Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
531 PM MDT Sun May 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Sun May 24 2020

Visible satellite and surface obs reveal a complex scenario across
western and especially southwestern Kansas. Front has settled
along a Hays to Liberal line, with agitated cu ahead and along it.
There is also an outflow boundary racing westward and approaching
Hays, which may nudge the front into Gove/Sheridan/Graham counties
in the next few hours. If that happens, then cannot rule out those
areas getting on the warm/very unstable side of the front where
deep layer shear supports possible supercells between 21z and 00z
before moving east. Elsewhere, will be looking westward to
Colorado where large complex of thunderstorms will develop in the
post frontal upslope regime and move across the area this evening.
These storms have the potential of producing a large swath of
60-80 mph wind gusts this evening, as well as locally heavy
rainfall. Overnight, precipitation will shift eastward where
locally heavy rainfall will continue to be a risk. Low temperatures
will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s.

Monday will be cloudy and cool with scattered showers through the
day, most numerous in the morning. No severe storms are expected
due to lack of instability and additional rainfall amounts will be
light. High temperatures will generally be in the lower 60s,
perhaps a few degrees cooler. Low temperatures Monday night will
range from the upper 30s in northeast Colorado to middle 40s in
west central Kansas. Cannot rule out patchy frost in lower lying
areas of northeast Colorado.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry with the remnant upper low over
the southern plains and shortwave ridging from the desert
southwest to central Rockies. Temperatures will be in the middle
70s on Tuesday and lower 80s on Wednesday with light winds. Low
temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sun May 24 2020

Upper level ridging sits over the western U.S. Thursday as a closed
low shifts eastward over the Arklatex area with a trough north of
the Great Lakes. The ridge pushes over the central U.S. by Saturday
night forcing the trough east. The cutoff low retrogrades within
the ridge to over the Texas/Mexico border by Sunday night. A
closed low makes its way from the central California coast into
the Pacific Northwest leading to an upper level disturbance within
the ridge during the extended forecast period.

Surface high pressure sits over most of the Plains Thursday with low
pressure extending from the Great Lakes southwestward into the
Arklatex region. Low pressure begins to infringe on the high
pressure in the northwest Plains by Sunday.

The extended forecast period will be dry with high temperatures in
the mid-70s to upper 80s and lows in the 50s. Skies will be sunny to
partly cloudy. There could be elevated fire weather concerns next
Sunday but RH values are not below 20% yet and wind gusts do not yet
reach 25 mph in the forecast. Winds may increase due to the surface
pressure gradient as low pressure moves into the Plains and high
pressure extends into the central Plains from the east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 512 PM MDT Sun May 24 2020

GLD will transition from VFR to MVFR as rain showers move in and
ceilings lower. MVFR conditions will continue through the night
into Monday morning with showers diminishing after 11Z. Conditions
will return to VFR after 18Z.

MCK will transition from VFR to MVFR after 05Z as rain showers
move in. Rain showers will diminish after 11Z with conditions
returning to VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
251 AM MDT Sun May 24 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-250900-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
251 AM MDT Sun May 24 2020 /351 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
and evening, generally along and south of a line from Cheyenne Wells
to Oakley to Hill City. Large hail, damaging winds, and locally
heavy rainfall will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
729 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NNE AROYA             38.93N 103.07W
05/24/2020  E75 MPH          CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM 7
            NNE AROYA. ALSO ATTACHED PHOTOS OF SMALL
            HAIL COVERING MORE THAN HALF OF THE GROUND.
            VIA TWITTER. HAIL WAS UP TO HALF AN INCH IN
            DIAMETER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
731 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW FIRSTVIEW          38.80N 102.55W
05/24/2020  M59 MPH          CHEYENNE           CO   MESONET

&&