Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
245 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
We can expect the isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
early in the week to become more numerous in the afternoon and
evening from mid to late week.  High high temperatures of a couple
degrees above normal early in the week will be near normal late in
the week under the considerable cloud cover.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 243 PM EDT Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms have
blossomed across northeast GA and Upstate SC over the past hour
per latest radar imagery, a few hours sooner than we've seen
over the past few days. Expect this trend to continue mainly
outside of the Blue Ridge across the FA given daytime heating,
available moisture, limited shear, and available CAPE 1000 to
3000 J/kg per latest mesoanalysis. Primary threat with any
storms will be gusty winds and heavy downpours, along with the
potential for isolated localized minor flooding with
showers/storms that anchor over a location. Lingering outflow
boundaries and weak sfc troughing over the area will aid this
activity through tonight, with latest guidance continuing to
depict an approaching weak shortwave which could allow for light
showers to linger into the early overnight hours. Otherwise,
conditions will remain fairly quiet through the overnight hours
with low stratus and fog progged to once again affect the
mountain valleys through daybreak. Patchy fog elsewhere could
not be entirely ruled, especially areas that receive rainfall
today. Min temps will remain a few degrees above normal.

An unsettled weather pattern begins to unfold for the week ahead as
CAMs suggest scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area on
Monday with weakening high pressure, upper trough moving overhead
and weak lee troughing across the Carolinas. Gusty winds and heavy
downpours will be possible with storms, while an isolated downburst
could not be entirely ruled out as well. Expect max temps to climb
to around normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday: The short range period will remain
convectively active as a weak sfc trof persists over the FA. Surface
based CAPE values will reach arnd 1800 J/kg each day as insol and
sfc td/s remain high. The environment will be weakly sheared and
unforced outside of passing s/w energy and weak n/ly mech lift.
So...not anticipating much more than pulse type storms each
afternoon with a few becoming temporarily strong to possibly severe
during the late afternoon periods. Storms will likely develop along
existing and new outflow bndys as well...so the chance for localized
hydro issues remains elevated. A well defined pocket of ulvl energy
will traverse the FA late Tue thru the overnight...so non/diurnal
convec will be possible during this timeframe. Otherwise...near
normal summertime temps are expected with patchy to areas of morning
fog possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday: The low level flow will begin to shift s/ly
early Thu and advection of GOM moisture will be on the rise. Expect
the environment to remain quite moist thereafter with PWATS
averaging around 1.75 inches each day. Meanwhile...a stg upper
wave will bring a cold front to the wrn zones, which will weaken and
broaden out across the FA thru the period. This will provide a
rather wide area of moisture pooling and the development of
scattered to numerous tstms each afternoon. With max temps and sfc
td/s right arnd normal...mixed layer instability will likely reach
moderate levels and produce outflow driven multi-cells capable of
producing stg/svr winds and large hail at times. Also...with the
deep moisture and weak storm motion...training and back-building
storms will be possible, which along with high precip rates will
create a good potential for localized flooding issues across the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Expect VFR to prevail through tonight with
the exception of intermittent, short-lived flight restrictions in
any shower or thunderstorm that moves over a TAF site, as noted by
TEMPO groups for afternoon/evening convection. Per latest guidance,
isolated showers may linger into the overnight hours, but confidence
on the the potential for -SHRA moving directly over a TAF site is
low attm. Low stratus/fog will be possible before daybreak on
Monday, mainly across the mountain valleys. Otherwise expect VFR
through the end of the valid TAF period.

Outlook: Diurnal convection will increase in coverage each day from
Monday through Wednesday, with above average coverage expected thru
the end of the work week. Morning fog/stratus restrictions will also
be possible each morning, especially over the usual mountain
valleys. Otherwise expect VFR.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  95%     High  83%     High  99%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   64%     High  91%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...12
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
557 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
557 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the region again this afternoon and evening. Any of
the thunderstorms may produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy
downpours, and gusty winds. Isolated flash flooding may be possible
if storms train over specific locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
252 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

GAZ017-018-026-091915-
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-
252 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN FRANKLIN...STEPHENS AND
SOUTHEASTERN HABERSHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 252 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Toccoa, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Martin, Avalon, Mount Airy, Gumlog, Boydville and Eastanolee.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8334 3438 8339 3443 8338 3446 8340
      3448 8347 3452 8350 3467 8331 3464 8327
      3464 8326 3461 8323 3461 8321 3458 8316
      3456 8314 3456 8313 3452 8308 3451 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 314DEG 9KT 3456 8333

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
318 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SCZ013-091945-
Union SC-
318 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM EDT...

At 317 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Union, or 4 miles west of Carlisle, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Carlisle, Tuckertown and Santuc.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 8155 3446 8155 3446 8156 3447 8155
      3449 8157 3456 8168 3469 8153 3462 8142
      3458 8143 3450 8142 3450 8144 3449 8144
      3449 8149 3445 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 313DEG 12KT 3458 8155

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
333 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SCZ007-092000-
Spartanburg SC-
333 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 333 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Columbus, or over Lake Bowen, moving east at 20
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Boiling Springs SC, Inman, Chesnee, Lake Bowen, USC
Upstate, Campobello, Mayo and Fingerville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 8217 3519 8213 3518 8187 3514 8185
      3494 8188
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 279DEG 16KT 3510 8207

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
349 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

NCZ506-508-092015-
Greater Rutherford NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
349 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND
NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 349 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Rutherfordton, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Ellenboro, Bostic, Spindale, Thermal City, Sunshine, Fero, Union
Mills, Glenwood and Dysartsville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3559 8183 3558 8182 3558 8180 3559 8179
      3557 8169 3543 8170 3531 8174 3543 8206
      3561 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 286DEG 14KT 3551 8195

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
411 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SCZ007-008-092045-
Cherokee SC-Spartanburg SC-
411 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG AND
NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 410 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Spartanburg, or near Mayo, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gaffney, Boiling Springs SC, Cowpens, Mayo, Chesnee, Cowpens National
Battlefield, USC Upstate and Thicketty.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8198 3518 8197 3519 8191 3517 8162
      3495 8162
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 270DEG 14KT 3509 8189

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
412 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SCZ014-092045-
Chester SC-
412 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHESTER COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 412 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Chester, or near Blackstock, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Chester State Park, Blackstock and Cornwell.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3457 8129 3468 8128 3472 8093 3454 8094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 272DEG 13KT 3460 8120

ARK