Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
109 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

So far it's been a quieter day today with light winds and slightly
cooler temps in the 80s. This quiet weather has the potential to
continue through the weekend, though there are still a few key
uncertainties.

Tonight: SW of a line from Ravenna to Hastings NE to Beloit KS is in
a SPC Marginal Risk for severe weather tonight. Overall the risk
appears to be rather low and fairly short lived. Upslope flow will
help to develop a few strong to severe storms over western NE later
this evening which will begin to propagate eastward. Throughout
the day today short term models have come into better agreement
regarding these storms. It's looking increasingly like they will
die off as they approach us from the west, and any that do make it
into the CWA will likely be non-severe and short lived. Have kept
weak PoPs in there for tonight to account for this potential.
Wind would be the main concern again, but not nearly as much as
last night, much more of an isolated potential tonight.

Tomorrow: Expecting a rather seasonal day with highs in the upper
80s to near 90 with light winds turning back to southerly. Tomorrow
evening is where there is still a bit of uncertainty. A second cold
front, that is over the Dakotas, is expected to progress
southeastward with convection developing along the front in the late
afternoon and evening. There has been some flip-flopping in the
models as to whether or not this convection passes through the
northeastern portions of our CWA. Currently it looks like the main
system will stay just far enough east that we may only be "grazed"
by a few storms. SPC adjusted the severe weather outlook so that now
only the northern most portion of our CWA is in the Slight Risk
area. The NAMNEST and the ECMWF look to be the most aggressive
solutions, with storms passing through portions of our area mainly
east of HWY 281. Again the main threat would be wind, along with the
potential for large hail initially.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

As we head into the weekend the summer like weather continues as a
strong ridge builds over the SW CONUS and sets us up under NW flow.
Hit and miss storm chances show up in several days during the long
term as minor perturbations crest over the ridge and slide
southeastward across the Central Plains. The next day to really
focus on would be Tuesday as the ridge begins to break down and flow
becomes more zonal aloft. A shortwave trof looks to pass through the
Central and Northern Plains bringing our next major cold front and
decent chance for storm development. This is still far enough out
though that quite a bit could change between now and then. Flow then
looks to remain fairly zonal with regular isolated summer storm
chances, but nothing out of the ordinary for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through the period.
Expect thunderstorm activity early this morning entering Dawson
county to scoot mainly west and south of Kearney over the next
hour or so as it dissipates. May need to update KEAR TAF if the
activity holds together, but model data is very skeptical that it
will. Otherwise...once these storms pass tonight...expect mainly
clear skies and light and variable winds early Friday
morning...with increasing southerly winds gusting to near 20 KTS
Friday afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens across the
region. The next upper level disturbance could bring some
thunderstorm activity to both terminals late Friday night...and
will monitor this possibility for the 12Z TAFs later this morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Shawkey
LONG TERM...Shawkey
AVIATION...Rossi

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
618 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
101200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
618 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

While not widespread, there is the potential for an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorm this evening, mainly after 10pm,
for locations southwest of a Kearney to Superior line in
Nebraska. Large hail of quarter size or greater and damaging winds
of 60 mph will be the primary storm hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Severe thunderstorms are also possible Friday night, bringing a
continued threat for large hail and damaging winds. Additional
chances for thunderstorms continue intermittently across portions
of the outlook area from Saturday through Thursday. Be sure to
stay up to date on the latest forecasts as storm details are
refined.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may needed on an isolated basis after 10 pm
tonight southwest of a line from Kearney to Superior Nebraska.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Heinlein

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
802 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N OAK                 40.29N 97.92W
07/09/2020                   NUCKOLLS           NE   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT AND PHOTO OF A LARGE GRAIN
            BIN DESTROYED. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PFANNKUCH