River Flood Warning 458, NWS Atlanta, GA

743 
WGUS82 KFFC 250934
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
534 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Big Creek near Cumming affecting Forsyth County.

GAC117-251045-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0458.000000T0000Z-201025T0934Z/
/CMGG1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
534 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...The Flood Warning for the Big Creek near Cumming has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Big Creek near Cumming.
* At 4:45 AM EDT Sunday the stage was 5.9 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 6 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 5.1 feet late this 
  morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3418 8424 3417 8420 3411 8419 3410 8420
      3410 8425 3411 8424

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
403 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Light to moderate rain continues to exit the state to the east,
leaving low clouds and restricted visibilities in its wake. Surface
ridge is expected to build into Georgia from the northeast today,
with the wedge of high pressure promoting some over-running light
precipitation.

At this time, have continued slight chance to chance pops with the
lingering moisture through today, particularly over the eastern half
of the forecast area. Regardless, expect the majority of the area to
see gloomy overcast condition today. Temperatures will warm to the
mid 70s to near 80 this afternoon. Morning lows will settle into the
low 60s.

31

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
Unsettled, wet weather is anticipated for the middle of next week.
The forecast will depend heavily on the timing of a strong upper
level low pressure system and the track of current T.D 28.
Regardless, deep tropical moisture will stream northward from the
GOMEX brining the potential for heavy rainfall to the outlook area
during the mid to late part of next week.

The models are still diverging on the timing of an upper level low
pressure system for Wednesday into Thursday across the Gulf States.
The GFS has had poor run to run consistency with the evolution of
the upper system while the ECWMF has had some timing issues, but
decent run to run consistency with the strength of the mid level
system. The GFS now has a closed low system that moves into the
Lower Mississippi River Valley on Thursday that begins to shunt
northeast into the TN/OH River Valleys. The 12Z ECWMF tracks the mid
level low much further south.

The official NHC track for T.D. 28 has the system making landfall
across the central Gulf Coast on Wednesday. The tropical system will
likely get absorbed into a frontal system stalled across the Gulf
States later Wednesday into early Thursday. The low pressure/frontal
system will move across the Gulf States on Thursday. There are also
some timing difference with the FROPA, with the GFS being slightly
faster than the 12Z ECMWF.

The potential for heavy rainfall is increasing during the Wednesday
to Thursday time frame. Currently, the axis of heavier rainfall is
across the higher terrain of north GA with widespread 2"-3" inch
amounts. Locally higher amounts are possible.

High pressure and a drier airmass will settle over the region for
the weekend.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z Update... LIFR to IFR conditions are expected
overnight as rain moves east of the TAF sites. Improvement to MVFR
expected after 15-17Z. Low VFR conditions are possible after
20-22Z before degrading again late tonight through Monday morning.
Winds will be light and variable overnight, then westerly through
the day. A shift back to the E is possible in the late afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on winds.
Medium confidence on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  61  73  60 /  40  10   5   5
Atlanta         75  62  74  61 /  20  10   5   5
Blairsville     71  57  70  56 /  40  20  10   5
Cartersville    76  62  77  60 /  20  10   5   5
Columbus        79  64  81  64 /  10   5   5   5
Gainesville     73  61  71  60 /  40  10   5   5
Macon           79  62  81  60 /  20  10   5   5
Rome            76  62  77  60 /  10  10   5   5
Peachtree City  76  62  76  61 /  20  10   5   5
Vidalia         81  66  82  64 /  30  10   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
917 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-260130-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
917 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Rain and a few embedded thunderstorms will push into eastern and
northeast Georgia overnight. The main hazard will be locally
heavy rainfall that could lead to isolated flash flooding. The
threat for heavy rainfall will gradually come to an end through
early Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly across eastern
portions of the outlook area on Sunday. The greatest threat with
any thunderstorms that develop will be gusty winds and lightning.
While there is only a slight chance of showers and storms on
Tuesday, chances will be increasing for more widespread activity
Wednesday through early Friday as a low pressure system approaches
from the west.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.