Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
832 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A compact but energetic storm system will move from Kentucky to
Pennsylvania tonight into Sunday as its showers and thunderstorms
eventually exit our region.  Seasonably cool conditions are expected
behind this system with the next shot at widespread rain arriving by
the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 825 PM: Supercells lined up just south of the NC border have
mostly been associated with large hail. They will be moving into
slightly less unstable air, although they are riding more or less
along the warm front, and we continue to monitor for development
of tornadoes. Shear/helicity will stay about the same as the cells
work east, and LCLs appear to lower, so the tornado threat will
persist for some time, though hail potential may diminish a bit.

Convection should clear our area by midnight to 1 AM, though some
NW flow and wrap-around moisture will enhance shower activity in
the mountains near daybreak tomorrow. Some moisture may even break
containment, with showers possible across the majority of the NC
mountains tomorrow, not just the TN/NC border. Though no accums
are forecast at the current time, temperatures will drop enough
tomorrow as upper heights drop that some light snow may be possible
at elevations above 5000ft. the other story across the area will
be wind - stout NW flow will encourage gusts up to 25+ mph outside
the mountains, and up to 35+ mph in the mountains. Temperatures
will be below average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Saturday: An upper trough axis crosses the area Sunday
night then moves east through the rest of the short term with slowly
rising heights as an upper ridge axis moves in by Tuesday. Deep NW
flow, short waves, and upper divergence will act on lingering
moisture over the mountains to keep showers there Sunday night.
Temps may be cold enough for some very high elevation snow, but p-
type will be rain for the vast majority. gusty NW wind will remain
over the area Sunday night into Monday. Gusts as high as 40 mph will
be possible across the higher elevations with gusts to 30 mph
possible elsewhere. A weak clipper-type system approaches from the
NW on Tuesday but weakens as it moves toward the area. Have kept the
forecast dry for now. Temps will be a few degrees below normal
Sunday and Monday nights and on Monday then warm a few degrees above
normal for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM Saturday: An upper low moving across the Great Lakes
will swing a strong short wave trough across our area Wednesday and
Wednesday night. The associated cold front moves in during the same
time frame. There will be good forcing and deep moisture, but only
weak instability. Guidance is in good agreement on timing and PoP
has increased to high likely and categorical on Wednesday with
likely PoP Wednesday night. Agree with previous shift that since
it's late April and still 5 days out, we won't rule out anything in
terms of the severe convective potential at this point, but
hazardous weather is not looking like a slam dunk either. There will
be some lingering NW flow rain showers Thursday and possibly Friday
then dry on Saturday.

Near normal temps Wednesday drop a few degrees Thursday, then back
to near normal Friday and above normal on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT: Primary concern is series of supercells on track to pass
near the field later this evening. Large hail is the primary concern
but damaging winds or even a tornado cannot be ruled out. The
trailing cells likely will begin to struggle with loss of heating
and as they ingest rain cooled air from the first cells. Leading
cell expected to make nearest pass around 0145-0215z and threat
will continue until around 0345-0415z. MVFR to IFR vsby and MVFR
cig expected.

Otherwise: Timing of TSRA TEMPOs this evening based on meso
model projections and radar trends, where necessary. Cold front
will sweep through later this evening. Given onset of drier air
and mixing, daybreak restrictions appear unlikely. Shortwave
trough passing overhead tomorrow, along with midlevel inversion,
should result in areas of MVFR to low VFR stratocu that will cause
occasional cigs. Winds will become NW tonight at KAVL but remain
SW elsewhere. Frequent gusts of 20-30 kt are likely much of the
day Sunday.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday
before another storm system brings rain chances and restrictions
back on Wednesday.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       Med   74%     High  99%     High  85%     High 100%
KGSP       High  98%     High 100%     High  81%     Med   79%
KAVL       High  81%     High  85%     Med   72%     Med   66%
KHKY       Med   78%     Med   66%     High  82%     High 100%
KGMU       High  99%     High 100%     High  81%     Med   73%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  80%     High  93%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...17/08
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
617 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>065-509-510-SCZ001>008-010-012-
013-262230-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-Anderson-Laurens-Union SC-
617 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020

...TORNADO WATCH 148 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-068>072-082-
501>508-SCZ009-011-014-019-262230-
Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-York-Abbeville-Chester-
Greenwood-
617 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area
along and ahead of a cold front from late this afternoon through the
evening. A few of these storms will have the potential to produce
severe weather, primarily in the form of damaging wind gusts and
large hail. However, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1037 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     HAIL             CAJAH'S MOUNTAIN        35.84N 81.54W
04/25/2020  E1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER (1.00") SIZE HAIL ON OAKMONT
            DR AND CONNELLY SPRINGS RD.

&&

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