Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
736 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Passing upper-level disturbances will produce greater than
typical coverage of showers and thunderstorms through Friday. A
return to more typical isolated to scattered summertime thunderstorm
activity is expected over the weekend as weak drying arrives from
the west. Moisture will gradually return late in the weekend through
the middle of next week to support a more active pattern once again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 735 PM Thursday: Convective coverage will remain high across
the mountains and I-40 corridor this evening, with lower coverage
elsewhere. While a strong to severe storm is possible, flooding will
be a bigger threat as echoes train over the same areas, especially
where coverage is better.

Persistence will be the rule for the weather and the forecast of
the same for the next 24 hours as the upper trof axis remains in
place to our west. Just like last night, we may keep showery precip
around parts of the forecast area for the better part of the tonight
period before it finally wanes in the pre-dawn hours. On Friday,
more of the same. Looks to be a similar pattern to morning low
clouds and fog, which could delay onset outside of the mountains.
The fcst looks the same in terms of coverage that will go beyond
climo in the afternoon. The environment should be conducive to a few
pulse severe storms again as well, with sfc-based CAPE in the 2000 -
3000 J/kg range and sfc-delta Theta-e above 30 deg. Temps will be
near normal as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 pm EDT Thursday: Deeper moisture and higher PWAT values
will be displaced off to our east this weekend as weak upper trough
axis translates east and fills.  Essentially, for the upcoming
weekend, wx conds are expected to be pretty typical of early August,
featuring a developing weaker flow regime, and seasonable humidity
levels.  Dirunally fired deeper convective chances will be close to
climo values with piedmont maximum apparent temperatures approaching
95 each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 pm EDT Thursday: Still expectimg a weak westerly flow
regime with embedded weak s/wv's rippling thru to exist atop the SE
CONUS to start off the work week.  PWAT progs starting on Monday
depict a moisting trend after a weekend featuring below climo values.
Despite limited Gulf moisture fetch, expecting a daily uptick in
diurnal PoPs for showers and thunderstorms each day.

PoPs may increase further above climo Wednesday and Thursday as
moisture begins to pool over the region as a frontal boundary lays
out across the Mid-Atlantic to the north. Anticipate plenty of lower
90s Piedmont to upper 80s mountain valley max temperatures each
afternoon, with mins a degree or so above climo through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Thunderstorms continue near some TAF sites
and will develop near the others this evening, so have adjusted the
TEMPOs for this. Convection should begin winding down around
midnight and end overnight. That said, some showers could linger.
Otherwise, expect another round of MVFR to IFR cigs, with LIFR or
VLIFR possible in some locations. Vsby should generally be MVFR
outside of the mountains, but IFR possible. KAVL should have the
lowest vsby with LIFR likely and VLIFR possible. Expect another slow
improvement after daybreak with vsby improving quickly but cigs
slowly rising to VFR and/or scattering out around noon. Looks to be
a relatively quick start to convection over the mountains with a
slightly slower start elsewhere, so have adjusted PROB30s for that
scenario. Winds will be anywhere from SW to SE, except gusty in
storms, as outflow boundaries traverse the area. Light and variable
wind overnight. S to SW wind expected during the afternoon.

Outlook: Coverage of thunderstorms will be more isolated to
scattered during the afternoon and evening over the weekend. Morning
fog/stratus restrictions will also be possible, especially over
the usual mountain valleys. Diurnal storms will become more likely
again from Monday onward.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  86%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     Low   53%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  95%     Med   77%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     Med   79%     Med   68%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     Low   48%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     Low   48%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
408 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-070815-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
408 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region this
afternoon and evening, with the most widespread coverage likely
occurring across western North Carolina. Any of these thunderstorms
will be capable of producing dangerous lightning, gusty winds, and
torrential downpours. Some of these storms may become severe, with
damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. Any locations
repeatedly affected by thunderstorms over a short period of time will
be prone to localized flash flooding from the heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
708 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

NCZ051-062345-
Swain NC-
708 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL SWAIN COUNTY UNTIL 745
PM EDT...

At 708 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bryson City, or over Smoky Mountains-Deep Creek, moving northeast at
15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Bryson City, Smoky Mountains-Deep Creek, Smoky Mountains-Clingmans
Dome, Smoky Mountains-Oconaluftee, Cherokee and Whittier.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 8349 3551 8332 3547 8334 3546 8335
      3536 8340 3541 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 205DEG 12KT 3545 8345

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
718 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

NCZ048-053-062345-
Buncombe NC-Madison NC-
718 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL MADISON AND
NORTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 717 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Marshall, or 7 miles northwest of Leicester,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Marshall, Canto, Walnut and Luck.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 8283 3571 8288 3585 8274 3574 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 232DEG 10KT 3573 8278

KRENTZ

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
750 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

NCZ048-049-070015-
Yancey NC-Madison NC-
750 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MADISON AND WEST
CENTRAL YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 750 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Burnsville, or 4 miles east of Mars Hill, moving
east at 5 mph.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Madison and west central Yancey Counties.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3591 8241 3582 8236 3582 8238 3581 8241
      3581 8247 3580 8251 3586 8254
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 249DEG 6KT 3584 8247

KRENTZ