Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
401 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Update the forecast sent. Severe Thunderstorm Watch sent out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are mostly sunny
to sunny with temperatures currently ranging from the upper 80s to
lower 90s as of 100 pm MDT. Much of the CWA is seeing a SSE surface
wind around 10-15 mph. Locales in NE Colorado are seeing a mix of
variable winds as they are in a close proximity to surface
trough/front over central Colorado.

For the rest of the afternoon into this evening, the region awaits
convection to develop over western portions of the CWA, traveling
E/SE during the evening hours before exiting. Lots of instability
ahead of the trough/front with SPC analysis showing 5000-6000 J/KG
of SBcape, Dcape 1500-1800, decent shear with the SSE flow working
west and upper flow from the WNW. Convection is already starting to
crop up west of the CWA so do expect it to increase as the afternoon
progresses.

SPC has the region under a Slight Risk from an upgrade of Marginal
this morning. Hatched areas for wind, hail and even some tornadoes
have been expanded for the CWA. Localized flooding also possible.
The areas could be looking at threats of at least( 1-2" for hail, 60-
70 mph on winds with isolated tornadoes)

By the 06z Monday timeframe, region expected to be clear of precip,
with high pressure building east and surface trough west.

For temps, highs in the upper 80s for Monday with lows tonight in
the upper 50s to lower 60s, and lower 60s for Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020

As mentioned in previous discussions, a strong upper level ridge
extending from the Desert Southwest into western Canada will
continue to impact the Tri-State area through the long term period.
Current guidance shows the upper level ridge slowly moving east
towards the Four Corners region near the end of the week. As the
area of high pressure moves east, the amplitude of the ridge will
slightly dampen as a trough associated with a low over Quebec digs
into the Gulf of Mexico. With the position of the ridge during the
extended period, the Tri-State area will experience weak north to
northwest flow aloft. Throughout the extended period, shortwaves
will move across the Central High Plains region each day. Due to the
upper level pattern, any storm development will depend on conditions
near the surface. High temperatures will be in the 90s each day over
the extended period.

Tuesday a weak frontal boundary will move east across the area
decreasing humidity values to the upper teens in our eastern
Colorado counties. While the western portions of the area dry out,
our eastern counties have a higher chance of seeing showers and
thunderstorms in the evening. Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday
with a lower chance of showers and thunderstorms. Guidance has
convection initializing off the Colorado Front Range in the
afternoon and dissipating in the early evening before reaching the
Goodland CWA.

Thursday and Friday bring more chances of rain to the area.
Thursday, a front is expected to slowly move across the region
bringing a widespread chance of thunderstorms in the late afternoon
and evening. Friday morning, the front will continue to pass through
bringing chances of precipitation to our eastern counties that
should end before noon.

The weekend looks to be fairly similar to the rest of the week with
chances for thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening mainly
along and west of Hwy 27.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020

...Dangerous Aviation Conditions Associated with Severe
Thunderstorms This Afternoon and Evening...

Extreme turbulence, 50+ knot surface wind gusts, and large hail
associated with severe thunderstorms are possible at both
terminals this afternoon and evening, mainly between 21-04Z.

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail overnight into Monday.
Light southerly winds this afternoon will become variable
overnight, shifting to the NE-ENE at 10-15 knots late Monday
morning to early Monday afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN/KMK
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
154 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-172000-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
154 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020 /254 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the entire region until 10
PM MDT.

There is a Marginal and Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across
the entire area this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves
through the region. The worst potential conditions will be for areas
along and east of Highway 385 in Colorado. Some storms may produce
large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado. Locally
heavy
rainfall is also possible. Storms will exit the area to the south by
midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
414 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     HAIL             3 NNE MCCOOK            40.25N 100.60W
08/16/2020  M1.00 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   PUBLIC

            CALLER REPORTED HEAVY HAIL UP TO QUARTER
            SIZED THAT IS COVERING THE GROUND AND ROADS.
            HAIL IS FALLING LIKE A SNOW SHOWER WITH VERY
            LITTLE RAIN.

&&

KMK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
414 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020

COZ090-162230-
Yuma County CO-
414 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MDT...

At 414 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles east of Eckley to 6 miles north of
Yuma. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Yuma, Eckley and Vernon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3992 10228 4004 10272 4033 10277 4017 10235
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 336DEG 26KT 4009 10240 4022 10268

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
416 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HAIL             STRATTON                39.31N 102.60W
08/16/2020  E1.00 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

&&

TT

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