Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
145 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Tonight...strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue
moving east-southeast through early evening before losing their
severity and eventually dissipating a few hours after midnight. Low
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...there is a slight chance for late
afternoon and evening thunderstorms as another weather
disturbance moves through under northwest flow aloft. Areal
coverage appears to be much less compared to the past few days but
we continue to advertise that severe storms are possible. High
temperatures are expected to be in the low 90s to near 100. Low
temperatures are expected to fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Friday...at present time it appears that we'll be thunderstorm free
during the day but will have to watch the far western/northwest
fringes closely as GFS advertising another disturbance approaching
per 700-500mb relative humidity. High temperatures reach the mid 90s
to around 100.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1254 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020

For this extended discussion the same pattern continues. An upper-
level ridge building over the High Plains with an upper-level close
low over the SOCAL coast. This low will move up the west side of the
ridge and become an open wave by the time it reached the top of the
axis. Later in the period, the ridge will move eastward while a
trough moves into the Rockies from the PACNORWEST and bring with it
an associated surface front that looks to impact the area on Monday
night through Tuesday.

So this pattern will produce temperatures above normal Saturday
through Monday (Middle to upper 90s) with a slight chances of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms associated with open wave within
the southwestern flow on the western side of the ridge. Followed by
a chance of precipitation Monday night into Tuesday with the front
passing through the area. Behind the front, Tuesday and Wednesday
will see temps closer to normal (upper 70s to lower 80s).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions are expected through the period
outside of any convection. Winds outside of any convection are
expected to be below 12kts and will be variable in direction
through the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible at KGLD in the 22z-00z timeframe and KMCK in the 00z-03z
timeframe. Primary hazards will be outflow wind gusts over 50kts,
large hail, locally heavy rainfall and a small threat for blowing
dust due to the strong outflow. Any of these hazards could produce
sub vfr conditions. At this time have a VCTS mention until
confidence increases in specific timing and hazard of a
thunderstorm impacting either terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
110 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-041200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
110 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020 /210 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across the majority
of the Tri-State area through 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT). A Marginal Risk
for severe weather is in place for the remainder of the area. Hail up
to the size of golf balls, damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and locally
heavy rainfall which could cause flash flooding are all possible.
The strong and sudden wind gusts could produce blowing dust and
significant reductions in visibility. Landspout tornados will also be
possible primarily along and west of the Colorado Kansas border for
the first few hours of thunderstorm development.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across the
majority of the Tri-State area during the late afternoon and evening
hours on Thursday. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
hazards.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across far eastern
Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across far
eastern Colorado Sunday. If trends continue a Fire Weather Watch will
be issued in the next day or two. Near critical fire weather
conditions are expected across far eastern Colorado Monday through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed from 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT) through 9
PM MDT (10 PM CDT). We would appreciate reports of severe weather
via telephone and social media.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
336 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             2 ESE IDALIA            39.69N 102.26W
06/03/2020  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
343 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             6 SSE BEECHER ISLAND    39.79N 102.09W
06/03/2020  E0.70 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
351 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020

COZ091-032215-
Kit Carson County CO-
351 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 351 PM MDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm over Bethune, or 7 miles west of Burlington, moving east
at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington and Bethune.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 423 and 440.
 Highway 385 between mile markers 178 and 194.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3924 10256 3940 10250 3940 10219 3916 10227
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 277DEG 6KT 3930 10241

Husted

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
355 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     HAIL             IDALIA                  39.70N 102.30W
06/03/2020  E1.50 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JBH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
357 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             3 ESE VONA              39.29N 102.69W
06/03/2020  E0.70 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            PEA TO DIME-SIZED HAIL REPORTED BETWEEN MILE
            MARKERS 412-417 OF I-70.

&&

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
401 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020

KSZ027-032215-
Wallace KS-
401 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM MDT...

At 401 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Weskan, or 14 miles northwest of Sharon Springs,
moving east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sharon Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3909 10205 3914 10188 3913 10187 3913 10177
      3890 10173 3890 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 261DEG 15KT 3901 10199

Husted