Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
700 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 303 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

As the short term period begins, an upper level longwave trough over
the midwest is gradually pushing towards the southeastern CONUS. A
weak cold front will approach the forecast area ahead of the upper
level trough as it moves southeast. Meanwhile, a weak frontal
boundary remains nearly stationary across south Georgia and the
north Florida panhandle. Both of these boundaries will provide the
focus for precipitation from this afternoon trough the end of the
period.

The main focus for convection today will be along the frontal
boundary to the south. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
begun to develop in east-central Georgia in the vicinity of the
stalled front, and will continue to increase in coverage over the
next couple of hours. Likely PoPs are currently forecast during the
mid to late afternoon hours in this area. While widespread severe
weather is not expected today, SBCAPE values of up to 3000 J/kg will
lead to the possibility of a few strong storms and possibly isolated
severe storms. With deep moisture in the vicinity of the front,
thunderstorms could be slow to diminish and could linger into the
overnight hours. Persistent easterly winds during the overnight and
early morning may also lead to the development of a low stratus deck
and patchy fog across portions of the forecast area on Wednesday
morning.

Convective coverage across north and central Georgia is expected to
be higher on Wednesday. Initially, convection may enhance along both
boundaries, one remaining in south Georgia and the other entering
far north Georgia. However, as the longwave trough continues to move
eastward, more mid-level support will lend itself to higher
precipitation chances area-wide. As a result, likely PoPs are
forecast across the majority of the CWA tomorrow afternoon.
Strengthening mid-level lapse rates in the afternoon and some
marginal deep-layer shear near the trough will combine with diurnal
instability to allow an increased potential for some strong to
briefly severe thunderstorms. Model guidance furthermore continues
to indicate a wave of low pressure moving along the boundary in
south Georgia, helping to enhance lift and coverage in central
Georgia as well. Damaging wind gusts and small hail will be possible
with any severe thunderstorms that occur, in addition to frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

High temperatures this afternoon will run from 2-4 degrees above
average, primarily ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s.
Enhanced cloud cover and increased rain chances across the area
tomorrow afternoon will limit temperatures to near seasonal values
-- mainly in the upper 80s across north and central Georgia. Low
temperatures each morning are expected to range from the mid 60s
to low 70s.

King

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

An unsettled forecast period featuring high daily PoPs will
characterize the long term. The upper trough axis centered across
the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday will make only gradual
eastward progress through Saturday. Given the placement of this
persistent trough in addition to a lingering stationary surface
front draped across the area, likely to categorical PoPs can be
expected each day through Saturday. PWs near 2" will provide the
threat for locally heavy rainfall each day as well.

By Sunday, the upper trough will diminish and migrate northeastward
while the Bermuda high builds westward into the region. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage may thus be more scattered by Sunday into
Monday. Beyond the end of the current forecast period, developments
in the Gulf of Mexico will need to be monitored as the current
tropical waves in the Caribbean and Atlantic have some potential to
enter the Gulf. At this point, however, much uncertainty remains
regarding the future evolution and track of any potential system.

Given abundant cloud cover and convection, high temperatures through
the end of the week will run slightly below normal while low
temperatures will be near to slightly above normal.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions to start with potential for MVFR ceilings
to develop late tonight/early Wednesday. MVFR conditions
will favor AHN and MCN. Patchy MVFR vsbys possible as well
late tonight.
Good potential for a flair up of showers and thunderstorms
for Wednesday, most likely in the afternoon and evening,
with VFR ceilings developing. Surface winds becoming light
and variable for the overnight and East to South less than
10 kts on Wednesday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence for MVFR ceilings at the airfield.
High confidence for all other elements to start.
Medium confidence for storms Wednesday.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  87  68  83 /  20  60  60  80
Atlanta         70  88  69  84 /  10  70  60  80
Blairsville     63  80  62  77 /  20  70  60  80
Cartersville    69  89  68  84 /  10  70  60  70
Columbus        71  91  70  87 /  20  70  70  80
Gainesville     68  85  67  81 /  20  70  60  80
Macon           70  88  69  86 /  40  70  70  80
Rome            68  89  68  85 /  10  70  50  70
Peachtree City  68  88  68  83 /  10  70  60  80
Vidalia         72  87  71  88 /  70  70  60  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...BDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1148 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1148 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon
and evening across the eastern and central portions of the
forecast area, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the higher terrain of northeast Georgia. A few storms could be
strong, with locally heavy rainfall, brief gusty winds, and cloud-
to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
through Saturday across much of the forecast area. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are forecast on Sunday and Monday. A few
storms could be strong to severe each day, with strong to damaging
winds, frequent lightning, small hail, and locally heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
452 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE PONDEROSA         32.25N  82.24W
08/18/2020                   TOOMBS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE WITH POWERLINES ALONG ANDERSON
            CIR NE OF LYONS

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2001156

THIEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
454 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     LIGHTNING        1 SE VIDALIA            32.21N  82.40W
08/18/2020                   TOOMBS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A HOUSE FIRE WAS REPORTED ON MEADOWS LANE IN VIDALIA,
            WHICH IS BELIEVED TO HAVE CAUSED SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO
            THE HOME.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2001157

THIEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
457 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

GAZ062-182130-
Warren GA-
457 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WARREN COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 457 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Mesena, or near
Thomson...moving northeast at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Warrenton, Camak and Mesena.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3336 8255 3333 8265 3341 8275 3349 8260
      3345 8259 3341 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 242DEG 4KT 3343 8257

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
536 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

GAZ096-097-109-182200-
Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-
536 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAURENS...EASTERN
BLECKLEY AND NORTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 536 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Yonkers, or near
Cochran...moving east at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Chester, Dexter, Yonkers, Goldsboro, Rebie, Roddy and Rowland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3235 8333 3245 8330 3248 8322 3249 8306
      3240 8299 3232 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 279DEG 6KT 3241 8324

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
612 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

GAZ096-097-109-182245-
Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-
612 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAURENS...SOUTHERN
BLECKLEY AND NORTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 612 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Plainfield, or 7 miles
north of Eastman...moving southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Chester, Cadwell, Dubois, Gresston, Plainfield, Empire, Yonkers and
Roddy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3233 8334 3241 8325 3237 8300 3222 8301
      3218 8313
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 301DEG 7KT 3230 8316

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
938 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

GAZ033-043-044-053>055-190230-
Fayette GA-North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Clayton GA-Coweta GA-
South Fulton GA-
938 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN FAYETTE...NORTH
FULTON...EASTERN DOUGLAS...NORTHWESTERN CLAYTON...NORTHERN COWETA AND
SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

At 938 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Sandtown, or 11 miles
southeast of Douglasville...moving south at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Douglasville, East Point, Union City, Riverdale, College
Park, Fairburn, Tyrone, Palmetto, Chattahoochee Hills, Sweetwater
Creek State Park, Chapel Hill, Sandy Creek, Campbellton and Sandtown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3376 8472 3376 8459 3374 8458 3376 8456
      3376 8449 3350 8439 3348 8479
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 351DEG 6KT 3366 8458

WIND...40MPH