Tornado Warning 61, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

432 
WWUS52 KGSP 112118
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
518 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

SCC023-091-112145-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0061.000000T0000Z-201011T2145Z/
Chester SC-York SC-
518 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL CHESTER AND SOUTH CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES...
    
At 518 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 6 miles northwest of Chester, or near Lowrys, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Lowrys around 520 PM EDT.
  Mcconnells around 530 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

A brief, weak tornado is likely. Mobile homes could be flipped.
Falling trees can cause death or serious injury, and major damage to
houses. Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of
a sturdy building.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3471 8129 3479 8136 3496 8121 3477 8102
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 231DEG 22KT 3479 8126 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

SGL

116 
WWUS52 KGSP 112129
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
529 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

SCC023-091-112145-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0061.000000T0000Z-201011T2145Z/
Chester SC-York SC-
529 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL CHESTER AND SOUTH CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES...
    
At 529 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles north of Chester, or near Mcconnells, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles.

This dangerous storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north
central Chester and south central York Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

A brief, weak tornado is likely. Mobile homes could be flipped.
Falling trees can cause death or serious injury, and major damage to
houses. Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of
a sturdy building.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3473 8124 3483 8132 3496 8121 3477 8102
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 231DEG 22KT 3483 8120 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

SGL

281 
WWUS52 KGSP 112139
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
539 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

SCC023-091-112149-
/O.EXP.KGSP.TO.W.0061.000000T0000Z-201011T2145Z/
Chester SC-York SC-
539 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHESTER AND SOUTH CENTRAL
YORK COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3473 8124 3483 8132 3496 8121 3477 8102
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 231DEG 22KT 3487 8114 

$$

SGL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
308 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of post tropical system Delta will move off the east
coast on Monday. Gradual drying will occur through mid week despite
the approach and passage of a weak front on Tuesday. Drier high
pressure will settle in behind the front Wednesday through Thursday.
A sharper cold front will move through the region on Friday, with
much colder air arriving next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 150 pm Sunday: While the main area of heavy rain showers
associated with the remnants of TC Delta continue to push east of
the forecast area early this afternoon, there will be one last area
of concern immediately ahead of the upper trough axis, where
coverage and intensity of showers is steadily increasing across the
SC and GA Piedmont. Per the latest SPC Mesoanalysis, surface temps
in the mid to upper 70s have allowed the air mass to weakly
destabilize in this area to the tune of around 500-1000 J/kg of
sbCAPE. While bulk shear remains more than adequate for organized
convection in this area, the stronger low level shear and helicity
parameters have shifted east of the forecast area. with the weak
surface/in-situ CAD boundary lingering in the vicinity of I-85,
still wouldn't completely rule out a brief spin-up with any deeper
cells crossing this boundary through the afternoon.

Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the Blue Ridge through the
evening hours, and this will be allowed to stand, as runoff issues
linger in many areas from the northeast GA mtns into the NC
foothills. While the organized flash flood threat appears to be
waning, the potential remains for localized excessive rainfall
rates, especially if any training cells are able to develop over
locations with very poor antecedent conditions. Showers will
otherwise taper off from mid through late evening, with only
lingering token small chances lingering after midnight. Drying mid
and upper levels atop unseasonably moist low levels will produce
favorable conditions for fog and/or low stratus, with (at least)
locally dense fog likely. Min temps will remain well above
climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As 200 pm EDT Sunday: During the morning hours on Monday, the
remnants of Delta should be to the east of the cwa, near the
Delmarva. The associated shortwave will help eject what's left of
Delta offshore by Monday afternoon. Drier air begins to filter into
the mid and upper levels, while residual moisture in the lower level
sticks around. This can allow for a few showers to linger over the
course of the day, mainly in the northern tier, as an approaching
front begins to move in from the west. Most of the activity from
this system will stay confined to the higher elevations as the
frontal boundary scoots through the cwa from west to east by 12Z-15Z
Tuesday. After the frontal passage, zonal flow aloft and a surface
high will set up shop over the region. A post-frontal environment
will prevail as better weather is in the making for the middle part
of the week. Temperatures are expected to run above climo through
the short term as high heights and abundant insolation will be in
store during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1255 pm EDT Sunday: Surface high pressure will be moving off
the mid Atlantic coast Wednesday evening as we will have one more
day of above normal temperatures on Thursday. Height falls will be
significant on Thursday over the northern Plains and upper
Mississippi Valley as a broad eastern trough begins to form.  As a
low pressure moves north from Ontario into Friday, a strong cold
front crosses the Appalachians.  The GFS has light precip over the
mountains with the frontal passage late Thursday night while it is
dry from near I-85 and south.  The ECMWF has a wide band of precip
with the front from late Thursday night through much of Friday
across the western Carolinas and NE GA. Consistent with the ongoing
forecast we expect a narrow zone of moisture along the cold front
with this zone being thinner further south.  Much drier and cooler
air will follow the frontal passage and frost/freeze concerns may
redevelop across the NC mountains for next weekend. Temperatures
will drop to about ten degrees bellow normal next weekend then
become milder going into the early part of next week. It may be a
while before the next significant rain.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Relative lull in showers will soon come to an
end across the forecast area, as activity is gradually blossoming
within weakly unstable air across upstate SC. Scattered to numerous
showers and perhaps a few TS will spread northeast across the
terminal forecast area throughout the afternoon, warranting tempos
for reduced visby in SHRA. Again, TS cannot be ruled out, and A VCTS
has been included at the upstate SC terminals from late afternoon
into early evening, but overall coverage should remain limited.
Lingering showers should otherwise taper off by late evening or so.

Lingering IFR cigs should improve to MVFR, and possibly VFR late
this afternoon/evening. However, drying mid and high levels atop
continued very moist low levels is expected to result in widespread
low stratus and fog, mainly between midnight and sunrise. LIFR cigs
appear to be s slam dunk, and while IFR visby is generally forecast,
LIFR or even occl VLIFR is within the realm of possibility. Fog and
stratus should burn off at most sites during late morning.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conds are expected through the week, except for
perhaps areas of morning fog and low stratus, primarily in the
mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High  83%     Med   73%     High  92%     High  82%
KGSP       High  85%     Med   72%     High  85%     Med   75%
KAVL       High  90%     High  86%     High  88%     Med   71%
KHKY       High  96%     Med   78%     Med   70%     Med   77%
KGMU       High  84%     Med   77%     Med   73%     Med   69%
KAND       High  80%     High  81%     High  85%     Med   77%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for GAZ010-017.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ033-049-
     050-053-062>065-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
450 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-048-051-056-058-SCZ004>006-010-120900-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Swain-
Catawba-Graham-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-
Anderson-
450 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the
northwest Piedmont and western mountains of western North Carolina
and the western Upstate of South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Rain showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with the remnants
of post-tropical system Delta will continue to impact the area today
into tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding of low-
lying and poor drainage areas will be possible. The thunderstorms may
produce cloud to ground lightning and briefly gusty winds as well.
The showers and thunderstorms will steadily diminish from the
southwest tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-049-050-052-053-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-
120900-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
450 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, the mountains of Upstate South Carolina, and much of the
mountains and foothills of western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will produce
occasional cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and gusty winds today
into this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed flooding or severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines.

NCZ057-068>072-082-SCZ007>009-011>014-019-120900-
Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-
Greenwood-
450 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Piedmont North Carolina,
including the Charlotte Metro Area, and much of Upstate South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of post
tropical system Delta will continue to impact the area today into
tonight. Streams and main stem rivers will see sharp rises. Localized
flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas will be possible.

Some of the thunderstorms may become severe this afternoon and
evening, especially in locations southeast of I-85, and particularly
south and east of Charlotte. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
threat, but a few brief tornadoes are possible as well. The showers
and thunderstorms will diminish from the southwest tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1210 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

NCZ082-111645-
Union NC-
1210 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

...A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER WILL IMPACT EASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL 1245 PM
EDT...

At 1210 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a heavy rain shower 4
miles east of Monroe, or near Wingate, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Monroe, Wingate, Marshville, Unionville and New Salem.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

Doppler radar indicates weak rotation with this shower. Spin-up of a
very brief, weak tornado cannot be ruled out. Be prepared to take
immediate action if a tornado is sighted or a Tornado Warning is
issued.

LAT...LON 3497 8030 3490 8048 3496 8056 3517 8041
      3517 8039 3518 8037 3517 8036 3518 8033
      3517 8032 3518 8032 3518 8031 3516 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1610Z 226DEG 17KT 3497 8047

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW CLINTON           34.45N 81.88W
10/11/2020                   LAURENS            SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTED TREES BLOWN DOWN ON SPRINGDALE
            DR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW WATERLOO          34.34N 82.06W
10/11/2020                   LAURENS            SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTED TREES BLOWN DOWN ON RIVERFORK
            RD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW WATERLOO          34.34N 82.06W
10/11/2020                   LAURENS            SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTED TREES BLOWN DOWN ON RIVERFORK
            RD.

&&