Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
639 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Convection has developed across eastern ND and the northern valley
over the passed 60 to 90min. Severe thunderstorm watch exists
through midnight for much of the area. From a mesoanalysis stand
point the strongest storms due to stronger shear and better mid
level lapse rates should be across the NE ND in the near term.
Supercell currently exists in Walsh County with more multicellular
activity to the south. This activity will lift to the north
northeast with the area of activity gradually shifting to the east
this evening. Additional development is expected in the southern
valley and eventually in MN later this evening into the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Convective trends and strength will continue to be the main
headache for the period.

Festering elevated convection continues to linger over
northeastern ND along an axis of warm air advection. The big
question is if we will get some surface based development later on
this afternoon or evening along the stalled front extending from
our northwestern edge of the CWA into south central ND. Heating
has been a bit better than expected, with areas that saw rain from
the elevated activity quickly recovering into the 90s. Capping
therefore is not as strong as expected, but there continues to not
be that great of upper forcing with the shortwave still to the
southwest. There is some question on if we will get some surface
based convection going in the next hour or so, or if initiation
will hold off until closer to 00Z with the upper support. CAMs
would support the second scenario but have been doing poorly with
our elevated convection so will be taking them with a grain of
salt. Starting to see some better glaciation of the clouds
extending into south central ND, so think there may be some
development in the next few hours in that area. Have some pretty
high POPs and will continue to keep a severe mention, probably
more for one and a half inch hail and 60-70 mph winds as the
supercell chances diminish as storms head into our area. The
severe threat will continue into portions of the overnight as
another weak shortwave lifts northeastward from SD along the
boundary that is slowly moving eastward.

The pretty active pattern will continue into tomorrow with the
overnight shortwave lifting into MN and Ontario, and the surface
trough axis and cold front pushing slowly east. With showers and
thunderstorms ongoing in the morning, do not think we will
destabilize as much as today, but can't completely rule out
something pulsing up in west central MN on Thursday. Decent cold
air advection behind the surface trough should knock temps down
into the 70s, and even some 40s and 50s will be possible Thursday
night as we get some decreasing clouds and cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Main chance for impactful weather will come over the weekend, with
good chances for at least some strong, if not severe, tstms.

Fri looks to be drier and seasonally mild, as a Canadian airmass
descends upon the Northern Plains behind the departing cold front.
Afternoon highs look to be in the seasonal 70s with cooler overnight
lows from the upper 40s into the 50s. The weekend for our region
still looks to feature an upper low north of the border likely to
spin a couple of spokes/lobes through the forecast area. Sfc based
CAPE and bulk shear during the aftn/early eve each day look to be
sufficient for at least strong tstms, especially if short waves are
coincident with time of peak heating.

Another boundary passage slated for later Sun will be succeeded by a
dry and seasonal beginning to the new week. The next convective
chance should present on Tue, with increasing CAPE/shear values in
advance of a sfc boundary/shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Thunderstorms expected over the next 6 to 8 hours for the all but
BJI. DVL will just be VCTS. FAR , GFK and TVF will all see some
TS activity in the 4 to 8Z time frame. LLWS expected at BJI as
winds decouple this evening. In the wake of the convection some
MVFR CIGs will be possible towards morning with VFR and westerly
winds expected tomorrow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
514 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-181015-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
514 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
into the early evening. Fires that develop may be hard to control.

Thunderstorm chances increase by this evening, and periods of
showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight across the
region. Severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon
through this evening, with hail up to 2 inches, damaging winds to
75 mph, and tornadoes will be possible. Locally heavy rainfall
and slow moving thunderstorms may lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers and thunderstorms will continue Thursday morning, ending
in ND first but lingering in Minnesota into the afternoon. A few
severe thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon along
and east of a line from Lake of the Woods to Otter Tail County.
Hail to 1 inch and 60 mph winds would be the main threats.
Locally heavy rainfall will also remain possible in Minnesota.

Periodic thunderstorm chances will continue through early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
805 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     TSTM WND GST     GRAND FORKS AFB         47.96N 97.38W
06/17/2020  M69 MPH          GRAND FORKS        ND   AWOS

&&

JKAISER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
810 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LISBON                  46.44N 97.68W
06/17/2020                   RANSOM             ND   PUBLIC

            TREE DAMAGED REPORTED FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES.

&&

JKAISER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
816 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W REYNOLDS            47.67N 97.19W
06/17/2020  M69 MPH          Traill             ND   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JKAISER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
829 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-NDZ027-029-030-180230-
East Marshall MN-Pennington MN-Kittson MN-West Polk MN-Roseau MN-
West Marshall MN-Steele ND-Traill ND-Grand Forks ND-
829 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARSHALL...NORTHWESTERN POLK...
SOUTHEASTERN KITTSON...WESTERN ROSEAU...WESTERN PENNINGTON...EASTERN
GRAND FORKS...NORTHWESTERN TRAILL AND SOUTHEASTERN STEELE COUNTIES
UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 829 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Argyle to near Fisher. Movement was
northeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Forks, Thief River Falls, East Grand Forks, Mayville, Warren,
Thompson and Karlstad.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northwestern Minnesota...and southeastern and northeastern North
Dakota.

LAT...LON 4893 9584 4824 9591 4796 9641 4796 9648
      4792 9648 4728 9760 4819 9719 4820 9714
      4832 9713
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 232DEG 34KT 4838 9672 4774 9684

CJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
841 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 W ELDRED              47.68N 96.89W
06/17/2020                   Polk               MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JKAISER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
849 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE PEKIN              47.81N 98.30W
06/17/2020  M58.00 MPH       Nelson             ND   MESONET

0731 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW EMERADO           47.93N 97.40W
06/17/2020  M58.00 MPH       Grand Forks        ND   MESONET

0820 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW DONALDSON         48.56N 96.94W
06/17/2020  M68.00 MPH       Kittson            MN   MESONET

0838 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSE BUXTON            47.55N 97.07W
06/17/2020  M66.00 MPH       Traill             ND   MESONET

&&

JKAISER