Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
237 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

Latest water vapor imagery shows a trough over the Mid and Upper
Mississippi Valleys, with ridging over the western CONUS and anchored
over the southeast. The TN Valley remains on the periphery of these
features, with seasonably warm conditions. Area radars show isolated
showers and thunderstorms over the area, with activity initiating
along outflow boundaries. This trend should continue over the next
few hours, as daytime heating aids in the focus for convection. Much
like yesterday, some storms may become strong and produce gusty
winds. This activity will quickly dissipate around sunset, leaving
seasonably mild conditions overnight. With decent radiational
cooling once again tonight, lows will fall into the lower 70s by
daybreak.

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

The shortwave trough over the Mississippi Valley will weaken and move
eastward on Wednesday while the ridge over the southeast retreats to
the south. Moisture over the TN Valley will remain abundant, as PW
values climb to near 2 inches. With less subsidence over the area on
Wednesday, we will likely see a greater coverage of convection that
observed today and yesterday. However, while blended guidances paints
60-70% PoPs tomorrow afternoon, confidence is not high enough to keep
this in the forecast. Thus, PoPs were maxed at around 50%. A weak
frontal boundary will sag southward on Thursday, and attempt to reach
the TN Valley. However, with some influence from the ridge still over
the area, along with the incredibly moist airmass, this boundary will
likely stall to our north before dissipating. Nonetheless, our
northeastern counties may see numerous storms on Thursday afternoon.
As with any day in the summer, these storms will be unorganized and
pose a threat for gusty winds up to 50 mph.

Temps will generally remain near normal through the short term
period, except for areas that receive rainfall. Highs will warm into
the upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight is the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

Mid level ridging over the Plains will build eastward during the
long term period. This will lead to warming temperatures and lowering
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Latest guidance suggest that
the TN Valley will remain on the eastern periphery of the ridge,
keeping flow aloft more northerly. This will set the stage for
potential shortwaves to move southward over the area and provide an
enhancement to our diurnally drive convection. It's too soon to
really say what, if any, of these disturbances makes their way into
the area so we will maintain scattered showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon. Temps through the long term will almost be a rise and
repeat each day with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in
the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
throughout the afternoon, and some may be in the vicinity of terminals.
Winds will generally be light and variable, barring any gusts from
proximity thunderstorms. If thunderstorms become more numerous in the
vicinity of the airport, amendments may be necessary. Localized fog
development is possible closer to daybreak, but is not expected to
affect visibility at the terminals.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...73
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...LH

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
240 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-221045-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
240 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening with
the primary threats posed by any stronger storms being lightning,
gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Thunderstorms will increase in coverage again on Wednesday and
continue through at least Friday. Some of these thunderstorms during
this time period may be capable of producing strong gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall. Thunderstorm chances will continue through
the weekend into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
not anticipated at this time.

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