Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
348 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Primary concern in the short term period is heavy rainfall/
isolated flash flooding and diurnal convection. PW on KFFC morning
RAOB was only 1.3in and 19Z RAP analysis 1.4in over all but far SE
counties, yet deep convection in north GA so far today have been
very efficient and moving just fast enough for some training/
redevelopment with favorable orientation and boundary interaction.
PW progged to increase significantly to 1.75-1.85in this time
tomorrow. Only hope for not seeing enhanced heavy rainfall and
flooding threat is if clouds will diminish sfc heating and
instability, which is a strong possibility. Vertical wind shear
will be limited as well, so storms should be less intense
Thursday. Guidance also indicating that convection Thurs night
will persist past midnight, which is also very possible if deep
moisture materializes to the extent forecast. Tried to modify
max/min temps to decrease diurnal range but NBM max temps already
quite cool tomorrow.

SNELSON

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Wet weekend ahead as the long term picks up on Friday with stalled,
sheared PV anomaly and associated 500 mb trough axis still to the
west of the CWA. Broad ascent is forecast to continue to
overspread the region focused in part by any vorticity maxima
rotating around the trough as well as general WAA the the low
levels which will also be bringing in plenty of gulf moisture.
Models are supportive of likely or higher PoPs across the region
both Friday and Saturday, though final coverage details may be
influenced by mesoscale details, such as remnant outflow
boundaries and leftover cloudiness from previous day's/overnight
convection, that courser global models won't properly resolve.
700-500 mb lapse rates will remain rather lack luster on Friday,
though ample day time heating and marginal shear will support some
strong thunderstorm potential. Lapse rates improve a bit on
Saturday as colder core of trough is expected to rotate through
the CWA on its way to being absorbed within polar jet, making for
somewhat better CAPE profiles and decent shear profiles, so some
potential will once again exist for stronger thunderstorms across
the area, though plenty of uncertainty remains with regards to
timing as well as placement of aforementioned mesoscale features
that could disrupt the larger scale set up.

Trough begins to dissipate on Sunday as PV anomaly gets sheared
out between large, persistent western ridge and another ridge
sliding in from the Atlantic. Still, plenty of moisture will be
wrapping into the CWA thanks to being on the western flank of that
Atlantic ridge, so while PoPs may not be as prolific, still
expect typical summer like coverage across the north, and possibly
even better coverage to the south thanks to outflows and
seabreeze type fronts. Similar situation on Monday, though more
uncertainty begins to creep into the forecast. 12Z GFS shows
tropical wave moving into the gulf during this time period.
Location of this tropical wave will be highly dependent on how
organized current system over the MDR of the tropical Atlantic
becomes as well as details of the ridge sliding to the west over
the Atlantic. Will carry this uncertainty in the PoPs, though
still expect some coverage given tropical airmass will still be in
place across the CWA.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mostly VFR until early Thurs morning with a 1-3hr period of IFR
stratus likely over north GA airports. Sct SHRA/TSRA will become a
bit more widespread after 20Z and persist a bit longer than
normal, thru 03Z. Would not be surprised if isold SHRA/TSRA linger
thru 06Z or later. Sfc winds very light (< 6kts) from the E to SE
thru the period.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low-Medium confidence on IFR cig likelihood and timing.
Medium confidence on SHRA/TSRA coverage and timing.
High confidence on all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  84  68  81 /  50  80  80  70
Atlanta         68  83  70  80 /  60  80  80  70
Blairsville     63  78  64  74 /  50  80  80  80
Cartersville    68  85  69  80 /  60  80  80  70
Columbus        70  88  71  83 /  50  80  80  70
Gainesville     67  82  68  79 /  50  80  80  70
Macon           69  87  71  82 /  50  80  80  60
Rome            67  85  69  81 /  60  80  70  70
Peachtree City  67  84  69  79 /  60  80  80  70
Vidalia         71  89  72  85 /  40  70  70  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...SNELSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1224 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201630-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1224 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon
and evening across north and central Georgia. Some thunderstorms
may linger overnight. A few storms could be strong with an
isolated severe storm possible. The main threats will be locally
heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds, and cloud-to-ground
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Numerous thunderstorms are expected Thursday through Saturday
across much of the forecast area. Scattered thunderstorms are
forecast Sunday through Tuesday. A few storms could be strong to
severe each day, with strong to damaging winds, frequent
lightning, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
313 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020

GAZ016-191945-
White GA-
313 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WHITE COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM EDT...

At 313 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Cleveland...moving
southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cleveland, Helen, Leaf, Mossy Creek, Smithgall Woods Conservation
Are, Sautee and Qualatchee Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3469 8364 3467 8364 3466 8366 3463 8364
      3451 8366 3450 8367 3450 8372 3461 8386
      3462 8386 3471 8377
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 316DEG 14KT 3462 8378

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

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