Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Grand Forks, ND

149 
WWUS53 KFGF 172105
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
405 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

NDC005-071-172115-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-200717T2115Z/
Benson ND-Ramsey ND-
405 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BENSON AND WEST CENTRAL RAMSEY COUNTIES...

At 404 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Grahams Island
State Park, or 9 miles west of Devils Lake, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of south
central Benson and west central Ramsey Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4816 9897 4786 9922 4793 9947 4819 9929
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 275DEG 47KT 4807 9907 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Hopkins

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
216 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

See mesoscale discussion issued at 1:43pm for latest thinking on
evolution of storms and main threats through ~5pm. As of 2:15pm,
it appears that large DCAPE combined with storms starting to
become more surface based has allowed for the significant wind
threat to increase rapidly. This area also favorable for a tornado
over the next couple hours given favorable low level shear
environment. Anticipate this activity to build southeast into
greatest instability with swaths of significant winds the main
threat (along with the threats of ~2 inches, brief tornado, and
localized flash flooding).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

For Saturday...winds become northwesterly behind the system bringing
in cooler and drier air to the region as surface high pressure
builds in and storms continue moving east.

The pattern through the rest of the period beginning on Sunday shows
the upper trof sagging to the south...which will help keep
temperatures a bit more seasonable through the middle of next week
when ridging returns and temperatures again gradually warm up.
Otherwise...a series of disturbances will propagate through the
flow...keeping chances for precipitation in the picture through the
end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

Main aviation threat will be a line of thunderstorms expected to
move through the region from west to east. This line of
thunderstorms will likely contain very strong wind gusts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ038-039-049-052-
     053.

MN...None.

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...BH
AVIATION...TG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
522 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-
049-052-053-181030-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Steele-Traill-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-
522 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today across the area,
with large hail up to 2 inches, brief line-embedded tornadoes,
and damaging wind gusts of 75 mph or greater. Significant wind
damage is likely with todays strongest storms. Localized flash
flooding is possible.

Heat index values will reach or slightly exceed 100 degrees today
in southeastern ND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periodic thunderstorm chances are expected through next Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054-181030-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Nelson-Griggs-Barnes-
Western Walsh-
522 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today across the area,
with hail 2 inches or larger, tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts
of 75 mph or greater. Significant wind damage is likely with
today's strongest storms. Localized flash flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periodic thunderstorm chances are expected through next Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.