Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

002 
WGUS72 KGSP 191940
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
340 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020

NCC111-149-161-SCC045-083-192030-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200519T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
McDowell NC-Rutherford NC-Polk NC-Greenville SC-Spartanburg SC-
340 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD...POLK...NORTHEASTERN
GREENVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES...

At 337 PM EDT, Locally excessive runoff continued across the warned 
area after 5 to 6 inches of rain fell from Landrum to Tryon to 
Columbus to Lake Lure.  

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Marion, Columbus, Landrum, Tryon, Lake Lure, Campobello, Tigerville,
Lake Robinson, Green Hill and Mill Spring.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross
water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few
inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is
not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 8197 3559 8188 3501 8220 3499 8241
      3553 8220 3553 8217 3554 8220 3576 8211

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
955 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper low will linger over the Tennessee Valley Region
through mid week as it slowly weakens. This pattern will generate
multiple rounds of precipitation across much of the region that
continues into the latter half of the week. More typical late
spring weather is expected to return over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 AM EDT Tuesday: Minor adjustments made to
temperatures/PoPs/present wx to coincide with latest trends as the
rest of the near term forecast remains on track. With no lightning
to note of, latest radar imagery depicts moderate to heavy (at
times) showers moving northward across the area this morning.
Current temperatures range from the low to upper 60s.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the area.
Please see latest Public Information Statement regarding the
increasing threat for landslides and debris flows across the
mountains and foothills over the next few days.

Previous discussion: Over the next several hours, we can expect
bands of moderate to heavy precip to make its way over the fcst area
from the south with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
possible under the heavier showers.

Otherwise, the large h5 low will continue to gradually drift south
today and tonight as it maintains a nearly symmetrical appearance.
By the end of the near-term period it will be centered just to our
west and over Eastern TN/Northern GA. At the sfc, the main low will
not move much today/tonight with the heavier precip bands expected
to shift more to the northern part of the CWFA, say in the vicinity
of the I-40 corridor, as the low-lvl flow becomes more NELY later
this aftn. The resulting hybrid wedge-like configuration will persist
well into Wednesday with the north to south temperature gradient
strengthening each day. As for the thunderstorm potential today and
tonight, model profiles generate less instability compared to yesterday
with weaker lapse rates from the warmer air aloft. Therefore, it's
pretty unlikely that any thunderstorms will reach severe criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 am EDT Tuesday: We will remain under the influence of a
strong upper low through the middle part of the week. The latest
guidance has the center of this feature a little bit farther south
on Wednesday, which brings more of a focus for heavy precip maybe
a bit farther down the Escarpment toward northeast GA. The precip
amounts down the chain are not appreciably higher yet, so the
southwest extent of the watch still looks well-placed. Meanwhile,
as the low makes its closest wobble to the srn Appalachians, the
main plume of moisture should translate slowly eastward across
the fcst area during the day and into Wednesday evening. The low
level convergence will orient itself in a SE to NW fashion, pointed
right at the NC mountains during this period, with an anomalously
strong easterly flow transporting copious moisture up into northwest
NC. This time period will be of great concern for ongoing flooding
across the NC mtns and foothills, with areas outside the mtns and
particularly the Charlotte metro area having perhaps their highest
threat for new flooding. Think it wise to expand the Watch now
to cover the remainder of the Charlotte metro area. Over the mtns
and near the Escarpment, our risk for landslides and debris flows
may also maximize Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Temperatures
through this period will remain well below normal because of the
heavy rain and extensive cloudiness. The conveyor belt of moisture
should get slowly pushed off to the northeast Wednesday night
and Thursday morning and some drier air should wrap in across
northeast Georgia as well. Thus, our precip probs should start
to tail off on Thursday, although they remain high across the NC
part until Thursday night. The new ECMWF is a bit more optimistic
with a quicker timing of moving drier air into the region, so a
downward trend on the precip chances was employed. Temps should
rebound on Thursday as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 AM EDT Tuesday: Model discrepancies remain as to the
eventual demise or departure of the upper low on Friday, with the
GFS still lifting it out over the OH Valley on a northeast track by
sunrise, but the ECMWF taking a slower eastern track and keeping it
close enough to our north to keep us under a stronger cyclonic flow
aloft. Either way, forcing and moisture should be on the downswing
on Friday, but with enough left over for diurnally enhanced precip
probabilities that favor the mtns. Even in the wake of the low,
model differences abound, and thus confidence suffers. Some kind of
upper ridging is expected to take hold over the weekend, but will
it be more amplified like the ECMWF or flatter like the GFS. The
former favors a purely diurnal precip scenario no better than a
summertime 30 mtns/20 Piedmont percentage, but the latter would
see a steady train of weak upper waves moving thru the flat ridge
to keep precip chances fluctuating but not completely going away
at night over the mtns. Both scenarios favor above normal temps
and a relatively humid air mass. The fcst will keep a diurnally
modulated precip forecast until a clearer signal is seen.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: With little change expected in the synoptic
pattern, widespread restrictions will continue thru the 12z taf period.
We haven't seen much in the way of lightning over the past few hours
and aren't expecting to for the rest of the morning. Cigs have gone
IFR over most sites during the past few hours, with a few sites reporting
LIFR conditions. The IFR conditions will likely persist thru the morning
hours, with additional rounds of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms
expected today and tonight ahead of the approaching upper low. Anticipate
gusty ELY to NELY winds to develop across Western NC this afternoon in
the vicinity of a backdoor cold front, with more SELY to SLY winds over
the SC sites.

Outlook: Waves of widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue
thru Wednesday, and possibly linger well into Thursday. As such,
widespread flight restrictions are expected to continue. Some drying
is possible by late in the week.

Confidence Table...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       High  92%     Med   77%     High  89%     Med   74%
KGSP       High  87%     High  85%     Low   59%     High  98%
KAVL       Med   75%     Low   54%     Low   57%     Med   74%
KHKY       High  86%     High  93%     High  92%     Med   70%
KGMU       High  83%     Med   70%     Med   68%     High  96%
KAND       High  89%     High 100%     High  94%     High  85%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NCZ033-035>037-
     049-050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for SCZ002-003-
     005>010-013-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JPT/12
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1004 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ002-003-005>010-013-014-201415-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-
Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Union SC-
Chester-
1004 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, scattered thunderstorms
are likely again today and tonight. The main threats from these
thunderstorms will be brief, gusty winds and dangerous cloud to
ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-063-SCZ001-004-
011-012-019-201415-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Madison-Swain-Haywood-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Oconee Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Abbeville-Laurens-Greenwood-
1004 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is the increasing likelihood of excessive rainfall today and
tonight, as periodic waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected
to move across the region. Across the mountains, the threat for
landslide activity will also increase. In addition to the heavy
rainfall threat, scattered thunderstorms are likely again today and
tonight. The main threats from these thunderstorms will be brief,
gusty winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Substantial rainfall is expected again on Wednesday and early Thursday,
as periodic waves of showers and thunderstorms move across the region.
The threat for flooding will remain elevated through Thursday. Across
the mountains, the threat for landslide activity may also increase
through Wednesday. Eventually, the flood threat along main stem
rivers will also increase and remain elevated through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

JPT/12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1256 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     FLOOD            4 SSW OLD FORT          35.58N 82.20W
05/19/2020                   MCDOWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LITTLE CROOKED CREEK OVERFLOWING ONTO ROY MOORE RD.

&&

17