Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
141 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

18Z Surface observations and RAP analysis indicated pre frontal
trough across the southeast corner of the forecast area.
Observations as well as visible satellite indicate cold front
steadily advancing south and was located between Wray and St
Francis.

Main concern will center around heavy rain through this evening
and potential for localized flooding.

Morning raobs continue to indicate near record values of
precipitable water in place all around the area. The ample
moisture combined with relatively deep warm layer and slow storm
motions some what parallel to initial forcing provides a good set
up for very efficient, heavy rain producing thunderstorms.
Already have convective initation along trough and with continued
forcing along front expect storms to steadily increase in
coverage through the afternoon. While the initiation points are
somewhat apparent, CAM's suggest that once storms start, new
development will be heavily driven by new outflows which will
really lower the predictability with respect to location as storms
evolve. Stayed closely to HREF mean representation of
precipitation evolution but expect the details will remain
somewhat murky. With very favorable environment and low FFG
values, flash flood watch looks to be in good shape with the most
likely area highlighted. Rest of the area should be on lookout for
flash flooding as well as environment favorable over much of the
area.

As colder air works into area tonight, expect storms to gradually
shift to the south through the overnight and morning hours.
Atmosphere remains unstable to near sfc parcels through the night
however, so storms may linger much longer than usual. Fog, low
stratus and cooler temperatures will build into the area in the
morning which will diminish precipitation threat. Atmosphere
becomes capped through at least 22Z, so do not expect a lot of
redevelopment, if any, until late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

Long range guidance suggests that WNW to NNW flow aloft will
prevail over the Central/Northern Plains in this period -- on the
N-NE periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert
Southwest/Intermountain West. A variety of small amplitude waves
and/or convectively generated features may be present within WNW-
NNW flow aloft over the Central/Northern Plains this week... none
of which can confidently be anticipated at this range. With the
above in mind, significant forecast uncertainty persists...
particularly with regard to precipitation chances (i.e. location/
timing/coverage/evolution of convection).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

Unsettled weather is expected as thunderstorms will begin around
20 UTC and continue through the evening hours. Right now, most
likely timeframe for thunderstorms impacts will be between 22 and
03 UTC, but storms will likely linger longer into the night. As
storms end, expect IFR stratus to build into much of the area
along with some fog, this will keep flight categories below MVFR
through 15 UTC.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ003-004-014>016-
     028-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...JRM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1117 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-271730-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1117 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020 /1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms will develop early this afternoon and increase in
coverage tonight. The primary threats this afternoon will be wind
gusts to 65 mph and locally heavy rainfall which may produce flash
flooding. For tonight the primary threat will be locally heavy
rainfall which may produce flash flooding. The most likely area to
experience flash flooding will be along and east of a Russell
Springs to Oberlin line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any rainfall, flooding or high wind reports are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
355 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     EXCESSIVE HEAT   5 NW TASCO              39.41N 100.36W
07/26/2020  M106 F           SHERIDAN           KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 3859D 5 NW TASCO.

&&

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
402 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

KSZ041-262230-
Greeley KS-
402 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GREELEY COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM MDT...

At 402 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Horace, or near Tribune, moving east at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tribune and Horace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3830 10200 3848 10199 3850 10157 3833 10157
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 249DEG 11KT 3842 10179

024

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
509 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

KSZ015-016-262230-
Sheridan KS-Graham KS-
509 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 509 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Park, or 11 miles southeast of Hoxie, moving east
at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Morland, Studley, Saint Peter and Tasco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 10039 3934 10037 3938 10007 3914 10003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 270DEG 11KT 3925 10028

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
419 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             16 S BETHUNE            39.08N 102.43W
07/26/2020  E0.70 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITH STRONG WINDS.

&&

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
422 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

COZ091-092-262245-
Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO-
422 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 445 PM
MDT...

At 422 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles northeast of Kit Carson, or 19 miles northwest of Cheyenne
Wells, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Cheyenne and south central Kit Carson Counties in east central
Colorado.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3887 10273 3909 10275 3910 10253 3887 10248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 263DEG 15KT 3898 10264

024

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