Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
235 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

The primary challenge this afternoon will be timing the initiation
of potentially severe thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm
activity this morning persisted a bit longer than forecasted, thus
slightly diminishing our severe potential for the midday and early
afternoon. Instability is slowly building back this afternoon, with
surface based CAPE climbing into the 3000 to 4000 J/Kg range.
Temperatures are slowly climbing into the 80s, but are expected to
reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. With CTs in the 86 to 91 degree
range, this will serve to help initiate today's storms. Deep shear
in the 0 to 6 km layer will range from 35 knots to 50 knots with the
0 to 3 km layer coming in at around 15 to 20 knots. The best shear
is expected to be in the James and Sheyenne Valley region and
stretch northward into the southern Devils Lake Basin.

Supercells are at least briefly possible during the mid to late
afternoon before storm mode undergoes convective downscaling.
Initially, we are still looking at a risk for large hail, damaging
wind gusts and possibly tornadoes with supercell thunderstorms. As
storms downscale, our risks will transition to damaging wind gusts
and more isolated hail and tornado risks. With model-derived DCAPE
values upwards of 1700 J/Kg, and favorable low-level shear, the
potential for damaging wind gusts this evening is moderate to high.

For tonight, thunderstorm activity is expected to persist through
the overnight into early Sunday. Much like today, Sunday's severe
thunderstorm potential will hinge on how long showers persist into
Sunday morning. Confidence is slightly higher, however, due to
stronger forcing provided by a cold front that will push across the
area Sunday afternoon and evening. CAPE will be in the 3000 to 4000
J/Kg range once more, with slightly better deep layer shear than
what we are seeing today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Monday and Tuesday...Southwesterly flow aloft becomes a bit more
zonal at the start of next week, with a frontal boundary sagging
south during the day on Monday. High POPs in our southeastern
counties continues to seem reasonable. The frontal boundary and
clouds/precip that come with it will knock temps back a bit into the
low to mid 80s, but still mostly above seasonal averages. Weak high
pressure will keep conditions fairly quiet with similar
temperatures for Tuesday, with drier dew points behind the boundary.

Wednesday through Saturday...Several ridge riding shortwaves will be
moving through the region, although timing of specific impacts is
impossible to tell at this point. There seems to be decent agreement
on a fairly strong shortwave for Wednesday, so have highest POPs for
mid-week. Pattern becomes more muddled after that, although there is
a strong signal in the ensemble R and M climate for warm and wet
conditions continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

VFR conditions prevail across the region, with the expectation of
thunderstorm development this afternoon. Storm initiation is set
to start in central North Dakota and work eastward. Severe storms
remain possible starting early this afternoon. Occasional
reduction to visibility, as well as sudden wind shifts are likely
this afternoon as these storms work from northwest to southeast
across the area.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Lynch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
659 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

MNZ001-002-004>009-013>016-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-
054-051200-
West Polk-Norman-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-
Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-
Cass-Western Walsh-
659 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms with frequent lightning and periods of heavy
rain will persist across far northeast ND and far northwest MN
through the late morning. Then scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms with hail to 2 inch diameter, wind gusts to 70 mph,
and periods of very heavy rain are all possible from late
afternoon into the late evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance for thunderstorms every day from Sunday to
Friday. A few storms may be strong to severe Sunday. Some storms
may produce excessive rainfall. Areas like the Devils Lake basin,
central and northern Red River Valley, and northwest Minnesota
that have received recent excessive rainfall may be susceptible to
the risk of flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

MNZ003-017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ049-052-053-051200-
Clay-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-
East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
659 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms with frequent lightning are possible from
early evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise no hazardous
weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance for thunderstorms every day from Sunday to
Friday. A few storms may be strong to severe Sunday. Some storms
may produce excessive rainfall. Areas like the Devils Lake basin,
central and northern Red River Valley, and northwest Minnesota
that have received recent excessive rainfall may be susceptible to
the risk of flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
547 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

NDZ038-039-049-042345-
Ransom ND-Barnes ND-Cass ND-
547 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RANSOM...
SOUTHWESTERN CASS AND SOUTHEASTERN BARNES COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
CDT...

At 547 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lucca, or 23 miles southeast of Valley City, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Enderlin around 600 PM CDT.
  Sheldon around 610 PM CDT.
  Alice around 615 PM CDT.
  Embden around 635 PM CDT.
  Chaffee and Leonard around 645 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4670 9793 4691 9727 4663 9714 4663 9728
      4660 9728 4651 9782
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 254DEG 15KT 4666 9768

NC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
555 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LISBON                  46.44N 97.68W
07/04/2020                   RANSOM             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE POWERLINES AND TREES DOWN...REPORT CONFIRMED BY
            LE DISPATCHER WHO ADDED SEVERAL FIRES HAD STARTED FROM
            THE POWER LINES BEING DOWN

&&

PJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
557 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

MNZ005-008-009-050000-
East Marshall MN-North Beltrami MN-Roseau MN-
557 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...SOUTH
CENTRAL ROSEAU AND NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 556 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gatzke, or 27 miles northeast of Thief River Falls, moving east at 15
mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Gatzke around 605 PM CDT.
  Torfin around 625 PM CDT.
  Casperson around 630 PM CDT.
  Skime around 645 PM CDT.
  Hayes Lake State Park around 655 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4834 9593 4853 9602 4870 9544 4841 9529
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 254DEG 15KT 4845 9586

NC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
609 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 E MIDDLE RIVER        48.44N 96.05W
07/04/2020                   Marshall           MN   STORM CHASER

            REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD HANGING FROM STORM EAST OF MIDDLE
            RIVER

&&

PJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
609 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

MNZ009-016-017-050015-
North Beltrami MN-North Clearwater MN-South Beltrami MN-
609 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BELTRAMI AND NORTHEASTERN
CLEARWATER COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 609 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Berner, or 34 miles northwest of Bemidji, moving
east at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Southwestern Lower Red Lake and Little Rock around 715 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

If on or near Lower Red Lake, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4777 9543 4795 9547 4808 9511 4782 9490
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 260DEG 5KT 4787 9535

NC