Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
531 PM MDT Sun May 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Sun May 24 2020

Visible satellite and surface obs reveal a complex scenario across
western and especially southwestern Kansas. Front has settled
along a Hays to Liberal line, with agitated cu ahead and along it.
There is also an outflow boundary racing westward and approaching
Hays, which may nudge the front into Gove/Sheridan/Graham counties
in the next few hours. If that happens, then cannot rule out those
areas getting on the warm/very unstable side of the front where
deep layer shear supports possible supercells between 21z and 00z
before moving east. Elsewhere, will be looking westward to
Colorado where large complex of thunderstorms will develop in the
post frontal upslope regime and move across the area this evening.
These storms have the potential of producing a large swath of
60-80 mph wind gusts this evening, as well as locally heavy
rainfall. Overnight, precipitation will shift eastward where
locally heavy rainfall will continue to be a risk. Low temperatures
will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s.

Monday will be cloudy and cool with scattered showers through the
day, most numerous in the morning. No severe storms are expected
due to lack of instability and additional rainfall amounts will be
light. High temperatures will generally be in the lower 60s,
perhaps a few degrees cooler. Low temperatures Monday night will
range from the upper 30s in northeast Colorado to middle 40s in
west central Kansas. Cannot rule out patchy frost in lower lying
areas of northeast Colorado.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry with the remnant upper low over
the southern plains and shortwave ridging from the desert
southwest to central Rockies. Temperatures will be in the middle
70s on Tuesday and lower 80s on Wednesday with light winds. Low
temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sun May 24 2020

Upper level ridging sits over the western U.S. Thursday as a closed
low shifts eastward over the Arklatex area with a trough north of
the Great Lakes. The ridge pushes over the central U.S. by Saturday
night forcing the trough east. The cutoff low retrogrades within
the ridge to over the Texas/Mexico border by Sunday night. A
closed low makes its way from the central California coast into
the Pacific Northwest leading to an upper level disturbance within
the ridge during the extended forecast period.

Surface high pressure sits over most of the Plains Thursday with low
pressure extending from the Great Lakes southwestward into the
Arklatex region. Low pressure begins to infringe on the high
pressure in the northwest Plains by Sunday.

The extended forecast period will be dry with high temperatures in
the mid-70s to upper 80s and lows in the 50s. Skies will be sunny to
partly cloudy. There could be elevated fire weather concerns next
Sunday but RH values are not below 20% yet and wind gusts do not yet
reach 25 mph in the forecast. Winds may increase due to the surface
pressure gradient as low pressure moves into the Plains and high
pressure extends into the central Plains from the east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 512 PM MDT Sun May 24 2020

GLD will transition from VFR to MVFR as rain showers move in and
ceilings lower. MVFR conditions will continue through the night
into Monday morning with showers diminishing after 11Z. Conditions
will return to VFR after 18Z.

MCK will transition from VFR to MVFR after 05Z as rain showers
move in. Rain showers will diminish after 11Z with conditions
returning to VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
251 AM MDT Sun May 24 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-250900-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
251 AM MDT Sun May 24 2020 /351 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
and evening, generally along and south of a line from Cheyenne Wells
to Oakley to Hill City. Large hail, damaging winds, and locally
heavy rainfall will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
827 PM MDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ001-013-250300-
Sherman KS-Cheyenne KS-
827 PM MDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHEYENNE AND NORTHWESTERN
SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 900 PM MDT/1000 PM
CDT/...

At 827 PM MDT/927 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 11 miles west of St.
Francis to 13 miles east of Bonny Reservoir to 4 miles northwest of
Ruleton. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
St. Francis and Wheeler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3999 10167 3971 10153 3950 10163 3937 10199
      3959 10198 3975 10205 3986 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 251DEG 38KT 3981 10201 3961 10192 3941 10192

AW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
946 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ004-250315-
Norton KS-
946 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTON COUNTY UNTIL
1015 PM CDT...

At 946 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of Edmond, or 16 miles southeast of Norton, moving north
at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Densmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3958 9969 3958 9978 3968 9981 3968 9965
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 184DEG 5KT 3963 9973

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
854 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNE GOODLAND          39.37N 101.70W
05/24/2020  M61 MPH          SHERMAN            KS   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KGLD GOODLAND.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
859 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNE GOODLAND          39.37N 101.70W
05/24/2020  M61 MPH          SHERMAN            KS   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KGLD GOODLAND.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
959 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ028-029-250330-
Gove KS-Logan KS-
959 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LOGAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN GOVE COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 959 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Scott State Lake, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
The Monument Rocks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10081 3878 10093 3898 10081 3885 10056
TIME...MOT...LOC 0259Z 218DEG 19KT 3880 10081

AW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1011 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

KSZ004-250345-
Norton KS-
1011 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTON COUNTY UNTIL
1045 PM CDT...

At 1010 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles west of Logan, or 18 miles southeast of Norton, moving east at
15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Norton
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3959 9971 3966 9974 3973 9963 3959 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 253DEG 12KT 3964 9967

AW