Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
639 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Convection has developed across eastern ND and the northern valley
over the passed 60 to 90min. Severe thunderstorm watch exists
through midnight for much of the area. From a mesoanalysis stand
point the strongest storms due to stronger shear and better mid
level lapse rates should be across the NE ND in the near term.
Supercell currently exists in Walsh County with more multicellular
activity to the south. This activity will lift to the north
northeast with the area of activity gradually shifting to the east
this evening. Additional development is expected in the southern
valley and eventually in MN later this evening into the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Convective trends and strength will continue to be the main
headache for the period.

Festering elevated convection continues to linger over
northeastern ND along an axis of warm air advection. The big
question is if we will get some surface based development later on
this afternoon or evening along the stalled front extending from
our northwestern edge of the CWA into south central ND. Heating
has been a bit better than expected, with areas that saw rain from
the elevated activity quickly recovering into the 90s. Capping
therefore is not as strong as expected, but there continues to not
be that great of upper forcing with the shortwave still to the
southwest. There is some question on if we will get some surface
based convection going in the next hour or so, or if initiation
will hold off until closer to 00Z with the upper support. CAMs
would support the second scenario but have been doing poorly with
our elevated convection so will be taking them with a grain of
salt. Starting to see some better glaciation of the clouds
extending into south central ND, so think there may be some
development in the next few hours in that area. Have some pretty
high POPs and will continue to keep a severe mention, probably
more for one and a half inch hail and 60-70 mph winds as the
supercell chances diminish as storms head into our area. The
severe threat will continue into portions of the overnight as
another weak shortwave lifts northeastward from SD along the
boundary that is slowly moving eastward.

The pretty active pattern will continue into tomorrow with the
overnight shortwave lifting into MN and Ontario, and the surface
trough axis and cold front pushing slowly east. With showers and
thunderstorms ongoing in the morning, do not think we will
destabilize as much as today, but can't completely rule out
something pulsing up in west central MN on Thursday. Decent cold
air advection behind the surface trough should knock temps down
into the 70s, and even some 40s and 50s will be possible Thursday
night as we get some decreasing clouds and cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Main chance for impactful weather will come over the weekend, with
good chances for at least some strong, if not severe, tstms.

Fri looks to be drier and seasonally mild, as a Canadian airmass
descends upon the Northern Plains behind the departing cold front.
Afternoon highs look to be in the seasonal 70s with cooler overnight
lows from the upper 40s into the 50s. The weekend for our region
still looks to feature an upper low north of the border likely to
spin a couple of spokes/lobes through the forecast area. Sfc based
CAPE and bulk shear during the aftn/early eve each day look to be
sufficient for at least strong tstms, especially if short waves are
coincident with time of peak heating.

Another boundary passage slated for later Sun will be succeeded by a
dry and seasonal beginning to the new week. The next convective
chance should present on Tue, with increasing CAPE/shear values in
advance of a sfc boundary/shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Thunderstorms expected over the next 6 to 8 hours for the all but
BJI. DVL will just be VCTS. FAR , GFK and TVF will all see some
TS activity in the 4 to 8Z time frame. LLWS expected at BJI as
winds decouple this evening. In the wake of the convection some
MVFR CIGs will be possible towards morning with VFR and westerly
winds expected tomorrow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
514 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-181015-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
514 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
into the early evening. Fires that develop may be hard to control.

Thunderstorm chances increase by this evening, and periods of
showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight across the
region. Severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon
through this evening, with hail up to 2 inches, damaging winds to
75 mph, and tornadoes will be possible. Locally heavy rainfall
and slow moving thunderstorms may lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers and thunderstorms will continue Thursday morning, ending
in ND first but lingering in Minnesota into the afternoon. A few
severe thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon along
and east of a line from Lake of the Woods to Otter Tail County.
Hail to 1 inch and 60 mph winds would be the main threats.
Locally heavy rainfall will also remain possible in Minnesota.

Periodic thunderstorm chances will continue through early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
701 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             HANNAFORD               47.31N 98.19W
06/17/2020  E1.50 INCH       GRIGGS             ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PICTURE OF HAIL STONE - TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

JKAISER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
706 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

NDZ029-030-038-039-049-052-053-180100-
Sargent ND-Steele ND-Richland ND-Traill ND-Ransom ND-Barnes ND-
Cass ND-
706 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RANSOM...WESTERN CASS...
SOUTHWESTERN TRAILL...BARNES...NORTHWESTERN RICHLAND...SOUTHERN
STEELE AND WESTERN SARGENT COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 706 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Oriska, or 8 miles northeast of Valley City, moving northeast at 55
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Valley City, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Hope, Tower City and Page.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4663 9803 4663 9823 4692 9832 4718 9819
      4724 9802 4724 9796 4726 9796 4745 9745
      4662 9714 4593 9793 4593 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 206DEG 47KT 4700 9788

CJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
724 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

MNZ004-007-NDZ008-016-180115-
Kittson MN-West Marshall MN-Pembina ND-Eastern Walsh County ND-
724 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...
KITTSON...NORTHEASTERN WALSH AND SOUTHEASTERN PEMBINA COUNTIES UNTIL
815 PM CDT...

At 724 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pisek, or 12 miles west of Grafton, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grafton, Park River, Hallock, Drayton, Stephen, Minto and Lancaster.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northwestern Minnesota...and northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4898 9640 4825 9698 4833 9786 4853 9779
      4900 9698 4900 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 251DEG 34KT 4836 9766

CJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
732 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S ORISKA              46.92N 97.79W
06/17/2020                   Barnes             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEMI TRAILER BLOWN OFF I94 NEAR ORISKA. ALSO REPORTED A
            BOAT BLOWING OFF TRAILER.

&&

JKAISER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
738 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GOLDEN LAKE             47.58N 97.64W
06/17/2020                   STEELE             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULITPLE BOATS FLIPPED ON GOLDEN LAKE.

&&

JKAISER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
743 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE ROBBIN             48.63N 97.05W
06/17/2020                   Kittson            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MUTLIPLE TREES UPROOTED.

&&

JKAISER