Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
216 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

See mesoscale discussion issued at 1:43pm for latest thinking on
evolution of storms and main threats through ~5pm. As of 2:15pm,
it appears that large DCAPE combined with storms starting to
become more surface based has allowed for the significant wind
threat to increase rapidly. This area also favorable for a tornado
over the next couple hours given favorable low level shear
environment. Anticipate this activity to build southeast into
greatest instability with swaths of significant winds the main
threat (along with the threats of ~2 inches, brief tornado, and
localized flash flooding).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

For Saturday...winds become northwesterly behind the system bringing
in cooler and drier air to the region as surface high pressure
builds in and storms continue moving east.

The pattern through the rest of the period beginning on Sunday shows
the upper trof sagging to the south...which will help keep
temperatures a bit more seasonable through the middle of next week
when ridging returns and temperatures again gradually warm up.
Otherwise...a series of disturbances will propagate through the
flow...keeping chances for precipitation in the picture through the
end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

Main aviation threat will be a line of thunderstorms expected to
move through the region from west to east. This line of
thunderstorms will likely contain very strong wind gusts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ038-039-049-052-
     053.

MN...None.

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...BH
AVIATION...TG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
522 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-
049-052-053-181030-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Steele-Traill-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-
522 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today across the area,
with large hail up to 2 inches, brief line-embedded tornadoes,
and damaging wind gusts of 75 mph or greater. Significant wind
damage is likely with todays strongest storms. Localized flash
flooding is possible.

Heat index values will reach or slightly exceed 100 degrees today
in southeastern ND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periodic thunderstorm chances are expected through next Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054-181030-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Nelson-Griggs-Barnes-
Western Walsh-
522 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today across the area,
with hail 2 inches or larger, tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts
of 75 mph or greater. Significant wind damage is likely with
today's strongest storms. Localized flash flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periodic thunderstorm chances are expected through next Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 WSW CHURCHS FERRY     48.24N 99.29W
07/17/2020  M55 MPH          Benson             ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT AN NDAWN STATION.

&&

GGUST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
331 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

MNZ004-NDZ008-172130-
Kittson MN-Pembina ND-
331 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KITTSON AND PEMBINA COUNTIES
UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 331 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Backoo, or 31 miles east of Langdon, moving east at 55 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bathgate around 340 PM CDT.
  Hamilton around 345 PM CDT.
  Joliette around 355 PM CDT.
  Humboldt around 400 PM CDT.
  Northcote around 405 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
northwestern Minnesota...and northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4900 9648 4855 9644 4870 9793 4872 9794
      4900 9786
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 274DEG 48KT 4887 9769

Hopkins

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
352 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     CHURCHS FERRY           48.27N 99.19W
07/17/2020                   RAMSEY             ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BRIEF FUNNEL NOTED UNDER PERSISTENT WALL CLOUD, VIA
            WEBCAM.

&&

GGUST