Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
242 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion for Tuesday, July 21...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Weak ridging aloft is expected to continue through the forecast
period. It's full on summer and convection has already fired across
much of the forecast area and should continue through the rest of
the afternoon and evening tapering off overnight. Strong daytime
heating today should lead to moderate instability allowing for a few
strong to isolated severe storms possible. The main threats for
today will be damaging winds, hail, periods of heavy rain, and
frequent lightning. Wednesday will bring a similar story as today
with weak ridging aloft and slightly higher pops across the northern
tier. Again, a strong to isolated severe storm can't be ruled out.

High temperatures this afternoon are expected to reach the mid 90s
to near 100 degrees, outside of the mountains where highs are
forecast in the 80s. Overnight temperatures are forecast to be
around 5-8 degrees above average with lows mainly in the 70s.
Temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be fairly similar to this
afternoon, but slightly cooler across portions of northern Georgia
due to increased cloud cover. In addition, heat index values today
and Wednesday are fairly widespread in the 100 to 104 range with a
few isolated spots hitting 105 degrees. Will continue to monitor as
heat index values approach Heat Advisory levels over the next couple
of days, especially across portions of central Georgia.

Reaves

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Thursday begins with ridging building over the Great Plains as a
potent shortwave moves along a trough over the western CONUS. Along
the bottom of the larger high which extends out over the Atlantic, a
tropical wave will be centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico
moving west. The ridge will continue to build as a result of latent
heat release from expected storms over the northern plains and the
movement of the tropical wave into the Gulf coast of Texas,
eventually breaking over the eastern CONUS. This may bring a brief
bit of relief to the CWA towards the beginning of next week as some
lower PWATs are able to filter in underneath that breaking wave,
though plenty of uncertainty remains around that scenario, and may
depend on the development of the tropical wave within the gulf.

The result of all this for the CWA is two-fold: continued diurnally
driven thunderstorms and continued heat. The ridging that will be in
place over the CWA is not forecast to be very strong, especially
given that we will be in a bit of a weakness between the summertime
high dominating the Atlantic and the building ridge to the west.
Convective temperatures are expected to be reached, allowing for our
daily storms to continue. Additionally, with copious moisture
remaining in place, day time heat indices will continue to regularly
venture into the low 100s for the time being. As stated above, we
could see some relief from at least the storms early next week, but
plenty of uncertainty is around that scenario.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mainly VFR cigs expected to continue through the forecast period.
Isold to Sct SHRA/TSRA will continue through this
afternoon/evening, but should diminish after 02Z. Winds will
remain fairly light around 4-8kts through this afternoon on the W
side, before diminishing after sunset and becoming more variable
overnight. Some sct fog possible overnight and into morning hours
before SHRA/TSRA expected again Wed afternoon and evening. Have
included a prob30 for TSRA to show potential for Wed.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on wind direction. Medium to high confidence on all other
elements.

Reaves

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  94  73  93 /  20  40  30  40
Atlanta         74  92  74  92 /  20  40  30  40
Blairsville     68  84  67  84 /  30  60  40  60
Cartersville    73  91  72  92 /  30  50  30  40
Columbus        75  95  74  96 /  10  30  20  20
Gainesville     72  90  72  90 /  30  50  30  60
Macon           73  96  73  95 /  10  30  20  30
Rome            73  91  72  93 /  30  60  30  60
Peachtree City  73  92  72  93 /  20  40  30  30
Vidalia         74  95  74  95 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Reaves
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Reaves

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1203 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-221615-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1203 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will develop once again this afternoon. A
few strong to potentially severe storms will be possible with
damaging winds, large hail, locally heavy rain, and frequent
cloud to ground lightning being the main threats with any storms
this afternoon and evening. The main focus for storms will be
across the far northern sections.

Heat indices will briefly reach 105 degrees across portions of
Central Georgia this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the area.
A few storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds,
frequent lightning, hail and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees can be expected over much of
the area outside of the mountains through Friday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
358 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

GAZ024-025-027-212030-
Madison GA-Banks GA-Jackson GA-
358 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON...
SOUTHEASTERN BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

At 357 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Pocataligo, or 7
miles east of Commerce. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Commerce, Nicholson, Ila, Pocataligo and Banks Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3426 8334 3424 8334 3426 8331 3426 8330
      3425 8329 3425 8324 3422 8321 3409 8336
      3414 8346 3422 8353 3431 8338
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 139DEG 1KT 3421 8333

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
400 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

GAZ004-005-212030-
Whitfield GA-Murray GA-
400 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WHITFIELD AND MURRAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 359 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Eton, or near
Chatsworth...moving north at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dalton, Chatsworth, Eton, Crandall, Sumac, Gregory, Tilton, Conasauga
Lake, Beaverdale, Dawnville, Cisco, Fort Mountain State Park, North
Georgia Speedway and Tennga.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3489 8462 3479 8466 3468 8476 3465 8495
      3486 8494 3498 8488 3499 8462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 177DEG 6KT 3482 8480

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
401 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

GAZ033-044-045-055-212030-
North Fulton GA-Clayton GA-DeKalb GA-South Fulton GA-
401 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...NORTHWESTERN
CLAYTON...SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB AND EASTERN SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

At 401 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Riverdale, or near
Jonesboro...moving north at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Decatur, Jonesboro, East Point, Union City, Forest Park,
Riverdale, College Park, Morrow, Hapeville, Lake City,
Hartsfield-Jackson Airport, Midtown, Grant Park-Zoo Atlanta,
Candler-Mcafee, Belvedere Park, Druid Hills, Sweet Auburn, Piedmont
Park and Cascade Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3380 8438 3373 8421 3365 8427 3365 8428
      3364 8427 3347 8438 3349 8440 3350 8442
      3351 8442 3352 8443 3355 8444 3355 8446
      3354 8450 3362 8458
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 177DEG 6KT 3356 8439

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

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