Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
248 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

Early this afternoon, a cold front currently stretches across south
central Kansas, roughly from near Kingman, through the Wichita
metro, and into northeast Kansas as of 18z. Behind this boundary,
a few elevated showers with embedded thunder have developed
across central Kansas and have been slowly working southward.
Though some small hail and gusty winds will be possible with this
activity, the main concern for the rest of the day will be further
south.

As the afternoon progresses, the focus will shift to south central
and southeast Kansas as the front pushes southeast. Ahead of the
front in southeast Kansas, a pool of enhanced moisture (dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s) has been nudging north into southern
Kansas, and instability has been on the rise. MUCAPE has increased
significantly in southeast Kansas and this will continue to
increase over the next few hours (potentially in excess of 3000
J/kg). As of 19z, much of south central Kansas remains capped,
but latest short term guidance continues to suggest that capping
will erode enough to support convection within the next couple of
hours and storms should begin by around 21z. As low-level
convergence increases amidst impressive mid- level lapse rates of
8+ C/km, abrupt convective initiation can be expected shortly.
Still thinking initiation will likely occur roughly in the
vicinity of the Kansas Turnpike near or just east of the Wichita
metro area.

With the initial development, deep layer shear vectors will be
oriented off the initiating boundary. Cloud layer mean wind will
have a sufficient orthogonal orientation to the boundary as well,
especially further south near the Kansas/Oklahoma border.
Therefore, a few discrete cells may be possible initially before
quickly becoming more of a cluster but with potentially separated
updrafts before finally lining out later in the afternoon as it
pushes into Oklahoma. With a wide buoyant sector, residence time
within the zone of surface-based effective inflow layer air will
be maximized, and with ample instability, shear, and lapse rates,
severe storms appear likely. In initial development, a large hail
threat (up to tennis ball size, perhaps) looks most likely. There
will also be a window of opportunity for a brief tornado threat
if storms become rooted along the boundary, given the modest low-
level lapse rates and large CAPE. Helicity is rather marginal and
LCL heights may be a little high, and while the threat for
tornadoes is lower, it is not zero in any initial development
along the boundary within some sort of localized vorticity
maxima. Certainly the greater threat will lie south of the
Oklahoma border, but cannot be ruled out as far north as
Chautauqua/Montgomery/Labette counties. As storms quickly begin
to form clusters and then line out, the main threat will
transition to more of a damaging wind threat in far southeast
Kansas. Agree with the previous forecast that winds within the
60-70mph range are possible within the upscale development in far
southeast Kansas.

Storms should exit southeast Kansas by around 00z this evening. A
second line of convection may move across northeast Kansas along the
fringes of the forecast area this evening. Although thunderstorms
are unlikely, any showers may contain some brief gusty winds.

Heading into tomorrow, drier air will be ushered into the region
with gusty north post-frontal winds. Temperatures will be cooler
than the previous days but will gradually warm throughout the rest
of the week. Winds switch back around to blow out of the south as
ridging builds into the region from the west. By Friday and
Saturday, temperatures may reach into the upper 80s to low 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

Another shortwave will move through the region on Saturday night.
Agree with the previous discussion that PoPs may be over-done on
Saturday evening, with precipitation more likely after midnight or
so. The GFS is coming around to agree more with the ECMWF for storm
chances on Sunday, with precip and the front well to the east of the
region on Sunday. Therefore, if the current trends hold Sunday could
end up being dry, and suspect that the current forecast is over-done
precipitation wise. Did go ahead and trend PoPs down during Sunday
evening and the overnight period from the initial model blend.
However, given the uncertainty this far out, will continue to
monitor over the next several days as the details become more
clear.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

A strong cold front, currently located across central KS, near
KHUT, will continue to push southeast this afternoon, reaching KICT
by around 19-20z with a wind shift to the NW.  As the front pushes
south, expect TSRA to develop along or just east of the KS Turnpike.
So will go with a VCTS for KICT initially from 18-21z and eventually
for KCNU. Could see some higher end TSRA for KCNU later this
afternoon, so will go with tempo group with MVFR vsbys, variable
gusty winds of 25 to 45 kts with +TSRA.

As the front pushes south by this evening, expect gusty NW winds on
the backside of the front, with VFR conditions for most locations.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    53  72  46  78 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      51  72  44  79 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          51  71  45  77 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        51  70  45  78 /  20   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   52  71  46  78 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         48  74  42  81 /  20   0   0   0
Great Bend      48  74  42  81 /  20   0   0   0
Salina          51  71  44  79 /  20   0   0   0
McPherson       50  71  43  78 /  20   0   0   0
Coffeyville     51  69  46  75 /  50   0   0   0
Chanute         50  68  46  74 /  40   0   0   0
Iola            50  68  46  74 /  40   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    50  68  47  74 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...Ketcham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
350 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-292100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
350 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms have formed in south central and southeast Kansas and
will continue moving southeast through early evening. Some of these
storms will be severe, especially east of the Kansas Turnpike in
southeast Kansas. Both tennis ball sized hail and 60 to 70 mph
winds are possible with discrete storms, however a transition to
primarily damaging winds is likely as the storms congeal into a
line. In far southeast Kansas, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
For more details, see the Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches
that remain in effect.

A second round of showers or thunderstorms later this evening may
contain gusty winds, but widespread severe weather with that
activity is unlikely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Periods of thunderstorms are forecast Saturday night through
Monday. There remains some uncertainty with this system, so the
details will become more clear in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible in southeast Kansas this afternoon.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
407 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     HAIL             2 SE BURDEN             37.29N 96.73W
04/28/2020  E1.00 INCH       COWLEY             KS   STORM CHASER

            MOSTLY NICKEL-SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW LARGER
            STONES MIXED IN. REPORT SOUTH OF BURDEN.

&&

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
416 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HAIL             GRENOLA                 37.35N 96.45W
04/28/2020  E1.00 INCH       ELK                KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL, WITH
            OCCASIONAL QUARTERS.

&&

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
437 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             SEDAN                   37.13N 96.18W
04/28/2020  M1.00 INCH       CHAUTAUQUA         KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            JUST NORTHEAST OF TOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
447 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N HAVANA              37.12N 95.94W
04/28/2020  E50 MPH          MONTGOMERY         KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
501 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND GST     THAYER                  37.49N 95.47W
04/28/2020  M60 MPH          NEOSHO             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
515 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     TSTM WND GST     COFFEYVILLE AIRPORT     37.10N 95.57W
04/28/2020  M64 MPH          MONTGOMERY         KS   ASOS

            PEAK WIND GUST AT KCFV.

&&

MARTIN