Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Grand Forks, ND

705 
WWUS53 KFGF 080005
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
705 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

MNC069-NDC067-080030-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-200608T0030Z/
Kittson MN-Pembina ND-
705 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN KITTSON AND NORTHEASTERN PEMBINA COUNTIES...

At 705 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Joliette, or 30
miles north of Grafton, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Pembina, St. Vincent, Humboldt, Glasston, Noyes and Joliette. 

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 200 and 217.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northwestern
Minnesota...and northeastern North Dakota.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4900 9704 4876 9713 4868 9749 4900 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 194DEG 27KT 4884 9725 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Lynch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
526 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 524 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Storms continue to fire in an unstable environment with ML CAPE
of 2000 to 3500 J/kg along and near a warm front across northeast
North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Most of the convection thus
far has occurred in northwest Minnesota along or ahead of the
warm front where there is better effective SRH with values ranging
from 200 to 500 m2/s2. There has been some additional development
of storms near the Red River as storms interacted with an outflow
boundary caused by earlier convection. This intersection of
boundaries is an area that could produce intensification that
could result in a tornado. This initial wave of storms continues
to move north towards Canada at 30 to 50 mph. So far storms have
been discrete, but close together such that they have been
fighting each other for the favorable environment.

With additional cumulus towers present farther south within the
Tornado Watch area additional storms are expected to fire along
the Highway 200 and Interstate 94 Corridor. These storms will be
moving with the same storm motion to the north where the
environment remains favorable for additional severe development.
One of the limiting factors continues to be high LCLs with most of
the area above 1.5 km. There are some lower LCLs ahead of the
warm front so if storms can fire behind the front and maintain
themselves across the front tornadoes would be likely. This will
likely be the main window for tornadoes as later convection is
more likely to be of a linear storm mode with wind as the primary
threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

For this evening...see the mesoscale discussion above. Mesoscale
discussion does not address excessive rainfall threat, but it is
something to keep in mind.  Storms will develop and move
across the same area this evening. Given very high PWATS ~1.6
inches precipitation rates will be efficient. HREF indicates areas
along the boundary will likely receive at least 2 inches of rain,
with the potential for up to 7-10 inches in localized areas.
Although we've been dry the past few weeks, this would still
likely lead to impacts.

For Monday...main concern will be severe potential east of the
valley where warm sector remains. Favorable environment will be in
place given moderate instability and strong deep layer shear. Most
guidance at least suggests scattered storms during the evening
hours, with main ingredient lacking being strong forcing.

Monday night into Tuesday night...still some uncertainty, but
guidance is trending wetter for the eastern half of our forecast
area. Mid-level baroclinic zone with strong Fgen will lead to
periods of showers, with main question exactly how far west will
showers occur. This is hinges on the track of the tropical
depression. Will need to monitor as preceding rainfall events with
an additional 1-4 inches of rain would lead to some flooding
impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

West to northwest flow prevails on Wednesday, with H5 ridging to the
west and troughing to the east. An upper low, situated off the coast
of the Pacific Northwest, will work slowly eastward through the end
of the week, with ridging sliding eastward ahead of it. Synoptic
patterns within ensemble guidance suggest a continued active pattern
for Wednesday and Thursday, with quiet and drier weather likely
Friday and into the weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday: Rain and thunderstorm chances remain in the
forecast for Wednesday into Thursday, mainly for northwestern and
west-central MN. A slow-moving upper trough will move southeastward
along the flow pattern, prolonging our rain chances for the eastern
most counties within the CWA into Thursday. Instability looks low,
thus widespread severe weather is not supported at this time. High
temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be a bit cooler, in the
mid-60s to mid-70s.

Friday through Sunday: Warmer but primarily dry weather is expected
as temperatures rebound into the 70s to lower 80s with low humidity.
H5 ridging prevails during this time frame with subsidence
contributing to the diminished rain and thunderstorm chances. PW is
expected to be less than normal during this time frame as well.
Impacts during the Friday through Sunday time frame could include an
increased fire weather concern, but overall should remain relatively
quiet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

VFR cigs and vsby for much of this afternoon, albeit with breezy
winds. Main concern this period will be thunderstorm potential,
some storms will be strong to severe this evening, with the threat
ending after midnight (closer to sunrise for KBJI).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

MESOSCALE...NC
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...TG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
329 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-081430-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
329 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across the region.
A couple tornadoes are possible, including the possibility for a
strong and especially dangerous tornado. In addition, any storm has
the potential to produce very large and destructive hail greater
than 2 inches, and destructive wind gusts greater than 75 mph.
Storms will initially be scattered, eventually evolving into
clusters of storms. The threat will remain isolated and then
increase in coverage after 6pm. Excessive rainfall is also possible
if storms move across the same location multiple times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong to severe storms will again be possible Monday within
Minnesota with hail up to an inch and winds around 60mph. General
thunderstorm chances continue through Wednesday, with excessive
rainfall possibly leading to flash flooding Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
526 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             6 ENE THIEF RIVER FALLS 48.15N 96.06W
06/07/2020  E1.75 INCH       Pennington         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
546 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             1 NW HALMA              48.67N 96.61W
06/07/2020  E1.00 INCH       Kittson            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
549 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             MINTO                   48.29N 97.37W
06/07/2020  M1.25 INCH       WALSH              ND   PUBLIC

            REPORT RECEIVED VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
602 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             MINTO                   48.29N 97.37W
06/07/2020  M1.75 INCH       WALSH              ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
605 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

MNZ013>015-072345-
Red Lake MN-Pennington MN-East Polk MN-
605 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RED LAKE...SOUTH CENTRAL
POLK AND EASTERN PENNINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 604 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Maple Bay, or 32 miles south of Thief River Falls, moving northeast
at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Mentor, Erskine and Marcoux around 610 PM CDT.
  Brooks and Terrebonne around 620 PM CDT.
  Plummer around 630 PM CDT.
  High Landing and Mavie around 645 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northwestern
Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4754 9611 4761 9635 4816 9602 4811 9562
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 204DEG 43KT 4764 9619

Knutsvig

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
608 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             5 NNW STEPHEN           48.52N 96.92W
06/07/2020  M1.50 INCH       MARSHALL           MN   PUBLIC

&&