Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
436 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
We can expect the isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
early in the week to become more numerous in the afternoon and
evening from mid to late week.  High high temperatures of a couple
degrees above normal early in the week will be near normal late in
the week under the considerable cloud cover.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 435 PM EDT Sunday: Radar showing best convective coverage over
the Upstate and portions of NE GA with lesser coverage over the
southern tier of NC counties. CAMs show this trend will continue
into the evening, so have adjusted PoP to match. Isolated strong to
severe storms are possible given the high instability and very high
dCAPE values. The storms are showing good movement, so although
heavy rain is possible, any flooding looks to be localized.
Lingering outflow boundaries and weak sfc troughing over the area
will aid this activity through tonight, with latest guidance
continuing to depict an approaching weak shortwave which could allow
for light showers to linger into the early overnight hours.
Otherwise, conditions will remain fairly quiet through the overnight
hours with low stratus and fog progged to once again affect the
mountain valleys through daybreak. Patchy fog elsewhere could not be
entirely ruled, especially areas that receive rainfall today. Min
temps will remain a few degrees above normal.

An unsettled weather pattern begins to unfold for the week ahead as
CAMs suggest scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area on
Monday with weakening high pressure, upper trough moving overhead
and weak lee troughing across the Carolinas. Gusty winds and heavy
downpours will be possible with storms, while an isolated downburst
could not be entirely ruled out as well. Expect max temps to climb
to around normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday: The short range period will remain
convectively active as a weak sfc trof persists over the FA. Surface
based CAPE values will reach arnd 1800 J/kg each day as insol and
sfc td/s remain high. The environment will be weakly sheared and
unforced outside of passing s/w energy and weak n/ly mech lift.
So...not anticipating much more than pulse type storms each
afternoon with a few becoming temporarily strong to possibly severe
during the late afternoon periods. Storms will likely develop along
existing and new outflow bndys as well...so the chance for localized
hydro issues remains elevated. A well defined pocket of ulvl energy
will traverse the FA late Tue thru the overnight...so non/diurnal
convec will be possible during this timeframe. Otherwise...near
normal summertime temps are expected with patchy to areas of morning
fog possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday: The low level flow will begin to shift s/ly
early Thu and advection of GOM moisture will be on the rise. Expect
the environment to remain quite moist thereafter with PWATS
averaging around 1.75 inches each day. Meanwhile...a stg upper
wave will bring a cold front to the wrn zones, which will weaken and
broaden out across the FA thru the period. This will provide a
rather wide area of moisture pooling and the development of
scattered to numerous tstms each afternoon. With max temps and sfc
td/s right arnd normal...mixed layer instability will likely reach
moderate levels and produce outflow driven multi-cells capable of
producing stg/svr winds and large hail at times. Also...with the
deep moisture and weak storm motion...training and back-building
storms will be possible, which along with high precip rates will
create a good potential for localized flooding issues across the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Expect VFR to prevail through tonight with
the exception of intermittent, short-lived flight restrictions in
any shower or thunderstorm that moves over a TAF site, as noted by
TEMPO groups for afternoon/evening convection. Per latest guidance,
isolated showers may linger into the overnight hours, but confidence
on the the potential for -SHRA moving directly over a TAF site is
low attm. Low stratus/fog will be possible before daybreak on
Monday, mainly across the mountain valleys. Otherwise expect VFR
through the end of the valid TAF period.

Outlook: Diurnal convection will increase in coverage each day from
Monday through Wednesday, with above average coverage expected thru
the end of the work week. Morning fog/stratus restrictions will also
be possible each morning, especially over the usual mountain
valleys. Otherwise expect VFR.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  93%     High  87%     High  98%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Low   43%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH/12
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
557 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
557 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the region again this afternoon and evening. Any of
the thunderstorms may produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy
downpours, and gusty winds. Isolated flash flooding may be possible
if storms train over specific locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
412 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SCZ014-092045-
Chester SC-
412 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHESTER COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 412 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Chester, or near Blackstock, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Chester State Park, Blackstock and Cornwell.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3457 8129 3468 8128 3472 8093 3454 8094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 272DEG 13KT 3460 8120

ARK

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