Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1244 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

A front near the panhandle of Nebraska is expected to make its way
east and across parts of the local area overnight...providing a
trigger for potentially severe convection mainly north of
interstate 80. Ahead of this front...skies have cleared across
the area this afternoon...and temperatures have warmed fairly
nicely...and if a storm or two is able to develop in this
environment ahead of the anticipated front tonight...could see
some severe hail and strong wind gusts across the local area.
Model consensus initiating convection this afternoon and evening
is not great...although most guidance is at least hinting at
isolated convection...so cannot completely rule a few storms out
during the evening hours.

The better chance for convection will then come with the
anticipated front overnight. This front is expected to clip
portions of the forecast area generally along and north of
interstate 80...and with 2000-3000 J/KG of elevated CAPE...could
definitely see some pockets of severe hail reaching the size of
golf balls or possibly larger.

For Sunday...showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage across the center of the forecast area where the
aforementioned front will be located Sunday afternoon. While
again a few severe storms will be possible (see SPC outlook)...
with the stalled out nature of this front...heavy rain will also
become a reality...with widespread rainfall totals near 1 inch
possible from Sunday afternoon through early Monday. This
rainfall...on top of already saturated soils...could result in
additional minor flooding...but thankfully it does not look quite
as wet as just 12 hours ago.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat
May 23 2020

Instability will be on the decrease across the area Monday...and
while there could be a few thunderstorms around to start the
day...transitioned any remaining precipitation to showers by
afternoon. Thereafter...the pattern begins to change...and mainly
dry weather is anticipated across the local area through much of
the extended periods. This will be a result of a cut off low
developing across the southern plains and remaining stationary as
high pressure builds to its north and an omega block develops
across much of the intermountain west and extending into the local
area through the end of the work week. Model blends did keep a
very small pop in the forecast for Wednesday afternoon...but
confidence of this is not high...and will likely see that period
go dry if this pattern change continues in future model runs.
Temperature wise...seasonal temperatures are expected through the
extended periods with most locations staying in the 70s to near 80
much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

High-res guidance shows the southern end of this MCS brushing both
KEAR and KGRI around 08-09z. Could be slightly earlier. Think once
this convection moves through, it'll move out by 12z. Then there
will be a period of dry weather before thunderstorms are again
possible late this afternoon. The better chance will be for KGRI,
but KEAR is not out of it. LLWS is a concern in the short term as
a strong front moves through the region. Have kept ceilings VFR
for now, upstream ceilings aren't dropping to MVFR, so am on the
optimistic side of that. Will amend if necessary.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Billings Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
957 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
241200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
957 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible overnight within
the outlook area, especially near and north of Interstate 80 in
Nebraska. The main threat will be from a complex of thunderstorms
moving into the area from western Nebraska after midnight.
However, more isolated activity could also develop before midnight
ahead of this larger complex. Any severe storms would be capable
of producing hail up to around golf ball size, and damaging winds
of at least 60 MPH.

In addition overnight, Flood Warnings remain in effect along
portions of the Little Blue River in Adams, Clay, Nuckolls and
Thayer counties in Nebraska. Please refer to the Warning
statements for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Flood Warnings remain in effect into Sunday or Monday along
portions of the Little Blue River in Adams, Clay, Nuckolls and
Thayer counties. Please refer to the Warning statements for more
information.

Thunderstorm chances continue through the Memorial Day weekend,
and again across parts of the local area Wednesday afternoon.
Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening,
mainly for locations along and southeast of a line extending from
Phillipsburg Kansas to Genoa Nebraska. The primary hazards from
these storms will be hail to the size of ping pong balls and 60
mph wind gusts.

In addition, heavy rainfall amounts in excess of one inch are
possible with storms Sunday and Monday...and this additional
rainfall on already saturated grounds may aggravate ongoing
flooding issues, or cause new ones.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters activation may be needed overnight, mainly within
counties near and north of Interstate 80.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Pfannkuch

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