Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
433 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon showers and storms will mainly stay confined to the higher
elevations through the weekend. Low pressure is forecast to bring
tropical moisture to the Southeast during the first half of the
week, likely resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. A
more typical summertime pattern is expected to return for the latter
half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 430 PM EDT: Radar shows most widespread and strongest
convection across the NC mountains. Isolated convection near
Greenville and Salisbury. Expect the coverage to remain similar
into the evening. With slow moving storms, heavy rainfall likely
with isolated flooding possible. A severe storm can't be ruled out
given the very high dCAPE over the area. Hot and humid conditions
will continue into early evening.

Expect activity to wane with loss of daytime heating as conditions
become quiet overnight. As debris cloud cover disperses, areas that
saw precipitation today, especially across the mountain areas, could
see patchy fog towards daybreak. Min temperatures will remain
slightly above normal.

As a stationary boundary well south of the area begins to slowly
lift northward as a warm front and a weak boundary lingers north of
the area, expect increasing coverage for diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms once again on Sunday as upper ridging deamplifies
and shifts eastward. Similar to today, fcst soundings suggest
favorable conditions for a microburst of two on Sunday, with weak
flow once again allowing for little movement of activity, especially
activity that develops over the mountains. Temperatures once again
will climb a degree or two above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday: A gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected Sunday night through Tuesday as deep tropical
moisture associated with a weak disturbance spins from the lower
Mississippi Valley in our general direction. Expect increasing
clouds and shower and thunderstorm chances peaking during the
afternoon and evening Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures and
associated instability will be moderated by the unsettled weather.
But a developing slow but steady southerly flow and deep tropical
moisture will offset the lower instability, supporting increasing
excessive rainfall concerns through the period. One to two inches of
rain will be common (much of this falling Monday night through
Tuesday night) with locally three plus possible near the escarpment
and where training of showers and thunderstorms occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM Saturday: The extended period is a bit tricky to nail
down. The main question remains, exactly how quickly with the
tropical moisture exit the region? It seems likely that at least
some of the moisture will linger into Wednesday, but then northerly
flow behind the system should further dry things out Thursday.
Increasing heights building in from the west should offset any
increase in sunshine leading to only gradual increase in diurnally
driven instability heading into next weekend. So rain and
thunderstorm chances and the associated excessive rainfall threat
should be on the decline Wednesday into Thursday. All guidance
points towards a strong ridge setting up over the center of the
nation could provide a northwest flow regime atop the region by next
weekend. This would support an uptick in temperatures, most notably
east of the mountains. This could also set us under a mesoscale
convective system track with strong instability set up in a
development zone upstream of us in the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Scattered TSRA over the NC mountains
and isolated convection elsewhere will continue into the evening,
KAVL is the terminal most likely to be affected. Brief flight
restrictions will be possible with any SHRA/TSRA that moves over a
TAF site. Otherwise, expect VFR through tonight with passing mid to
high level clouds and prevailing light southwest winds. Could not
entirely rule out mountain valley fog towards daybreak, as noted in
KAVL TAF. On Sunday, expect VFR with increasing coverage of
scattered SHRA/TSRA. Light SW winds will back to SSE throughout the
day on Sunday.

Outlook: Expect increasing chances for afternoon to evening
thunderstorms through early next week. Overnight low cigs/vsbys will
be possible, focused across mountain valleys. Otherwise expect VFR.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH/12
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...RWH/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
436 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-050845-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
436 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the mountains this
afternoon. The main threats from these storms will be from cloud to
ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. However,
one or two storms could produce brief damaging wind gusts. Locally
excessive rainfall resulting in isolated flash flooding is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-050845-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-
Chester-Greenwood-
436 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will develop across the Piedmont and foothills
this afternoon. The main threats from these storms will be from
cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds.
However, one or two storms could produce brief damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>