Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

928 
WGUS72 KGSP 040238
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1038 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

NCC099-040615-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-200704T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jackson NC-
1038 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM EDT FOR
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY...

At 1034 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area.  Flash flooding is ongoing or expected
to begin shortly.

County officials report urban flooding and evacuation's of trailers 
needed on Blackhawk Road along Long Branch Creek.

Rainfall rates in this area have lowered, however, runoff and high 
water levels will linger over the next few hours.   

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Sylva, Cullowhee, Webster, Dillsboro, Savannah and Tuckasegee. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding in urban
areas. Storm drains, streams and other drainages will become
overwhelmed by excessive rainfall, flooding low-lying roads,
intersections, and parking lots. Underpasses are especially dangerous
because sudden flood waters can quickly surround and submerge your
vehicle. Stay alert and avoid flood-prone areas.

When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides
flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on
our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message
should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and
other landmarks.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 8310 3527 8304 3523 8322 3524 8322
      3524 8324 3523 8325 3523 8327 3540 8332

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

KRENTZ

549 
WGUS72 KGSP 040240 CCA
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement...Correction
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1040 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

NCC099-040615-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-200704T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jackson NC-
1040 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM EDT FOR
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY...

At 1034 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area.  Flash flooding is ongoing or expected
to begin shortly.

County officials report urban flooding and evacuations of trailers 
needed on Blackhawk Road along Long Branch Creek.

Rainfall rates in this area have lowered, however, runoff and high 
water levels will linger over the next few hours.   

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Sylva, Cullowhee, Webster, Dillsboro, Savannah and Tuckasegee. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding in urban
areas. Storm drains, streams and other drainages will become
overwhelmed by excessive rainfall, flooding low-lying roads,
intersections, and parking lots. Underpasses are especially dangerous
because sudden flood waters can quickly surround and submerge your
vehicle. Stay alert and avoid flood-prone areas.

When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides
flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on
our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message
should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and
other landmarks.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 8310 3527 8304 3523 8322 3524 8322
      3524 8324 3523 8325 3523 8327 3540 8332

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

KRENTZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
726 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon showers and storms will mainly stay confined to the higher
elevations through the weekend. Low pressure is forecast to bring
tropical moisture to the Southeast during the first half of next
week, likely resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT: Scattered convection west of AVL and
isolated NE of there will linger through the evening and dissipate
around midnight. VFR stratocu will linger overnight, especially
across the Blue Ridge. Expect another round of mountain valley fog
overnight. Lows will be a few degrees above normal.

For Saturday, a ridge of high pressure overhead will weaken somewhat
as a couple of disturbances impinge on the area, providing cooling
and somewhat steeper lapse rates at mid-levels. The net effect will
likely be an increased afternoon to evening shower and thunderstorm
activity focused across the mountains. Steep low level lapse rates
and some dry air aloft may support some stronger thunderstorms with
damaging wind and frequent lightning being the main threats. Slow
storm movement may also support localized minor flooding as well.
Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday: With broad upper ridge over the central
CONUS and upper trough over the eastern seaboard, latest guidance
continues to prog a sfc low pressure developing along a stationary
front well south of the area over the Gulf states. Across the
western Carolinas and northeast GA, conditions look to remain dry
Saturday night outside of the mountains, but into Sunday, chances
for isolated showers and thunderstorms increase across the entire FA
as a weak backdoor feature moves over the area with increasing
moisture and available instability. Max temps will climb to around
normal on Sunday. Min temps will remain above normal.

As upper ridge begins to deamplify and shift eastward, east-west
stationary boundary well to the south will begin to lift northward
into Monday as it's associated upper low moves up through the lower
MS Valley. With available instability and continued moisture return,
expect another round of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to kick off the new work week. Both days, the primary
threat will be gusty winds and possibly a few microbursts. Max
temperatures on Monday will fall a few degrees shy of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Friday: An unsettled weather pattern is expected
through at least midweek as the aforementioned front to the south
continues to lift northward as a warm front with it's associated sfc
low along the boundary, eventually shifting towards the Carolina
coast. Though will note, disagreement amongst guidance continues on
the exact placement of the sfc low/upper trough as it moves near the
area and the length of time in which it lingers across the area. Of
the extended forecast period, with plenty of moisture infiltrating
into the area in what will feel like a tropical environment, Tuesday
looks to be the wettest of the days with PWATs near 2 inches across
the area. With isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each
day, more diurnally driven for the latter half of the fcst period,
the main threat will be the potential for localized flooding on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Max temps will remain just below normal
through the period, with min temps just above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection will linger over the mountains
this evening but should not directly impact KAVL. VFR stratocu will
linger through the night along with light and variable winds.
Mountain valley fog is likely again, but will leave out of KAVL for
now as they are usually the last location to see restrictions.
Scattered diurnal convection expected again over the mountains
during the afternoon, so have included a PROB30 at KAVL. Isolated
convection possible elsewhere, but chance too low to include in the
TAF. Light wind becomes S to SW for the afternoon.

Outlook: A gradual increase in afternoon to evening thunderstorms is
expected through early next week. Overnight low cigs/vsbys will be
possible, focused across mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL/65
NEAR TERM...65/RWH
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
551 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505>507-509-
SCZ001>003-041000-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
551 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop across the
mountains this afternoon. The main threats from these storms will be
from cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and brief
gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-508-510-
SCZ004>014-019-041000-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
551 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane