High Wind Warning 5, NWS Hastings, NE

762 
WWUS73 KGID 120401
NPWGID

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1101 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ082-083-120515-
/O.EXP.KGID.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-201012T0400Z/
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Furnas-Harlan-
Including the cities of Phillipsburg, Bellaire, Smith Center, 
Kensington, Mankato, Jewell, Ionia, Burr Oak, Codell, Plainville,
Stockton, Osborne, Downs, Beloit, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, 
Beaver City, Hollinger, Alma, and Orleans
1101 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

The strongest winds have ended. Gusts up to 45 MPH will remain 
possible through midnight, but will continue to gradually decrease
overnight. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
333 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

Satellite shows the stratocumulus decreasing in the northeast part
of the forecast area this afternoon. The cold front is just moving
into the far western part of the forecast area.

The cold front will continue to move through the forecast area
during the afternoon and early evening. As the upper level wave
moves into the area early this evening, there could be some
thunderstorms that develop just behind the front. With the front
most of the way through the forecast area by 00Z this evening, the
thunderstorms are mainly expected to be in the eastern part of the
area. A few of the models have some post frontal precipitation so
have kept PoPs a little longer and further to the west.

Another concern for tonight are the winds. Behind the front, the
winds could gust to around 50 mph, but this should only be for a few
hours after the front moves through.

Once the winds fall off toward morning, temperatures will drop off.
The concern is that the winds will not be light enough for
temperatures to drop as much. With temperatures a little warmer,
there would be little to no frost.

A surface high will slide south of the forecast area on Monday and
with sunny skies, there will be temperatures in the 70s. Gusty winds
from the west will help to dry things out and expect there to be
critical fire weather concerns for much of the Nebraska portion of
the area. Will have a Red Flag Warning for this area.

Monday night through next Sunday will have northwest flow. There are
a few weak waves that move through the area but they are dry. With
the waves there are a few weak cold fronts that move through.
Temperatures will be up and down through the middle of the week,
then cooler.

The first cold front will be Monday night and Tuesday will be
cooler, but warm advection Tuesday night into Wednesday will allow
for warmer temperatures again. There could also be some near critical
fire weather concerns Wednesday afternoon.

The strongest upper wave and cold front will be Wednesday night when
temperatures turn to the cooler side. Thursday night and Friday
night are expected to be cool enough for some frost and even
freezing temperature are possible for portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

The stratocumulus is breaking up and moving out this afternoon and
should only be an hour or so before it moves out of the terminals.
Gusty south winds will let up only a little before turning to the
northwest and increasing again late this afternoon and this
evening. There could be a few thunderstorms just behind the front
mainly during the early evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ060-072-073-
     082-083.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039-040-046-
     047-060>062-072>075-082>084.

KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-017.

&&

DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...JCB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
352 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
121200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
352 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected due to low humidity
and northwesterly winds behind the front. The most significant
threat is along and west of a line from Lexington to Holdrege to
Stockton. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for this area.

Scattered thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the
front, mainly after 6pm. The strongest of these storms may
produce penny size hail and isolated wind gusts to 60 MPH. The
most likely area for strong to severe storms is southeast of a
line from Red Cloud to Hastings to Columbus.

Behind the cold front, we will see strong northwesterly winds
persist through roughly 10pm this evening. Gusts around 50 MPH
are possible, with the highest winds expected to be over portions
of northern Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Dry air and gusty southwest winds will lead to critical fire
weather conditions for portions of the area on Monday. A Red Flag
warning has been issued for this area.

Another day of at least near-critical fire weather conditions is
possible on Wednesday.

Areas of frost are possible each night Wednesday through
Saturday. Thursday night is forecast to be the coldest night of
the week, and some locations will likely even see temperatures dip
below freezing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for thunderstorms after 6pm this
evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings