Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 257PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

Tonight:

24 hours later, models still showing considerable variation in
850MB flow tonight, with NAM still the most agressive with
inflow, which results in well organized MCS moving quickly
southeast, affecting about the southwest half of forecast area.
ARW/NMM are weaker with 850MB flow, turning corfidi vectors more
eastward, resulting in less organized/more widespread area of
storms moving across the northern half of forecast area. HRRR/RAP
are not really organized, and likely underplay western KS
convection. Their solutions show more development over the area
rather than storms moving into the area. Plan is to not stray too
far from going forecast, and mention conditional strong/severe
chances in far west. Flooding rainfall is a distinct possibility
given copious low level moisture, but lack of a specific
focus, inability to refine area and likely isolated locations
precludes a flood watch.

Thursday-Friday:
Guidance continue to show relatively high chances for rain on
Thursday, gradually waning from northwest to southeast on Friday.
This is plausible given rich moisture and 300MB trough slowly
moving across the area during the day. Precipitation chances
should wane Thursday night with loss of heating and passage of
trough, but a trailing trough will approach on Friday, which
should enhance lift Friday-Friday night. End of precipitation
Friday-Friday night will be a race between drier air filtering in
and the timing of the trailing trough. On Thursday, temperatures
will likely be suppressed in the north with extensive clouds and
rain, but some breaks and warmer air (sans MCS) will tentatively
go warmer in the south. Cooler air will keep temperatures near 80
areawide on Friday.

Saturday:
Will linger a chance of rain in southeast KS during the day,
although this is highly dependent on timing of the second upper
trough and dry air. A third upper trough will be approaching from
the northwest Saturday afternoon-evening, leading to small chances
of storms in central KS. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

No significant changes to initialization grids. Will keep a small
chance of storms in southeast KS on Sunday as upper trough swings
through and a small chance for elevated storms in northwest
sections Tuesday night given northwest flow and some return
moisture. Otherwise dry and much cooler normal temperatures are
expected. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

A complex of thunderstorms over northwest Kansas may grow upscale
impacting much of central and south central Kansas later this
evening. Other development appears likely as we move through the
overnight and into the day tomorrow ahead of a shortwave trough
impacting the area. A cold front will arrive late tonight/early on
Thu ushering in northerly winds with continued chances for post-
frontal storm activity. Very heavy rain may drive flight
categories to MVFR or IFR at times with efficient rainfall
anticipated. The better severe threat may remain west of our
forecast area but a few strong or marginally severe storms cannot
be ruled out, especially along and west of I-135 this evening.
MVFR may linger into the day on Thu with some more transient low
ceilings possible through the early morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  85  67  81 /  70  50  50  30
Hutchinson      69  82  65  79 /  50  60  50  20
Newton          69  81  65  79 /  60  60  50  30
ElDorado        69  83  67  79 /  60  60  50  30
Winfield-KWLD   70  86  67  80 /  40  50  60  40
Russell         67  79  62  80 /  70  60  50  10
Great Bend      67  79  63  79 /  60  60  50  10
Salina          69  80  65  81 /  50  60  50  20
McPherson       69  81  65  79 /  50  60  50  20
Coffeyville     71  86  69  80 /  50  50  60  50
Chanute         71  84  68  80 /  50  60  60  50
Iola            71  83  68  81 /  60  60  50  40
Parsons-KPPF    71  86  69  80 /  50  50  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
700 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-302145-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
700 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will persist into the evening hours across
the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. Torrential rain will likely
cause temporarily flooding of poor drainage areas.

Storms are expected to increase later this evening and overnight,
moving in from western Kansas. A few strong or marginally severe
storms, with winds to around 60 mph are possible late this evening,
roughly west of a line from Russell to Hutchinson to Anthony. The
biggest threat is localized flooding from torrential rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A couple more rounds of thunderstorms are expected through Friday
area wide and lingering into Saturday across southeast Kansas. There
will be a threat for heavy rainfall and localized flooding
with these storms. The heavy rain could lead to rises on some area
rivers and streams. Another round of storms is possible Sunday
across southeast Kansas. These are not expected to be strong or
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight...however rainfall
reports over an inch would be appreciated.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
819 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     TSTM WND GST     VALLEY CENTER           37.84N 97.37W
07/29/2020  E70 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 65 TO 70 MPH DOWNBURST.

&&

MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
822 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     TSTM WND GST     VALLEY CENTER           37.84N 97.37W
07/29/2020  E60 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

MWM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
847 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

KSZ047-048-050-300215-
Ellsworth KS-Rice KS-Barton KS-
847 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Ellsworth County in central Kansas...
  Rice County in central Kansas...
  Barton County in central Kansas...

* Until 915 PM CDT.

* At 845 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Bushton to near Radium...and moving southeast at 50 mph.

Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Great Bend, Lyons, Ellsworth, Hoisington, Sterling, Ellinwood,
  Wilson, Claflin, Kanopolis, Little River, Chase, Holyrood, Bushton,
  Geneseo, Pawnee Rock, Alden, Lorraine, Raymond, Frederick and Great
  Bend Airport.

LAT...LON 3870 9864 3870 9849 3883 9849 3886 9845
      3869 9793 3834 9793 3816 9815 3816 9822
      3817 9822 3817 9847 3826 9847 3826 9903
      3837 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 318DEG 42KT 3854 9844 3823 9890

VAUGHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
853 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     TSTM WND GST     COLWICH                 37.78N 97.54W
07/29/2020  M59 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MEASURED 59 MPH AT COLWICH FIRE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
859 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND GST     COLWICH                 37.78N 97.54W
07/29/2020  E80 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED.

&&

MWM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
908 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

KSZ048-050-051-067-300245-
Ellsworth KS-Reno KS-Rice KS-McPherson KS-
908 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Ellsworth County in central Kansas...
  Northwestern Reno County in south central Kansas...
  Rice County in central Kansas...
  Western McPherson County in central Kansas...

* Until 945 PM CDT.

* At 905 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Geneseo to near Raymond...and moving south at 25 mph.

Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 55 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lyons, Sterling, Nickerson, Little River, Chase, Arlington,
  Geneseo, Alden, Windom, Plevna, Abbyville, Raymond, Willowbrook and
  Kanopolis Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 9847 3867 9810 3846 9764 3787 9821
      3805 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0207Z 344DEG 24KT 3852 9819 3823 9844

VAUGHAN