Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
152 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Update the forecast sent. Severe Thunderstorm Watch sent out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are mostly sunny
to sunny with temperatures currently ranging from the upper 80s to
lower 90s as of 100 pm MDT. Much of the CWA is seeing a SSE surface
wind around 10-15 mph. Locales in NE Colorado are seeing a mix of
variable winds as they are in a close proximity to surface
trough/front over central Colorado.

For the rest of the afternoon into this evening, the region awaits
convection to develop over western portions of the CWA, traveling
E/SE during the evening hours before exiting. Lots of instability
ahead of the trough/front with SPC analysis showing 5000-6000 J/KG
of SBcape, Dcape 1500-1800, decent shear with the SSE flow working
west and upper flow from the WNW. Convection is already starting to
crop up west of the CWA so do expect it to increase as the afternoon
progresses.

SPC has the region under a Slight Risk from an upgrade of Marginal
this morning. Hatched areas for wind, hail and even some tornadoes
have been expanded for the CWA. Localized flooding also possible.
The areas could be looking at threats of at least( 1-2" for hail, 60-
70 mph on winds with isolated tornadoes)

By the 06z Monday timeframe, region expected to be clear of precip,
with high pressure building east and surface trough west.

For temps, highs in the upper 80s for Monday with lows tonight in
the upper 50s to lower 60s, and lower 60s for Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020

As mentioned in previous discussions, a strong upper level ridge
extending from the Desert Southwest into western Canada will
continue to impact the Tri-State area through the long term period.
Current guidance shows the upper level ridge slowly moving east
towards the Four Corners region near the end of the week. As the
area of high pressure moves east, the amplitude of the ridge will
slightly dampen as a trough associated with a low over Quebec digs
into the Gulf of Mexico. With the position of the ridge during the
extended period, the Tri-State area will experience weak north to
northwest flow aloft. Throughout the extended period, shortwaves
will move across the Central High Plains region each day. Due to the
upper level pattern, any storm development will depend on conditions
near the surface. High temperatures will be in the 90s each day over
the extended period.

Tuesday a weak frontal boundary will move east across the area
decreasing humidity values to the upper teens in our eastern
Colorado counties. While the western portions of the area dry out,
our eastern counties have a higher chance of seeing showers and
thunderstorms in the evening. Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday
with a lower chance of showers and thunderstorms. Guidance has
convection initializing off the Colorado Front Range in the
afternoon and dissipating in the early evening before reaching the
Goodland CWA.

Thursday and Friday bring more chances of rain to the area.
Thursday, a front is expected to slowly move across the region
bringing a widespread chance of thunderstorms in the late afternoon
and evening. Friday morning, the front will continue to pass through
bringing chances of precipitation to our eastern counties that
should end before noon.

The weekend looks to be fairly similar to the rest of the week with
chances for thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening mainly
along and west of Hwy 27.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020

VFR conditions are forecast for both terminals. Looking for some
VCTS from about 22z-02z as a cold front moves through the area.
No reductions in visibility or ceilings at this time due to
timing issues of storm startup/movement.

Winds for KGLD, SE 5-10kts thru 23z, then ESE around 5-10kts. By
05z Monday, becoming SW around 10kts, then shifting to the NE
around 10kts by 14z.

Winds for KMCK, light/variable thru 22z, the ENE 5-10kts. By 01z
Monday, becoming light/variable again becoming NE around 10kts by
15z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN/KMK
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
154 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-172000-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
154 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020 /254 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the entire region until 10
PM MDT.

There is a Marginal and Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across
the entire area this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves
through the region. The worst potential conditions will be for areas
along and east of Highway 385 in Colorado. Some storms may produce
large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado. Locally
heavy
rainfall is also possible. Storms will exit the area to the south by
midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             8 NNW MAX               40.22N 101.44W
08/16/2020  E0.88 INCH       DUNDY              NE   PUBLIC

            CALLER REPORTED ONGOING HEAVY PEA TO NICKLE
            HAIL THAT HAD BEEN FALLING FOR A DURATION OF
            10 MINUTES. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             7 ENE KIRK              39.66N 102.48W
08/16/2020  E1.50 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

TT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
311 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             5 ENE STRATTON          40.18N 101.13W
08/16/2020  E0.70 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   PUBLIC

            CALLER REPORTED PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
320 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             6 NNW CULBERTSON        40.31N 100.89W
08/16/2020  E0.25 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED LIGHTLY FALLING PEA
            SIZED HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KMK