Wind Advisory 22, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

068 
WWUS72 KGSP 232010
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
310 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

NCZ051-052-058-059-240415-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0022.201223T2100Z-201224T1700Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Waynesville and Tuckasegee
310 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Elevations above 3500 feet in Swain, Haywood, Graham 
  and Northern Jackson Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to noon EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

PM

088 
WWUS72 KGSP 240314
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1014 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

NCZ033-048>050-240930-
/O.EXA.KGSP.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-201224T1700Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, and Luck
1014 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with frequent gusts to 40 mph,
  and occasional gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Avery, Madison, Yancey and Mitchell Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ051-052-058-059-240930-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-201224T1700Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Waynesville and Tuckasegee
1014 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Haywood, Swain, Graham and Northern Jackson Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
Wimberley

392 
WWUS72 KGSP 240547
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1247 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

NCZ053-062>064-241700-
/O.EXA.KGSP.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-201224T1700Z/
Buncombe-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Including the cities of Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands
1247 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph at
  times. 

* WHERE...Elevations at and above 3500 feet in Buncombe, Macon,
  Southern Jackson, and Transylvania Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-241700-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-201224T1700Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, Waynesville, 
and Tuckasegee
1247 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph at
  times. 

* WHERE...Avery, Madison, Yancey, Mitchell, Swain, Haywood,
  Graham, and Northern Jackson Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

HG

986 
WWUS72 KGSP 240837
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
337 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-241700-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-201224T1700Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, Waynesville, 
Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands
337 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph at 
  times.

* WHERE...Most of the mountains of western North Carolina at
  elevations of 3500 feet and higher.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

HG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
331 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist across the region today. A strong cold
front will approach the area with abundant moisture on Thursday
before the front moves off the Eastern Seaboard on Christmas Day.
Very cold air will return behind the front. Dry high pressure will
persist over the weekend, with another cold front arriving early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 am EST: An amplifying wave continues to deepen over the
northern Plains early this morning, while a broad upper ridge
persists downstream over the eastern CONUS. Under the ridge, surface
high pressure centered along the eastern seaboard will migrate
offshore today, with southerly return flow developing across the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. The warm advection will be
offset slightly by increasing high clouds through the day, with some
lowering stratocumulus on developing weak upglide late. Overall,
heating should be sufficient for continued above climo temps
throughout.

The northern Plains system will quickly carve out a full latitude
trough over the central CONUS tonight. In response, isentropic lift
and a steady uptick in moisture from the west will lead to
increasing clouds through the evening hours over our area, followed
by increasing rain shower chances for the overnight hours. There is
some potential for very weak in situ cold air damming to develop
tonight, especially over the I-40 corridor in the NC foothills and
Piedmont. However, the increasingly offshore parent high location
and improving southerly flow should keep any wedging shallow and
short-lived through daybreak Thursday. Meanwhile, the upstream,
strong, surface cold front in the Mississippi River Valley by this
evening will continue to move east overnight, with deeper moisture
steadily increasing - especially across the southern Appalachians.
Associated upper jet forcing east of the 140+ kt jet axis rounding
the trough will likely arrive in the southern mountains by 12Z
Thursday coincident with the arrival of deep moisture in the 09Z to
12Z timeframe. This will lead to high categorical rain shower
coverage in the southern mountains late tonight, ranging down to
solid chances in the lower southeast Piedmont. In addition, a 50+
kt, southerly, low-level jet will arrive in the southern mountains
tonight. A high elevation Wind Advisory will be posted in and near
the Smokies for late today through Thursday morning until the
southerly jet moves east of the high terrain. Instability should be
too limited for any nocturnal thunder, but temperatures and
dewpoints will likely rise overnight throughout the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EST Wednesday...An active period thru the short term.
Waves of upper level energy ahead of a stout h5 trof will increase
over the FA during the day, while a wavy cold front pushes over the
NC mtns arnd daybreak. Expect a stg llvl s/ly jet to develop on the
order of 50-60 kts, which will advect high amts of GOM moisture into
the FA. Precip will become widespread rather quickly before
noon, with topo lift -shra enhanced by pockets of upper energy. The
srn BR still looks to be the target for more sustained rainfall and
totals thru the day will likely reach 2-3 inches and create
localized minor flooding issues by the afternoon. No flood watch
will be issued on this shift as the expected impacts look to remain
relatively small scale.

As the system tracks east, the environ will become weakly unstable
across the srn and ern zones by early afternoon. Soundings show
100-200 J/kg of muCAPE and even some measure of sfc-based
instability. So, with increasing pre-frontal lift and high layered
shear, semi-organized lines of convection will be possible which
could produce stg/svr outflows and possibly a tornado or two, esp
across the I-77 corridor where 0-1 km helicity values max out arnd
400 m2/s2. The convec threat will push east by late afternoon as
good guidance agreement is had with the continued eastward
progression of the sfc front.

As the upper trof pushes in across the wrn zones during the later
afternoon, thickness levels fall and profiles quickly drop below
freezing. A rapid transition to snow will occur across the higher
peaks, then snow levels work down to the valley floors by before
midnight. Currently, snowfall levels look arnd advisory or low-end
warning levels abv 3.5 Kft with sub-advisory amts over the valleys.
However, these totals could change a bit over the next couple fcst
packages. There looks to a better chance of accumulating low-end
snow across the nrn NC fthills Thu night as the brunt of the h5 vort
max crosses overhead and enhances lift to any lingering llvl
moisture. Wont count out a few flakes east of the mtns north of the
I-85 corridor during this time as well, but no accums will be had
as the sub-cloud layer remains too dry and a moist dendritic zone
very shallow. Max temp Thu will be fairly warm with good llvl waa
during the day. Highs will likely reach a few cats abv normal. With
a definitive cP airmass change Thu night...max/min temps Fri and Fri
night will drop to 10-15 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM EST Wednesday...A cP sfc high continues to engulf the
region over the weekend and temps will modify back to normal levels
by Sun. By Sun evening, the high axis will shift offshore in response
to a weak h5 trof diving thru the OH Valley. This trof will develop
a sfc low and pull it NE while a weakly supported cold front
advances toward the FA Sun night. Not expecting a lot of precip with
this front as moisture and dyno lift will remain low-end. However,
enuf topo lift will be had to help generate -shra turning over to
-snsh Sun night in diurnal cooling. Snowfall amts look to be low-end
and sub-advisory before the snow transitions back to -ra shorty aft
daybreak Mon. Temps outside the mtns will be cold enuf to support a
-ra/sn mix or flurries, yet this will be short lived and no accums
will be had as llvl moisture wanes quickly. Another cP airmass mixes
in a little behind the front late Mon and the atmos will remain
deeply dry thru the remainder of the period. Max and min temps Mon
thru Tue will likely be arnd or a little below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect mainly high clouds to increase today
ahead of the falling heights over the central CONUS. Some VFR level
stratocumulus could fill in overhead by late afternoon as moist
upglide gets started. The real increase and lowering of the cloud
bases will occur later this evening and overnight, with a steady
transition into MVFR through 06Z, and then IFR with the arrival of
the steadier rain showers overnight into Thursday morning. Winds
will be light today and mainly from the ESE, but with some ENE or NE
flow at times. Southeast winds will increase at KAVL through the
period and low end gusts will be possible with peak mixing today.

Outlook: A strong and moist cold front, with associated widespread
restrictions, will cross the region on Thursday and move east of the
area on Friday. Some wintry precipitation will be possible over the
NC mountains Thursday afternoon and night. Dry high pressure will
return through the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  89%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  92%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  88%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  90%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  91%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory above 3500 feet from 4 PM this afternoon to noon
     EST Thursday for NCZ051-052-058-059.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
629 PM EST Tue Dec 22 2020

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-232330-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
629 PM EST Tue Dec 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A moist cold front will bring moderate to heavy rain across the area
on Thursday. Isolated minor flooding issues are possible.

A strong low level jet will develop ahead of a cold front Thursday
and bring strong gusty winds across the higher elevations of the
North Carolina mountains.

Light snow showers will develop across the North Carolina mountains
Thursday night and continue into Friday. Roadways could become slick
and impact travel.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-232330-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
629 PM EST Tue Dec 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A moist cold front will bring moderate to heavy rain across the area
on Thursday. Isolated minor flooding issues are possible.

In addition, there is currently a Marginal Risk for isolated severe
thunderstorms and/or brief weak tornadoes over the I-77 corridor
Thursday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

JPT