Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
141 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

18Z Surface observations and RAP analysis indicated pre frontal
trough across the southeast corner of the forecast area.
Observations as well as visible satellite indicate cold front
steadily advancing south and was located between Wray and St
Francis.

Main concern will center around heavy rain through this evening
and potential for localized flooding.

Morning raobs continue to indicate near record values of
precipitable water in place all around the area. The ample
moisture combined with relatively deep warm layer and slow storm
motions some what parallel to initial forcing provides a good set
up for very efficient, heavy rain producing thunderstorms.
Already have convective initation along trough and with continued
forcing along front expect storms to steadily increase in
coverage through the afternoon. While the initiation points are
somewhat apparent, CAM's suggest that once storms start, new
development will be heavily driven by new outflows which will
really lower the predictability with respect to location as storms
evolve. Stayed closely to HREF mean representation of
precipitation evolution but expect the details will remain
somewhat murky. With very favorable environment and low FFG
values, flash flood watch looks to be in good shape with the most
likely area highlighted. Rest of the area should be on lookout for
flash flooding as well as environment favorable over much of the
area.

As colder air works into area tonight, expect storms to gradually
shift to the south through the overnight and morning hours.
Atmosphere remains unstable to near sfc parcels through the night
however, so storms may linger much longer than usual. Fog, low
stratus and cooler temperatures will build into the area in the
morning which will diminish precipitation threat. Atmosphere
becomes capped through at least 22Z, so do not expect a lot of
redevelopment, if any, until late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

Long range guidance suggests that WNW to NNW flow aloft will
prevail over the Central/Northern Plains in this period -- on the
N-NE periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert
Southwest/Intermountain West. A variety of small amplitude waves
and/or convectively generated features may be present within WNW-
NNW flow aloft over the Central/Northern Plains this week... none
of which can confidently be anticipated at this range. With the
above in mind, significant forecast uncertainty persists...
particularly with regard to precipitation chances (i.e. location/
timing/coverage/evolution of convection).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

Unsettled weather is expected as thunderstorms will begin around
20 UTC and continue through the evening hours. Right now, most
likely timeframe for thunderstorms impacts will be between 22 and
03 UTC, but storms will likely linger longer into the night. As
storms end, expect IFR stratus to build into much of the area
along with some fog, this will keep flight categories below MVFR
through 15 UTC.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ003-004-014>016-
     028-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...JRM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1117 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-271730-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1117 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020 /1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms will develop early this afternoon and increase in
coverage tonight. The primary threats this afternoon will be wind
gusts to 65 mph and locally heavy rainfall which may produce flash
flooding. For tonight the primary threat will be locally heavy
rainfall which may produce flash flooding. The most likely area to
experience flash flooding will be along and east of a Russell
Springs to Oberlin line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any rainfall, flooding or high wind reports are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1223 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1221 PM     FLOOD            1 SSW STRATTON          40.14N 101.23W
07/26/2020                   HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTERS REPORTED WATER OVER ROAD NEAR
            REPUBLICAN RIVER. RIVER ALSO REPORTED TO BE
            RUNNING ABOVE BANK FULL IN NEARBY AREAS.

&&

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
311 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

KSZ028-042-262030-
Wichita KS-Logan KS-
311 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WICHITA AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 311 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Russell Springs, or 15 miles west of Scott State Lake,
moving north at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Wichita and southwestern Logan Counties.

LAT...LON 3883 10136 3882 10105 3870 10108 3870 10113
      3864 10113 3864 10132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 179DEG 18KT 3872 10121

JRM