Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
322 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Remainder of today and tonight)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Several broken bands of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
progress eastward across the region this afternoon, in the broader
circulation around TD Laura, as it lifts northeastward into western
KY. Very little has changed with the kinematic and thermodynamic
assessments made in the morning update, and the risk for brief
tornadoes and strong convective wind gusts will continue to shift
eastward with the broken bands and embedded supercells.

Models still suggest that the mid-level vorticity lobe related to
Laura will open into a trough overnight, as it spreads rapidly
eastward across southern KY and into the southern Appalachians. A
final band of moderate/heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms (marking
the outer edge of the remnant low-level circulation) is currently
developing from east-central AR into southwestern TN, and this
feature will likely spread slowly southeastward across the region
this evening and early Saturday morning. However, deep-layer flow
will veer sharply to the northwest as the trough advances into the
southern Appalachians, and this should end the threat for widespread
precipitation across the southeastern portion of the CWFA between
09-12Z.

The magnitude of both deep-layer and low-level shear depicted in
forecast soundings suggest that at least a limited threat for brief
mesocyclones/tornadoes will persist along the final rainband well
into the evening, in spite of the nocturnal decrease in instability.
The potential for flash flooding will also continue, especially in
saturated portions of northwest AL, and the FFA will remain in effect
through 3 AM CDT. Otherwise, we anticipate a gradual decrease in
southwesterly gradient flow through sunrise, but the combination of
elevated winds and low stratus clouds will keep temperatures in the
l-m 70s.

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

A few lingering pockets of light rain will be possible across mainly
the southeastern half of the forecast area after sunrise on
Saturday. However, this should be fairly short-lived and we otherwise
anticipate a dry and warmer day. Northwest flow aloft will advect a
drier mid-level airmass into the region, resulting in clearing skies
and allowing temperatures to warm back into the u80s-l90s. To our
north, a cold front related to a northern stream trough across
southern Ontario/Quebec will drift southeastward across the OH Valley
during the day, and may initiate a few showers and thunderstorms
which could potentially spread as far southeastward as northern TN
before dissipating Saturday evening.

Meanwhile, to our west, we expect to see the rapid development of
deep convection across eastern KS/OK late Saturday afternoon, which
will likely grow upscale into a fairly large MCS over the Ozarks
Saturday evening, as a shortwave trough digs southeastward across MO.
It is becoming increasingly likely that this complex of
thunderstorms will spread southeastward, perhaps reaching the TN
Valley early Sunday morning. At least one or perhaps a couple of
clusters of thunderstorms (potentially initiated by outflow from the
initial system) will shift east-southeastward through the region
Sunday afternoon and night as the aformentioned shortwave trough
tracks eastward across KY. The active pattern will also persist into
the day on Monday, as another mid-level disturbance may initiate a
second MCS that could drop southeastward into the TN Valley from the
central Plains. Conditions appear favorable for strong storms
throughout the period, given bulk shear in the 20-30 knot range and
moderately strong instability. However, due to uncertainty in timing
of each complex, we have kept POPs generally in the 60-70% range.
Highs should reach the mid 80s both Sunday and Monday, with lows in
the l-m 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

The remnants of tropical system Laura by the start of this period
should be located east of Labrador, heading further eastward across
the north Atlantic. A frontal boundary draped SW from that system
will extend from eastern Oklahoma, across the Tennessee Valley and
the Carolina's coast. Convergence and lift along this boundary, and
deep moisture will bring scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday.

The front will move northward Tue night into Wed as upper ridging
reamplifies somewhat. This should result in rain chances lowering
somewhat for the mid and latter half of the week. With moisture
persisting, maintained a diurnal trend, with higher rain chances
during the day for the Wed-Fri timeframe. Daily high and low
temperatures for the extended should remain in the mid/upper 80s,
with night time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Several bands of SHRA/TSRA are expected to shift eastward across the
region today and tonight, in the circulation around TD Laura. Based
on latest radar data, we have introduced TEMPO groups to address the
initial rainband, which will impact MSL/19-22Z and HSV/20-24Z.
However, additional showers and thunderstorms may develop on either
side of the primary band, so amendments may be required this aftn. A
more widespread area of rain and embedded TSRA will shift eastward
across the region this evening and overnight, warranting SHRA/VCTS as
the prevailing weather condition btwn 00-07Z. It does appear as if
the western edge of this precipitation will quickly shift eastward
prior to sunrise, and a dry forecast was maintained for the 07-18Z
timeframe. Recent trends in surface observations suggest that the low
stratus deck will also continue to lift to low-VFR levels and become
more scattered as the aftn progresses, but very low (perhaps IFR-
level) cigs may return in the wake of rainfall early Saturday
morning. Brisk SSW flow in the 15G25 knot range will persist today,
before veering to WSW and subsiding overnight. Although this will
reduce the threat for LLWS, strong flow of 30-35 knots is anticipated
in the 1500-2000 ft layer thru 07Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for ALZ001>005.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for TNZ076-096.

&&

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...70/DD

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
551 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

ALZ001>005-TNZ076-096-291000-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Moore-Lincoln-
551 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Alabama,
northwest Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Thunderstorms and showers are likely today into tonight, especially
this afternoon through the evening hours. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, with damaging wind gusts, hail and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Also, heavy rainfall may lead to
excessive runoff and flash flooding in a few locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

After a diminishing coverage of thunderstorms Saturday, a frontal
boundary will stall over the area from Sunday into early next week.
This will bring additional chances of thunderstorms each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
possible this afternoon and evening.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

ALZ006>010-016-TNZ097-291000-
Madison-Morgan-Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Franklin TN-
551 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Alabama,
northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms and showers are likely today into tonight. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with damaging wind
gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado. The threat of severe weather is
most likely last this afternoon and evening. Also, locally heavy
rainfall may lead to excessive runoff and isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

After a diminishing coverage of thunderstorms Saturday, a frontal
boundary will stall over the area from Sunday into early next week.
This will bring additional chances of thunderstorms each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
possible this afternoon into tonight.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
205 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

TNZ076-096-281945-
Moore TN-Lincoln TN-
205 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MOORE AND NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 205 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Pulaski, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Lynchburg, Petersburg, Mulberry, Chestnut Ridge,
Howell, Belleville, Dellrose, Mimosa and Booneville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3535 8654 3536 8649 3523 8638 3508 8683
      3526 8683 3525 8675 3531 8668 3533 8660
      3536 8660 3537 8659
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 241DEG 30KT 3514 8687

GH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
247 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

ALZ001>003-282015-
Lauderdale AL-Franklin AL-Colbert AL-
247 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAUDERDALE...
SOUTHWESTERN COLBERT AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
CDT...

At 247 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Tishomingo State Park, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Muscle Shoals, Sheffield, Tuscumbia, Cherokee, Posey Loop,
Pogo, Mt Hester, Srygley Church and New Bethel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong gusty winds will be capable of knocking down small tree limbs
along with other small unsecured items. Seek safe shelter until this
storm has passed.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3459 8814 3471 8812 3490 8779 3468 8760
      3451 8809
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 238DEG 36KT 3464 8807

KDW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
254 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

ALZ005-TNZ096-282045-
Limestone AL-Lincoln TN-
254 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LIMESTONE AND WESTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 254 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Ardmore, or 11 miles southeast of Pulaski, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Ardmore, Petersburg, Howell, Dellrose, Cash Point,
Skinem, Molino, Mcburg and Coldwater.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 8646 3496 8690 3499 8692 3499 8684
      3526 8683 3525 8675 3531 8668 3533 8661
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 242DEG 22KT 3510 8686

GH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
313 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

ALZ001-002-282045-
Lauderdale AL-Colbert AL-
313 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAUDERDALE AND
CENTRAL COLBERT COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 312 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cherokee, or 11 miles west of Tuscumbia, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Muscle Shoals, Sheffield, Tuscumbia, Cherokee,
Underwood-Petersville, Red Rock, Posey Loop, Pride Landing and
Northwest Alabama Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong gusty winds will be capable of knocking down small tree limbs
along with other small unsecured items. Seek safe shelter until this
storm has passed.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 8793 3472 8802 3492 8770 3471 8758
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 238DEG 24KT 3470 8790

KDW