Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
856 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

.UPDATE...

Widespread rainfall and a few embedded thunderstorms have been
ongoing this evening ahead of a shortwave and attendant weak
surface low. The surface low is currently pushing northeast into
the Atlanta metro at this hour, migrating the heaviest rainfall
slowly northeast from the heart of the Atlanta metro into
northeast Georgia. Ongoing flash flooding issues in the Atlanta
area should gradually taper over the next few hours while the
focus for any additional isolated flash flooding concerns will
shift into northeast Georgia, especially with the aid of upslope
flow in the northeast Georgia mountains. By midnight or so, the
focus for heavy rainfall is expected to shift farther northeast
out of the forecast area.

RW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 747 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020/

..00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

As expected surface cold front has essentially washed out. Area of
showers and thunderstorms moving into western portions of the
forecast area this afternoon associated with the short wave and its
surface reflection will steadily advance across the forecast area
overnight. Instability and shear remain fairly limited and chances
for severe thunderstorms appears to remain minimal. With the slow
progression of the precipitation across the area, localized heavy
rainfall is possible, however, widespread flood threat is expected
to remain minimal as well. Some lingering precipitation across
mainly the eastern half of the area tomorrow as atmosphere remains
moist and over-running sets up as surface high pressure builds in
from the northeast.

20

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

While guidance is in decent agreement with the evolution of the
majority of the midweek system, they diverge more late Thurs into
Friday and the Euro now has the slower progression with the upper
trough and also holds onto it longer as a cutoff low. The main
forecast concern though remains with how much rainfall and
shower/storm potential the area has for Wed/Thurs as the Gulf
tropical remnants gets phased in with the amplifying trough to the
west. Raised some pops accordingly given more consensus in this
period. Overall QPF has the storm total highest axis shifted
somewhat farther north than before and decently higher in the NE
CWA. For now have 3 to 3.5 inches in parts of north and west GA with
4 to 5 inches in the NE mtns. Previous discussion follows...

Baker

Previous...

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
Unsettled weather will prevail for much of next week. Models
continue to diverge beginning late Wednesday/early Thursday with the
end of the week system(s). Will continue to use the blend for these
periods.

Weak high pressure down the spine of the Appalachians will continue
Sunday night into Monday. A front will begin to approach the Lower
Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday, but models are not progging a
big southern push. The front eventually stretches more E-W and
becomes stationary over northern portions of the state by the middle
of the week.

Models begin to diverge significantly in the mid levels and at the
surface. Both models have an upper low moving across the southern
states for the latter half of the week, but the 12Z ECMWF is much
faster and stronger with the mid level system than the 00Z GFS. The
00Z GFS has weaker open wave moving across which is slower than the
12Z ECMWF. Regardless, SW flow aloft and at the surface will allow
for deep moisture to surge northward from the GOMEX Wednesday through
the end of the week...maybe in combination with a potential tropical
wave/disturbance. This could lead to some heavy rain ahead of the
frontal system. THe deep moisture should get scoured out by a
frontal boundary late Thursday/Friday, depending upon the model of
choice.

Drier air will settle behind the surface front during the first part
of the weekend.

NListemaa

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Widespread shra/embedded tsra at ATL area sites will continue
progressing E into the overnight with tsra possible at AHN
through 04z or so. Sct shra at ATL sites expected through 06z
before tapering around 06z. Cigs/vsbys will deteriorate with
MVFR cigs likely by around 02z and IFR/LIFR cigs likely after 06z
through 15-17z before improvement back to MVFR. Low-end VFR
possible after 20-22z. Winds initially NW/W will be light and
variable to near calm overnight then light and westerly through
20-22z at which point a shift back to E is possible.

//ATL
Confidence...00Z Update...

Low to medium on winds.
Medium on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  75  61  73 /  70  30  20  10
Atlanta         63  75  62  74 /  70  20  10  10
Blairsville     58  71  57  70 /  60  30  20  10
Cartersville    62  76  62  77 /  60  20  10  10
Columbus        65  79  64  81 /  60  10   5   5
Gainesville     62  73  61  71 /  70  30  20  10
Macon           64  79  62  81 /  70  20  10   5
Rome            61  76  62  77 /  50  20  10  10
Peachtree City  63  76  62  76 /  70  10  10   5
Vidalia         67  81  66  82 /  60  30  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
917 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-260130-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
917 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Rain and a few embedded thunderstorms will push into eastern and
northeast Georgia overnight. The main hazard will be locally
heavy rainfall that could lead to isolated flash flooding. The
threat for heavy rainfall will gradually come to an end through
early Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly across eastern
portions of the outlook area on Sunday. The greatest threat with
any thunderstorms that develop will be gusty winds and lightning.
While there is only a slight chance of showers and storms on
Tuesday, chances will be increasing for more widespread activity
Wednesday through early Friday as a low pressure system approaches
from the west.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
628 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

GAZ021-022-032>034-044-045-055-057-242300-
North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-Clayton GA-Cherokee GA-DeKalb GA-Forsyth GA-
Gwinnett GA-Henry GA-South Fulton GA-
628 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...COBB...CLAYTON...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...DEKALB...SOUTHWESTERN FORSYTH...SOUTHWESTERN
GWINNETT...NORTHERN HENRY AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 627 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Due West to Jonesboro...and moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain and up to 40 mph wind.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Atlanta, Marietta, Decatur, Jonesboro, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns
Creek, Alpharetta, Smyrna, Dunwoody, East Point, Milton, Kennesaw,
Duluth, Woodstock, Acworth, Forest Park, Snellville, Riverdale and
College Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3404 8465 3420 8427 3381 8395 3372 8406
      3364 8417 3364 8419 3349 8440 3349 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 286DEG 16KT 3397 8464 3353 8434

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
653 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

GAZ023>025-242330-
Hall GA-Banks GA-Jackson GA-
653 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HALL...BANKS AND
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 652 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Homer...moving west at
10 mph.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain...up to 40 mph wind and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jefferson, Commerce, Homer, Lula, Maysville, Pendergrass, Gillsville,
Peach State Speedway, Pinefield Crossroads, Hollingsworth and Banks
Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3448 8347 3446 8340 3442 8338 3432 8339
      3426 8334 3424 8334 3422 8336 3411 8366
      3447 8374 3448 8365 3443 8361 3445 8360
      3445 8359 3449 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 075DEG 10KT 3437 8350

WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
904 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW BANKHEAD          33.76N  84.46W
10/24/2020                   FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RESCUE OF 2 VECHICLES ON VERBENA ST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2001279

BDL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
911 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW CASCADE HEIGHTS    33.75N  84.49W
10/24/2020                   FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER REPORTED INSIDE 3 BUILDINGS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2001280

BDL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
922 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW BANKHEAD           33.79N  84.47W
10/24/2020                   FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER INFILTRATED APARTMENT BUILDINGS
            ON CENTER STREET NW LEADING TO EVACUATIONS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2001281

RWILLIS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1001 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

GAZ034-035-045>049-250230-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Barrow GA-DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-
Newton GA-
1001 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...WALTON...
EASTERN ROCKDALE...SOUTHWESTERN BARROW...EASTERN DEKALB...EASTERN
GWINNETT AND NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

At 1000 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Snellville to near Brick Store...and moving northeast
at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain and wind up to 40 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Lawrenceville, Conyers, Monroe, Covington, Snellville, Buford,
Loganville, Auburn, Dacula, Social Circle, Grayson, Oxford,
Porterdale, Walnut Grove, Rutledge, Bostwick, Between, Good Hope,
Carl and Jersey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3411 8394 3368 8344 3349 8392 3379 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 220DEG 15KT 3386 8401 3362 8380

WIND...40MPH