Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Hastings, NE

869 
WWUS53 KGID 240552
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1252 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

NEC077-175-240615-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200524T0615Z/
Greeley NE-Valley NE-
1252 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN GREELEY AND VALLEY COUNTIES...

At 1251 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Burwell to 6 miles southwest of Ord to 6 miles
west of Arcadia, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Ord, Arcadia, North Loup, Elyria and Fort Hartsuff State Park. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 9861 4145 9876 4139 9913 4140 9921
      4174 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0551Z 261DEG 16KT 4176 9910 4156 9904 4141 9925 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Pfannkuch

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
712 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

...Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

A front near the panhandle of Nebraska is expected to make its way
east and across parts of the local area overnight...providing a
trigger for potentially severe convection mainly north of
interstate 80. Ahead of this front...skies have cleared across
the area this afternoon...and temperatures have warmed fairly
nicely...and if a storm or two is able to develop in this
environment ahead of the anticipated front tonight...could see
some severe hail and strong wind gusts across the local area.
Model consensus initiating convection this afternoon and evening
is not great...although most guidance is at least hinting at
isolated convection...so cannot completely rule a few storms out
during the evening hours.

The better chance for convection will then come with the
anticipated front overnight. This front is expected to clip
portions of the forecast area generally along and north of
interstate 80...and with 2000-3000 J/KG of elevated CAPE...could
definitely see some pockets of severe hail reaching the size of
golf balls or possibly larger.

For Sunday...showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage across the center of the forecast area where the
aforementioned front will be located Sunday afternoon. While
again a few severe storms will be possible (see SPC outlook)...
with the stalled out nature of this front...heavy rain will also
become a reality...with widespread rainfall totals near 1 inch
possible from Sunday afternoon through early Monday. This
rainfall...on top of already saturated soils...could result in
additional minor flooding...but thankfully it does not look quite
as wet as just 12 hours ago.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat
May 23 2020

Instability will be on the decrease across the area Monday...and
while there could be a few thunderstorms around to start the
day...transitioned any remaining precipitation to showers by
afternoon. Thereafter...the pattern begins to change...and mainly
dry weather is anticipated across the local area through much of
the extended periods. This will be a result of a cut off low
developing across the southern plains and remaining stationary as
high pressure builds to its north and an omega block develops
across much of the intermountain west and extending into the local
area through the end of the work week. Model blends did keep a
very small pop in the forecast for Wednesday afternoon...but
confidence of this is not high...and will likely see that period
go dry if this pattern change continues in future model runs.
Temperature wise...seasonal temperatures are expected through the
extended periods with most locations staying in the 70s to near 80
much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 711 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

General overview:
High confidence in no worse than a low-VFR ceiling, VFR visibility
and dry conditions through at least the first 6 hours this
evening, before question marks arise later in the night/Sunday
morning as possible thunderstorm activity and potentially a
multiple-hour period of MVFR ceiling sets in. As for surface
winds, they will gradually turn from east-southeast to more "true"
southeasterly through the first 6-8 hours or so, with gust
potential commonly 15-20KT. Then, confidence in details lowers
especially during the 09-15Z time frame, as potential thunderstorm
outflow and the arrival of a slow-moving cold front muddy the
picture a bit. By the later morning and especially afternoon
hours, confidence is fairly high in modest northerly breezes
becoming established behind this boundary. Also wind-related, have
opted against a formal inclusion of low level wind shear (LLWS)
late tonight into early Monday morning for now due to some mixed
signals regarding its possible intensity, but this may need
considered with the next routine issuance.

Additional details:
- Although thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out both slightly
  before and after, have opted to confine all "vicinity" (VCTS)
  mention to the 8-12Z time frame, as this appears most favorable.
  Of course, there is decent uncertainty regarding whether storms
  will actually impact KGRI/KEAR, as much of this activity could
  remain slightly north. IF storms move in, strong outflow winds
  would be the main convective threat. Toward the end of the
  period, have opted to refrain from introducing more storm
  chances as they appear more favored slightly southeast of the
  area and/or later into the evening.

- Confidence is only medium-at-best regarding the timing
  onset/duration of MVFR ceiling. For now, am indicating around 10
  hours of this potential (mainly 10-20Z), but thunderstorm outlow
  (or lack thereof) could greatly modulate ceiling trends during
  this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
957 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
241200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
957 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible overnight within
the outlook area, especially near and north of Interstate 80 in
Nebraska. The main threat will be from a complex of thunderstorms
moving into the area from western Nebraska after midnight.
However, more isolated activity could also develop before midnight
ahead of this larger complex. Any severe storms would be capable
of producing hail up to around golf ball size, and damaging winds
of at least 60 MPH.

In addition overnight, Flood Warnings remain in effect along
portions of the Little Blue River in Adams, Clay, Nuckolls and
Thayer counties in Nebraska. Please refer to the Warning
statements for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Flood Warnings remain in effect into Sunday or Monday along
portions of the Little Blue River in Adams, Clay, Nuckolls and
Thayer counties. Please refer to the Warning statements for more
information.

Thunderstorm chances continue through the Memorial Day weekend,
and again across parts of the local area Wednesday afternoon.
Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening,
mainly for locations along and southeast of a line extending from
Phillipsburg Kansas to Genoa Nebraska. The primary hazards from
these storms will be hail to the size of ping pong balls and 60
mph wind gusts.

In addition, heavy rainfall amounts in excess of one inch are
possible with storms Sunday and Monday...and this additional
rainfall on already saturated grounds may aggravate ongoing
flooding issues, or cause new ones.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters activation may be needed overnight, mainly within
counties near and north of Interstate 80.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Pfannkuch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

NEZ039-240500-
Valley NE-
1128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VALLEY COUNTY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1128 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Comstock, or 8 miles south of Burwell, moving
north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elyria and Fort Hartsuff State Park.

LAT...LON 4174 9897 4154 9900 4158 9921 4174 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0428Z 187DEG 23KT 4166 9917

Billings Wright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1156 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

NEZ039-040-240530-
Valley NE-Greeley NE-
1156 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GREELEY AND NORTHEASTERN VALLEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1156 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Ericson, or 15 miles east of Ord, moving north at 40
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greeley and Spalding.

LAT...LON 4148 9829 4157 9890 4174 9889 4174 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 0456Z 188DEG 35KT 4168 9865

Billings Wright