Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
242 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion for Tuesday, July 21...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Weak ridging aloft is expected to continue through the forecast
period. It's full on summer and convection has already fired across
much of the forecast area and should continue through the rest of
the afternoon and evening tapering off overnight. Strong daytime
heating today should lead to moderate instability allowing for a few
strong to isolated severe storms possible. The main threats for
today will be damaging winds, hail, periods of heavy rain, and
frequent lightning. Wednesday will bring a similar story as today
with weak ridging aloft and slightly higher pops across the northern
tier. Again, a strong to isolated severe storm can't be ruled out.

High temperatures this afternoon are expected to reach the mid 90s
to near 100 degrees, outside of the mountains where highs are
forecast in the 80s. Overnight temperatures are forecast to be
around 5-8 degrees above average with lows mainly in the 70s.
Temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be fairly similar to this
afternoon, but slightly cooler across portions of northern Georgia
due to increased cloud cover. In addition, heat index values today
and Wednesday are fairly widespread in the 100 to 104 range with a
few isolated spots hitting 105 degrees. Will continue to monitor as
heat index values approach Heat Advisory levels over the next couple
of days, especially across portions of central Georgia.

Reaves

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Thursday begins with ridging building over the Great Plains as a
potent shortwave moves along a trough over the western CONUS. Along
the bottom of the larger high which extends out over the Atlantic, a
tropical wave will be centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico
moving west. The ridge will continue to build as a result of latent
heat release from expected storms over the northern plains and the
movement of the tropical wave into the Gulf coast of Texas,
eventually breaking over the eastern CONUS. This may bring a brief
bit of relief to the CWA towards the beginning of next week as some
lower PWATs are able to filter in underneath that breaking wave,
though plenty of uncertainty remains around that scenario, and may
depend on the development of the tropical wave within the gulf.

The result of all this for the CWA is two-fold: continued diurnally
driven thunderstorms and continued heat. The ridging that will be in
place over the CWA is not forecast to be very strong, especially
given that we will be in a bit of a weakness between the summertime
high dominating the Atlantic and the building ridge to the west.
Convective temperatures are expected to be reached, allowing for our
daily storms to continue. Additionally, with copious moisture
remaining in place, day time heat indices will continue to regularly
venture into the low 100s for the time being. As stated above, we
could see some relief from at least the storms early next week, but
plenty of uncertainty is around that scenario.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mainly VFR cigs expected to continue through the forecast period.
Isold to Sct SHRA/TSRA will continue through this
afternoon/evening, but should diminish after 02Z. Winds will
remain fairly light around 4-8kts through this afternoon on the W
side, before diminishing after sunset and becoming more variable
overnight. Some sct fog possible overnight and into morning hours
before SHRA/TSRA expected again Wed afternoon and evening. Have
included a prob30 for TSRA to show potential for Wed.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on wind direction. Medium to high confidence on all other
elements.

Reaves

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  94  73  93 /  20  40  30  40
Atlanta         74  92  74  92 /  20  40  30  40
Blairsville     68  84  67  84 /  30  60  40  60
Cartersville    73  91  72  92 /  30  50  30  40
Columbus        75  95  74  96 /  10  30  20  20
Gainesville     72  90  72  90 /  30  50  30  60
Macon           73  96  73  95 /  10  30  20  30
Rome            73  91  72  93 /  30  60  30  60
Peachtree City  73  92  72  93 /  20  40  30  30
Vidalia         74  95  74  95 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Reaves
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Reaves

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1203 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-221615-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1203 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will develop once again this afternoon. A
few strong to potentially severe storms will be possible with
damaging winds, large hail, locally heavy rain, and frequent
cloud to ground lightning being the main threats with any storms
this afternoon and evening. The main focus for storms will be
across the far northern sections.

Heat indices will briefly reach 105 degrees across portions of
Central Georgia this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the area.
A few storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds,
frequent lightning, hail and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees can be expected over much of
the area outside of the mountains through Friday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
626 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

GAZ011-212300-
Chattooga GA-
626 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHATTOOGA COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM EDT...

At 626 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Menlo, or near
Summerville...moving north at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Summerville, Lyerly, Menlo, Cloudland, Berryton, Chattoogaville,
James H. Floyd State Park and Holland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3454 8537 3444 8525 3432 8540 3436 8548
      3453 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 201DEG 11KT 3444 8545

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
646 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

GAZ002-011-212315-
Chattooga GA-Walker GA-
646 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHATTOOGA AND
SOUTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 646 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Cloudland, or 8 miles
west of Summerville...moving north at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...nickel sized hail and frequent cloud
           to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Menlo and Cloudland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3468 8548 3463 8537 3448 8541 3445 8550
      3462 8554
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 170DEG 12KT 3451 8548

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH

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