Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
611 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 450 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Increased/expanded PoPs through tonight to more closely match the
latest runs of the HRRR and other short term guidance. These
models show thunderstorms moving west to east through the forecast
area, mainly from 7pm to 1am tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

A mid-level embedded perturbation will help touch off some
thunderstorms this afternoon near the cold front in South Dakota,
and along a trough over Nebraska/Kansas this afternoon. Better
support for severe weather with potential northern MCS to develop,
keeping this mostly if not entirely out of our CWA where stronger
updrafts will be supported.

Hi-res models indicate the potential for convection to creep into
the CWA this evening into the overnight, but nowhere near the
support for severe weather as we had last night.

Went closer to HRRR/HRRREXP for highs Friday, based on recent model
performance statistics. Cold front will likely stall in the southern
CWA or just south for Friday, but best moisture hold on more to the
east. Our far east/southeast may be able to get in on some
convection for the evening, but not much to hang our hat on, and
generally looks dry for us Friday/Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

The story this weekend is HOT and WINDY! Saturday and Sunday look
very similar with highs above normal in the 90s and gusty winds.
Deep ridging will be in place over much of the central CONUS along
with an upper level trof approaching from the west. Expecting a
rather tight sfc pressure gradient on Saturday and Sunday ahead of
the trof. This will lead to sustained southerly sfc winds around 20-
30 kts. Model soundings also suggest the potential for mixing down
gusts to the sfc of around 40 kts. There could be a brief shot of
precip Saturday night for far western portions of the CWA, but don't
currently have a lot of confidence in this.

Sunday night a minor short wave along the leading edge of the trof
forms a cold front across the NE panhandle. As Monday comes around
this front will start to push southeast across western NE. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front late in
the day on Monday. These storms are expected to impact the CWA
overnight on Monday and into Tuesday as the front crosses through
from the NW to the SE. Behind the front we can expect cooler, more
seasonal temperatures for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Scattered thunderstorms expected to move from west to east in the
vicinity of the terminals this evening. The main threat to the
terminals will be brief gusty winds to around 60 MPH.

After the storms move through, skies will clear and winds will
shift from the southwest to northwest overnight, and eventually to
the east on Friday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Mangels
SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Shawkey
AVIATION...Mangels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
500 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
051200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
500 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move through the area
this evening and tonight, mainly between 7pm and 1am. Some of the
storms may be capable of producing large hail the size of half
dollars and damaging winds of 60 mph or greater.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Intermittent, small chances for thunderstorms exist across
portions of the outlook area Friday evening through Saturday
night. A few storms could be strong to severe, however widespread
severe weather is not expected at this time.

Looking ahead into next week, better chances for thunderstorms
return to the outlook area in the Monday night into Tuesday time
frame with the arrival of a cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on an isolated basis this
evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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