Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
235 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The last in a series of weather disturbances will cross the area
tonight and Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures will fall to below normal by Thursday, then cooling off
even more by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday: The latest satellite showed low to mid clouds
gradually filling in from the west with showers approaching the
mountains. The RAP has trended somewhat lower in instability in its
latest runs, but not enough to significantly change the overall
threat for severe thunderstorms this evening.

A staggered upper trough and surface low pressure system developing
just north of the region will support increase shower and
thunderstorm coverage this evening before pushing most of the
activity east of the area by midnight. Model guidance continues to
show isolated convection converging into a broken squall line east
of the mountains this evening, especially between I-85 and I-40. The
preferred mode of severe weather may begin with damaging hail with a
few isolated tornadoes as the main threats due to the more
discrete/isolated nature of convection late this afternoon into the
early evening across the mountains. The great threat then may become
wind later this evening, especially along and east of I-77 as model
guidance suggests further upscale grow into a full blown mesoscale
convective system in this general vicinity. The 12Z HREF continued
to show rotating updrafts which could support a few tornadoes east
of the mountains, however relatively high cloud bases may limit this
potential. Deep moist convection also supports localized flooding,
should training of cells occur.

The aforementioned upper trough passes over the region Wednesday,
bringing the first shot of unseasonably cold air this week with
showers focused across the mountains. The timing of the upper
disturbance may drastically limit diurnal warming across the high
terrain Wednesday, which is no easy feat in early May across the
Southeast. In fact, cold enough air wraps in that graupel or snow
may mix in with the rain above 4000 feet later Wednesday afternoon
or early evening with light accumulations possible above 5000 feet.
Gusty but probably below advisory levels northwest winds will also
accompany this system, making it feel even cooler then the daytime
temperatures reaching the 50s to 60s across the region (although
much cooler above 4000 feet).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday: A large scale upper trof will continue to
swing east of the area to begin the period. Associated embedded vort
energy and upslope flow will maintain -shra across the wrn NC mtns
early on, before tapering off before sunrise Thu. A quiet day on tap
Thu as deep layered drying and a unseasonably cold cP sfc high
engulfs the region. Thus...will likely have frost/freeze concerns
over the NC mtns each night thru the period. Max temps on Thu will
struggle to reach normal levels...likely remaining below by a few
degrees as nw/ly weak CAA flow persists. On Fri...winds will back
sw/ly ahead of an incoming cold front and modify temps back to
normal, while increasing td/s as well. However, instability will be
negligible ahead of the front, so wont expect much more than -shra
most areas with possible low-accum -snsh over the higher mtn ridges
as the frontal zone crosses east Fri night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Tuesday: Not a lot going on in the ext range. The
latest guidance continues to show a non/seasonal 1024 mb sfc high
dominating the pattern underneath broad cyclonic flow aloft. Cross
sections show deep layered dry air with increasing llvl moisture
late in the period over the NC mtns. Thus...a few nice days with
fairly weak winds and high sunshine are in store, albeit a little on
the cool side. Max temps will begin the period abt 10 degrees below
normal and modify to arnd normal levels by Mon. Mins will remain
below normal due to good rad cooling cond each night...which will
likely continue frost/freeze issues.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: 18Z TAF set driven largely by the timing and
intensity of convection with the latest guidance trending lower in
instability and coverage especially south of I-85. MVFR to locally
LIFR cigs/vsbys possible in and just behind stronger thunderstorms.
A return to VFR is likely for non-mtn sites by sunrise Wed with
MVFR/low VFR cigs hanging on across some mtn sites with a return of -
shra. Can't rule out graupel or -sn mixing in across the mountains
with perhaps a few showers making it east of the mountains near the
end of the TAF period. Breezy northwest winds are likely by
Wednesday.

Outlook: Dry high pressure spreads back over the region on Thursday.
A cold front with precip and restrictions moves in Friday.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  80%     High  89%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...65
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...65

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE GREENVILLE        34.86N 82.31W
05/05/2020                   GREENVILLE         SC   PUBLIC

            TWO LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN AT MERRIFIELD DRIVE AND
            GATEWAY STREET.

&&

SKRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
317 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020

NCZ051-058-062-051945-
Graham NC-Swain NC-Macon NC-
317 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MACON...SOUTH
CENTRAL SWAIN AND CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 317 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Robbinsville, moving east at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Robbinsville, Bryson City, Town Of Santeetlah, Lake Santeetlah,
Nantahala Lake, Fontana Lake, Wesser, Stecoah, Burningtown and Kyle.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3537 8388 3545 8346 3518 8343 3519 8371
      3520 8371 3520 8373 3523 8369 3524 8369
      3526 8371 3524 8375 3526 8379 3525 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 263DEG 21KT 3529 8378

KRENTZ