Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
436 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The last in a series of weather disturbances will cross the area
tonight and Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures will fall to below normal by Thursday, then cooling off
even more by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 430 PM: A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted for all of
Upstate SC and much of western NC through 11 pm. The main question
mark for the severe weather evolution this evening is the lingering
stationary boundary across the heart of the forecast area, which
will retreat only slightly northward ahead of the advancing cold
front. The boundary will certainly serve as a focus, along with the
advancing embedded upper shortwaves. This will lead to very high
coverage, and likely severe weather, near the Interstate 85 corridor
through mid evening. Anticipate large hail and occasionally damaging
wind gusts as the primary threat, but brief tornadic spinups near
the stalled frontal zone are quite possible through 8 or 9 pm. Will
likely end up cancelling the watch from the west steadily through
the evening hours as the upper support moves rapidly east.

The upper trough passes over the region Wednesday, bringing the
first shot of unseasonably cold air this week with showers focused
across the mountains. The timing of the upper disturbance may
drastically limit diurnal warming across the high terrain Wednesday,
which is no easy feat in early May across the Southeast. In fact,
cold enough air wraps in that graupel or snow may mix in with the
rain above 4000 feet later Wednesday afternoon or early evening with
light accumulations possible above 5000 feet. Gusty but probably
below advisory levels northwest winds will also accompany this
system, making it feel even cooler then the daytime temperatures
reaching the 50s to 60s across the region (although much cooler
above 4000 feet).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday: A large scale upper trof will continue to
swing east of the area to begin the period. Associated embedded vort
energy and upslope flow will maintain -shra across the wrn NC mtns
early on, before tapering off before sunrise Thu. A quiet day on tap
Thu as deep layered drying and a unseasonably cold cP sfc high
engulfs the region. Thus...will likely have frost/freeze concerns
over the NC mtns each night thru the period. Max temps on Thu will
struggle to reach normal levels...likely remaining below by a few
degrees as nw/ly weak CAA flow persists. On Fri...winds will back
sw/ly ahead of an incoming cold front and modify temps back to
normal, while increasing td/s as well. However, instability will be
negligible ahead of the front, so wont expect much more than -shra
most areas with possible low-accum -snsh over the higher mtn ridges
as the frontal zone crosses east Fri night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Tuesday: Not a lot going on in the ext range. The
latest guidance continues to show a non/seasonal 1024 mb sfc high
dominating the pattern underneath broad cyclonic flow aloft. Cross
sections show deep layered dry air with increasing llvl moisture
late in the period over the NC mtns. Thus...a few nice days with
fairly weak winds and high sunshine are in store, albeit a little on
the cool side. Max temps will begin the period abt 10 degrees below
normal and modify to arnd normal levels by Mon. Mins will remain
below normal due to good rad cooling cond each night...which will
likely continue frost/freeze issues.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Strong gusts with the TEMPO TSRA have been
added to KAVL, KGMU, KGSP, and KCLT through the early evening hours
with the passing strong to severe convection. Anticipate mainly MVFR
cigs, with brief IFR to MVFR vsby with the heaviest downpours, and
some chance of hail at all of these airfields. Lingering MVFR to
locally LIFR cigs/vsbys are then possible in and just behind
stronger thunderstorms. A return to VFR is likely for non-mtn sites
by sunrise Wed with MVFR/low VFR cigs hanging on across some mtn
sites with a return of -shra. Can't rule out graupel or -sn mixing
in across the mountains with perhaps a few showers making it east of
the mountains near the end of the TAF period. Breezy northwest winds
are likely by Wednesday.

Outlook: Dry high pressure spreads back over the region on Thursday.
A cold front with precip and restrictions moves in Friday.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       Med   74%     Med   61%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  98%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  97%     High  83%     High 100%     High  91%
KHKY       Med   72%     Med   70%     High  91%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/65
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG/65

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