Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
534 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

Tonight...strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
continue through this evening then dissipate by midnight. Low
temperatures fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...another round of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to move into the northwest 1/2 to 1/3 of
the area in the mid to late afternoon hours from the northwest,
continuing southeast across the remainder of the area through about
midnight. Good upper jet support to keep the storms going after dark
and we could see an MCS type event or organized convective cluster.
High temperatures will be cooler compared to the past few days with
readings in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures are expected
to be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...as has been the case the past few days we
will have another chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms as
another weather disturbance moves through under northwest flow
aloft. High temperatures warm back up into the low to upper 90s. Low
temperatures remain mild for this time of year with mid 50s to mid
60s.

Friday...at present time it appears that we'll be thunderstorm free
during the day but will have to watch the far western/northwest
fringes closely as GFS advertising another disturbance approaching
per 700-500mb relative humidity. High temperatures reach the mid 90s
to around 100.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

Not much has changed from yesterday's discussion. The models are
still showing an upper-level ridge building over the High Plains.
With it, an upper-level close low will move up the west side of the
ridge, from the SOCAL coast, and become an open wave by the time it
reached the top of the axis.

Towards the end of the period, this ridge will continue to move
eastward while a low/trough moves into the Rockies region, from the
PACNORWEST, behind it, along with its associated surface front.

This pattern will produce mostly hot (middle to upper 90) and dry
conditions for the period with the exception of Saturday, were we
could see showers and thunderstorms related to the open wave, and
Monday, were the showers and thunderstorms will be associated with
the front. In addition, highs on Tuesday will drop into the lower
80s behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 534 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

Vfr conditions are forecast for both KGLD and KMCK terminals
through the TAF period. That being said, both terminals could see
thunderstorms through approximately 03 or 04z which could produce
sub-vfr conditions, strong winds, and even large hail. Cloud
cover will linger through the evening as storms persist then
dissipate in the region. Clearer skies should return by midday
Wednesday before another round of storms and clouds develops in
the late afternoon.

Wind will generally be from the north tonight around 10 to 15
knots (with higher gusts at KGLD in the evening). However, wind
speed and direction may be impacted by nearby thunderstorm
activity. Light winds shift to the east Wednesday morning, then to
the southeast in the afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JBH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
207 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
207 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020 /307 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across much of the Tri-
State area through 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT). The primary hazards will
be hail up to the size of golfballs, wind gusts to 65 mph, landspout
tornadoes and locally heavy rainfall. The strong and sudden wind
gusts could produce blowing dust and reduced visibilities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across the majority
of the Tri-State area during the late afternoon and evening hours on
Wednesday. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across the
majority of the Tri-State area during the late afternoon and evening
hours on Thursday. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
hazards.

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across far
eastern
Colorado Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Elevated fire weather
conditions
are expected across far eastern Colorado Monday and Tuesday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
458 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S BURLINGTON          39.23N 102.28W
06/02/2020  M47 MPH          KIT CARSON         CO   ASOS

            DELAYED REPORT. ASOS STATION KITR BURLINGTON
            CO AIRPORT.

&&

RRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
535 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HAIL             13 NNW RULETON          39.52N 101.93W
06/02/2020  E0.70 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

KMK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
644 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

KSZ002-003-NEZ081-030030-
Rawlins KS-Decatur KS-Red Willow NE-
644 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RAWLINS...WESTERN
DECATUR AND SOUTHWESTERN RED WILLOW COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 644 PM CDT, thunderstorm outflow was located along a line
extending from 5 miles southwest of McCook to 3 miles east of Herndon
to 10 miles southeast of Atwood. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and significantly reduced visibility due
to blowing dust are possible.

Locations impacted include...
McCook, Oberlin, Herndon, Traer and Cedar Bluffs.

LAT...LON 4011 10045 3970 10049 3966 10052 3968 10095
      3995 10079 4000 10079 4000 10076 4029 10076
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 317DEG 24KT 4016 10070 3989 10072 3969 10091

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW PALISADE          40.33N 101.17W
06/02/2020                   HITCHCOCK          NE   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMBS DOWN AT RESIDENCE.

&&

RRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             4 WSW PALISADE          40.33N 101.17W
06/02/2020  E1.75 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   PUBLIC

&&

RRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
554 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             4 WSW PALISADE          40.33N 101.17W
06/02/2020  E2.75 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM 4 WSW
            PALISADE. CITIZEN FOUND BASEBALL SIZED HAIL
            WHEN GOING OUTSIDE.

&&

KMK