Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 257PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

Tonight:

24 hours later, models still showing considerable variation in
850MB flow tonight, with NAM still the most agressive with
inflow, which results in well organized MCS moving quickly
southeast, affecting about the southwest half of forecast area.
ARW/NMM are weaker with 850MB flow, turning corfidi vectors more
eastward, resulting in less organized/more widespread area of
storms moving across the northern half of forecast area. HRRR/RAP
are not really organized, and likely underplay western KS
convection. Their solutions show more development over the area
rather than storms moving into the area. Plan is to not stray too
far from going forecast, and mention conditional strong/severe
chances in far west. Flooding rainfall is a distinct possibility
given copious low level moisture, but lack of a specific
focus, inability to refine area and likely isolated locations
precludes a flood watch.

Thursday-Friday:
Guidance continue to show relatively high chances for rain on
Thursday, gradually waning from northwest to southeast on Friday.
This is plausible given rich moisture and 300MB trough slowly
moving across the area during the day. Precipitation chances
should wane Thursday night with loss of heating and passage of
trough, but a trailing trough will approach on Friday, which
should enhance lift Friday-Friday night. End of precipitation
Friday-Friday night will be a race between drier air filtering in
and the timing of the trailing trough. On Thursday, temperatures
will likely be suppressed in the north with extensive clouds and
rain, but some breaks and warmer air (sans MCS) will tentatively
go warmer in the south. Cooler air will keep temperatures near 80
areawide on Friday.

Saturday:
Will linger a chance of rain in southeast KS during the day,
although this is highly dependent on timing of the second upper
trough and dry air. A third upper trough will be approaching from
the northwest Saturday afternoon-evening, leading to small chances
of storms in central KS. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

No significant changes to initialization grids. Will keep a small
chance of storms in southeast KS on Sunday as upper trough swings
through and a small chance for elevated storms in northwest
sections Tuesday night given northwest flow and some return
moisture. Otherwise dry and much cooler normal temperatures are
expected. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

A complex of thunderstorms over northwest Kansas may grow upscale
impacting much of central and south central Kansas later this
evening. Other development appears likely as we move through the
overnight and into the day tomorrow ahead of a shortwave trough
impacting the area. A cold front will arrive late tonight/early on
Thu ushering in northerly winds with continued chances for post-
frontal storm activity. Very heavy rain may drive flight
categories to MVFR or IFR at times with efficient rainfall
anticipated. The better severe threat may remain west of our
forecast area but a few strong or marginally severe storms cannot
be ruled out, especially along and west of I-135 this evening.
MVFR may linger into the day on Thu with some more transient low
ceilings possible through the early morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  85  67  81 /  70  50  50  30
Hutchinson      69  82  65  79 /  50  60  50  20
Newton          69  81  65  79 /  60  60  50  30
ElDorado        69  83  67  79 /  60  60  50  30
Winfield-KWLD   70  86  67  80 /  40  50  60  40
Russell         67  79  62  80 /  70  60  50  10
Great Bend      67  79  63  79 /  60  60  50  10
Salina          69  80  65  81 /  50  60  50  20
McPherson       69  81  65  79 /  50  60  50  20
Coffeyville     71  86  69  80 /  50  50  60  50
Chanute         71  84  68  80 /  50  60  60  50
Iola            71  83  68  81 /  60  60  50  40
Parsons-KPPF    71  86  69  80 /  50  50  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
700 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-302145-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
700 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will persist into the evening hours across
the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. Torrential rain will likely
cause temporarily flooding of poor drainage areas.

Storms are expected to increase later this evening and overnight,
moving in from western Kansas. A few strong or marginally severe
storms, with winds to around 60 mph are possible late this evening,
roughly west of a line from Russell to Hutchinson to Anthony. The
biggest threat is localized flooding from torrential rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A couple more rounds of thunderstorms are expected through Friday
area wide and lingering into Saturday across southeast Kansas. There
will be a threat for heavy rainfall and localized flooding
with these storms. The heavy rain could lead to rises on some area
rivers and streams. Another round of storms is possible Sunday
across southeast Kansas. These are not expected to be strong or
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight...however rainfall
reports over an inch would be appreciated.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
242 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

KSZ049-292015-
Saline KS-
242 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  East central Saline County in central Kansas...

* Until 315 PM CDT.

* At 241 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall just
  north of Gypsum, or 11 miles east of Salina...moving east at 20
  mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm and locally
heavy rainfall rates.

* Locations impacted include...
  Gypsum, New Cambria and Kipp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9737 3870 9750 3888 9751 3889 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 265DEG 16KT 3877 9742

DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
258 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

KSZ033-292030-
Lincoln KS-
258 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Lincoln County in central Kansas...

* Until 330 PM CDT.

* At 256 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall over Lincoln...
  moving east-southeast at 20 mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm along with
heavy rainfall rates.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lincoln, Beverly and Westfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 9793 3891 9823 3907 9822 3912 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 280DEG 16KT 3902 9813

DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
723 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

KSZ068-069-083-300100-
Butler KS-Harvey KS-Sedgwick KS-
723 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  West central Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Southern Harvey County in south central Kansas...
  Northeastern Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...

* Until 800 PM CDT.

* At 719 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall near Valley
  Center...moving south at 20 mph.

Hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wichita, Newton, Andover, Augusta, Park City, Valley Center, Bel
  Aire, Maize, Halstead, Sedgwick, Benton, Downtown Wichita, Kechi,
  Eastborough, Bentley, East Wichita, Northeast Wichita, Mcconnell
  Air Force Base, South Wichita and Santa Fe Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3799 9763 3802 9723 3766 9692 3759 9732
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 338DEG 17KT 3790 9732

VAUGHAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
756 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

KSZ068-069-083-300130-
Butler KS-Harvey KS-Sedgwick KS-
756 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  West central Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Southeastern Harvey County in south central Kansas...
  Eastern Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...

* Until 830 PM CDT.

* At 754 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Sedgwick...moving southeast at
  30 mph.

Hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wichita, Derby, Andover, Haysville, Augusta, Park City, Valley
  Center, Bel Aire, Rose Hill, Maize, Sedgwick, Towanda, Benton,
  Whitewater, Downtown Wichita, Kechi, Eastborough, Bentley,
  Northeast Wichita and East Wichita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 9764 3800 9739 3797 9713 3767 9682
      3756 9732
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 309DEG 24KT 3788 9738

VAUGHAN