Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

001 
WGUS72 KGSP 060253
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1053 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

NCC023-027-035-060303-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-200806T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Burke NC-Caldwell NC-Catawba NC-
1053 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN CATAWBA, 
EASTERN BURKE AND SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded and heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3572 8148 3583 8134 3580 8133 3580 8132
      3580 8131 3580 8130 3580 8128 3577 8122
      3565 8141

$$

RMM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
737 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect a more typical summertime pattern of mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms through early next week.
Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 735 PM: Convection has moved out of the mountains and will
move across the foothills and piedmont early this evening. Still
potential for a strong or severe storm until heating abates.

The weather situation remains persistent over the next 24 hours
with a SW flow aloft as an upper trof axis remains to our west. One
weak short wave will move slowly overhead this evening, while low
level flow remains light from the S to SE. This should keep some
convection going well into the overnight period, possibly all night
long near the Blue Ridge Escarpment where some weak mechanical lift
will persist. Thus, we hold onto some small precip chances. Min
temps will be near normal. Thursday should turn out similar to
today, with another favorable environment for deep convection
that initiates over the higher terrain by midday and expands from
there. Precip probs should be well above climo again. Sfc-based
CAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg, sfc-delta Theta-e in excess of 30,
and low shear point to another afternoon with possible pulse severe
storms. High temps will be near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 pm EDT Wednesday: Thursday night into Friday, an upper
trough will continue to set up shop over the eastern CONUS with
the axis of it just west of the southern Appalachians. With an
associated frontal boundary expected to remain stalled across the
eastern fringe of the cwa, isolated showers and thunderstorms
should linger through the overnight and early morning hours on
Friday, mainly in the mountains and NC Piedmont. With the help
from the right entrance region of a 200 mb jet streak located over
the central Appalachians on the eastern side of the trough, some
divergence and forcing aloft will kick-off a round of convective
development early Friday afternoon, starting in the higher
elevations. With the front still expected to remain stalled near
the far eastern zones and diurnal instability in place, scattered
convective coverage and above climo pops will be likely, especially
from the mountains to the NC Piedmont. Most of the activity on
Friday will be diurnal, but the axis of the trough gradually moves
over the region late Friday into early Saturday before lifting out
to the north and east. This opens the door for a few showers and
storms to linger past sunset Friday. As for Saturday, the front
will sag southward and the overall flow pattern flattens out a
bit and begins to become more zonal. Drier air will filter in as a
W to NW flow overtakes the area. With higher heights building in
from the south, temperatures will be at or slightly above climo
for Saturday. Not to mention, convective development will be
somewhat suppressed compared to Friday, but moderate instability
from daytime heating and PWAT values >1.25" for most locations
should keep isolated to scattered diurnal convective coverage in
the forecast during the first half of the weekend. Model guidance
picks up on a wave or two of elongated shortwaves to move across
the cwa during the same time period and allows pops on Saturday to
stay a tad bit above climo due to the mid-level energy and typical
summertime nature.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2pm EDT Wednesday: Not a lot of change in the day-to-day
sensible weather Sunday through Wednesday as near climo summertime
conditions continue. High and low temperatures vary by a few degrees
each day, along with generally light winds, and at least some chance
for afternoon thunder each day.

Some weak embedded shortwaves in WNW upper flow will, at times, give
a little forcing that will elevate POPs to above climo levels.  At
the same time, weak surface features do not give any strong fetch of
new moisture into the area.  So CAPE will remain at 1000 to 2000
j/kg in the afternoons, along with low-levels of deep-shear, to give
limited chances for severe.  Most likely severe weather will be
isolated microburst activity, typical of this time of year.

EC and GFS models agree on general weak dynamical pattern, with the
latest GFS model having a stronger shortwave entering the eastern
CONUS Monday night.  However, most of the energy with this wave
crosses well north of the CWA, with only some difficult-to-nail-down
increase in POPs Tuesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Convection currently moving east across the
area looks to only affect KCLT and KHKY this evening. Have TEMPO for
them and removed elsewhere. Wind should be light from the SE to S
but variable near storms and outflow boundaries. Low level moisture
will remain rich overnight. Valley fog looks like a near certainty,
so KAVL was taken down to at least LIFR in the pre-dawn hours. Other
sites could also have an MVFR or IFR restriction at that time, but
confidence is lower. Better confidence on at least MVFR stratus.
Expect more of the same on Thursday, with light S to SW wind and
more convection from midday onward.

Outlook: Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will be
possible thru the rest of the work week. Morning restrictions will
also be possible, especially over the usual mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Med   60%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High  95%     Med   60%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   66%     High  80%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     Med   66%     Low   35%     High  94%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     Med   60%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  85%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
449 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-060900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
449 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the region this afternoon and evening. Any of these thunderstorms may
produce cloud to ground lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds.
One or two of the thunderstorms may become severe, producing damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
618 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

SCZ014-052300-
Chester SC-
618 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT EASTERN
CHESTER COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 618 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 10 miles east of Chester, or near Richburg, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Fort Lawn, Richburg, Fishing Creek Reservoir and Edgemoor.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8089 3465 8089 3464 8090 3462 8089
      3460 8089 3456 8106 3472 8116 3482 8096
      3482 8090 3479 8088 3475 8088 3470 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 235DEG 17KT 3468 8103

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
636 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

SCZ007-052300-
Spartanburg SC-
636 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 635 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 12 miles west of Spartanburg, or near Lyman, moving
east at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lyman, Wellford and Inman.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3496 8222 3507 8222 3508 8206 3494 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 266DEG 6KT 3500 8215

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
649 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

NCZ508-052315-
Greater Rutherford NC-
649 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY
UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 649 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Forest City, or 7 miles north of Bostic, moving
north at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Sunshine.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 8169 3549 8170 3542 8178 3550 8190
      3554 8186 3554 8184 3558 8182 3558 8180
      3559 8179 3559 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 201DEG 5KT 3546 8180

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
710 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

NCZ035-056-502-052345-
Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
710 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTH
CENTRAL CATAWBA...SOUTHWESTERN ALEXANDER AND SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 710 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning near Hickory, or near St. Stephens, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hickory, St. Stephens, Bethlehem, Lake Hickory, Northlakes, Little
River In Alexander County and Oxford.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph, nickel
size hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will
be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 8134 3583 8115 3573 8130 3576 8137
      3577 8137 3576 8138 3577 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 218DEG 11KT 3578 8131

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
744 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

GAZ029-SCZ010-060015-
Elbert GA-Anderson SC-
744 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTH
CENTRAL ELBERT AND SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 744 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 10 miles northeast of Elberton, or 4 miles
northwest of Russell State Park, moving southwest at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Branch and Ruckersville.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3413 8282 3422 8293 3426 8287 3427 8282
      3428 8281 3430 8275 3426 8268 3421 8274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 039DEG 13KT 3424 8279

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
801 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

NCZ035-056-502-504-060030-
Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
801 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN CATAWBA...SOUTHWESTERN ALEXANDER...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL
AND SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 800 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 8 miles west of Hickory, or near Icard, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hickory, St. Stephens, Longview, Granite Falls, Bethlehem, Icard,
Hildebran, Connelly Springs, Rutherford College and Rhodhiss.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 8148 3570 8161 3590 8138 3576 8119
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 220DEG 19KT 3570 8147

KRENTZ