Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
334 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Tonight's forecast is challenging...largely because the high-
resolution CAMs have been struggling at best with the ongoing
convection and the convective evolution for tonight. Thus, confidence
is low on how tonight will evolve.

This evening: An isolated thunderstorm is ongoing northwest of the
forecast area. This(these) storms are not being handled well in
high-resolution CAMS...dissipating quickly in each run. However,
that is not the case and these storms are very robust and slowly
moving southeastward towards the forecast area. Confidence is low
on the evolution, but it's hard to say it won't at least reach
part of the area this evening. Shear is abundant and instability
is plentiful.

Later tonight: A secondary (maybe primary?) round of convection is
expected to move southeast out of southern South Dakota. This
convection is expected to slide southeast across primarly central
and eastern Nebraska. Confidence is slightly higher on this
evolution as high-res and other guidance has indicated this
evolution for the past 24 hours. It continues to track eastward.
The main question is how far west this secondary line will move.
The primary area still looks to be east of a line from Lexington
to Hebron. Wind will be the primary threat with this later
convection, but cannot rule out hail as well.

Saturday:
We will be in the wake of the upper disturbance from tonight with
surface high pressure moving overhead. Highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s with light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Sunday looks quiet, but we are in northwesterly flow aloft so some
activity along the High Plains could move eastward, but currently
a dry forecast.

The upper pattern does dampen and become more zonal through the
work-week. This allow a few different disturbances to move across
the area, bringing better chances for thunderstorms. The best
chances look to be Monday night through Wednesday. There are
discrepancies with the timing of the systems, so confidence is
low on any specifics at this time.

Highs are generally seasonal in the upper 80s to 90s through the
remainder of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

VFR conditions expected through the afternoon. Some high end MVFR
ceilings are visible to the west of the TAF sites, and a few to
scattered deck could move in, but have left it out at this time as
soundings don't support it fully. The main concern is
thunderstorms tonight. High resolution guidance continues to keep
KEAR/KGRI on the edge of the primary concern area. The terminals
could be sideswiped or missed by convection. However, with
confidence overly low, kept the VCTS in both TAFs for much of the
overnight hours. Winds are expected to shift to the north as the
front/convection moves southeast. Do have a period of gusty winds
for the potential for some outflow with the convection before
becoming calmer and northerly for the daytime hours Saturday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
248 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
112000-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
248 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a chance for thunderstorms to move into central Nebraska
late this afternoon and early evening with the primary threats
being hail to the size of golf balls and damaging winds up to 70
mph.

Then later into the late evening and overnight hours,
thunderstorms are expected to move southeast across eastern
portions of the forecast area. Damaging winds are the primary
threat with gusts up to 70 mph and hail to 1.5 inches possible.
The best chances for thunderstorms during the overnight hours will
be for areas east of a line from Lexington to Hebron, NE. That
being said, strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out across the
whole outlook area through the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast for the next work-week
with scattered chances each day. The best chances look to be
Monday night and Tuesday night. Some storms could be strong to
severe, but details are not known at this time. Stay tuned to the
forecast for updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may needed this evening or overnight tonight
across portions of central and south central Nebraska. Reports of
severe winds and hail of any size are always appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Billings Wright

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE LEXINGTON         40.79N 99.74W
07/10/2020                   DAWSON             NE   PUBLIC

            TIME APPROXIMATED FROM RADAR. PHOTOS FROM
            FACEBOOK.

&&

KS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
410 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NEZ039-046-102200-
Valley NE-Sherman NE-
410 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN SHERMAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 409 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking severe thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Taylor to near Merna. Movement was
southeast at 35 mph.

People in Valley and northwestern Sherman Counties should monitor
the weather situation closely.  A warning may be needed for portions
of Valley and Sherman counties within the next 45 minutes if these
storms maintain their intensity as they get closer. Be ready to seek
shelter if severe weather threatens.

LAT...LON 4162 9875 4157 9875 4110 9921 4174 9921
      4174 9914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 298DEG 29KT 4172 9943 4150 9968

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