH-Warren OH-Butler OH-Preble OH-
425 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN PREBLE...EASTERN
BUTLER...NORTHWESTERN WARREN AND SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL
500 PM EDT...

At 425 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Williamsdale, moving northeast at 35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Dayton, Hamilton, Kettering, Middletown, Fairfield, Miamisburg,
Springboro, Monroe, Trenton, Franklin, Moraine, Carlisle, South
Middletown, West Chester, West Carrollton, Seven Mile, Williamsdale,
Olde West Chester, Hunter and Wetherington.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 20 and 21, and
between mile markers 25 and 48.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3932 8441 3937 8462 3977 8446 3967 8414
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 207DEG 30KT 3943 8450

Novak

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE FLORENCE          38.93N 84.63W
06/10/2020                   BOONE              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

BC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
426 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

KYZ092>096-102100-
Pendleton KY-Owen KY-Kenton KY-Campbell KY-Grant KY-
426 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN KENTON...SOUTHERN
CAMPBELL...EASTERN GRANT...EAST CENTRAL OWEN AND PENDLETON COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 426 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 7 miles south of
Williamstown, moving northeast at 35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Williamstown, Falmouth, Dry Ridge, Butler, Morgan, Corinth, Mount
Auburn, Stewartsville, Northcutt, Gardnersville, Fiskburg, Camp
Northward, New Columbus, Sherman, Goforth, Greenwood, Cherry Grove,
Morning View, Williamstown Lake and Kincaid Lake State Park.

This includes I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 144 and 161.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3849 8473 3889 8452 3878 8423 3875 8423
      3856 8438 3856 8442 3854 8442 3854 8445
      3853 8445 3854 8447 3851 8449 3851 8452
      3849 8456 3844 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 207DEG 30KT 3852 8457

Novak

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