Alert archive / Nebraska / Red Flag Warnings in 2020

Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Hastings, NE

October 11, 202014 counties in Nebraska

NWS Hastings, NE issued this red flag warning at Oct 11, 2020, 3:33 PM CDT for 14 counties in Nebraska. It took effect at Oct 12, 2020, 1:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 11, 2020, 3:33 PM CDT (20:33 UTC)
In effect from: Oct 12, 2020, 1:00 PM CDT
Expired: Oct 12, 2020, 7:14 PM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: NWS Hastings, NE

Counties Adams County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Hall County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Howard County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Valley County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1827 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 275 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 280 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Oct 11, 3:33 PM CDT, 0 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 11, 3:33 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
333 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

Satellite shows the stratocumulus decreasing in the northeast part
of the forecast area this afternoon. The cold front is just moving
into the far western part of the forecast area.

The cold front will continue to move through the forecast area
during the afternoon and early evening. As the upper level wave
moves into the area early this evening, there could be some
thunderstorms that develop just behind the front. With the front
most of the way through the forecast area by 00Z this evening, the
thunderstorms are mainly expected to be in the eastern part of the
area. A few of the models have some post frontal precipitation so
have kept PoPs a little longer and further to the west.

Another concern for tonight are the winds. Behind the front, the
winds could gust to around 50 mph, but this should only be for a few
hours after the front moves through.

Once the winds fall off toward morning, temperatures will drop off.
The concern is that the winds will not be light enough for
temperatures to drop as much. With temperatures a little warmer,
there would be little to no frost.

A surface high will slide south of the forecast area on Monday and
with sunny skies, there will be temperatures in the 70s. Gusty winds
from the west will help to dry things out and expect there to be
critical fire weather concerns for much of the Nebraska portion of
the area. Will have a Red Flag Warning for this area.

Monday night through next Sunday will have northwest flow. There are
a few weak waves that move through the area but they are dry. With
the waves there are a few weak cold fronts that move through.
Temperatures will be up and down through the middle of the week,
then cooler.

The first cold front will be Monday night and Tuesday will be
cooler, but warm advection Tuesday night into Wednesday will allow
for warmer temperatures again. There could also be some near critical
fire weather concerns Wednesday afternoon.

The strongest upper wave and cold front will be Wednesday night when
temperatures turn to the cooler side. Thursday night and Friday
night are expected to be cool enough for some frost and even
freezing temperature are possible for portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

The stratocumulus is breaking up and moving out this afternoon and
should only be an hour or so before it moves out of the terminals.
Gusty south winds will let up only a little before turning to the
northwest and increasing again late this afternoon and this
evening. There could be a few thunderstorms just behind the front
mainly during the early evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ060-072-073-
     082-083.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039-040-046-
     047-060>062-072>075-082>084.

KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-017.

&&

DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...JCB

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 11, 3:54 AM CDT, 11 hours 39 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Hastings, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 11, 3:10 AM CDT	Fire Weather Watch	GID	Adams, Buffalo, Dawson, Franklin, Furnas, Gosper and 8 more	12 hr
Oct 11, 3:10 AM CDT	Red Flag Warning	GID	Dawson, Furnas, Gosper, Harlan, Phelps	18 hr
Oct 11, 5:27 PM CDT	High Wind Warning	GID	Furnas, Harlan	6 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Nebraska, 2020 Every red flag warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.