Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
346 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms popping up across the state
this afternoon should continue through the evening hours before
diminishing for the night. These storms so far have not reached
severe criteria yet but there are a few strong ones. Mainly seeing
brief periods of of heavy rain, gust to 30kt, and lightning.

Weak surface and Mid and upper level ridge remains in place
through the short term and should help to keep these storms from
getting to strong. The Mid to upper level ridging is centered
mainly across N GA right over the deeper lower level moisture
moving in from the NE. Warm temps aloft between area also limiting
available energy for storms. This should continue through the
short term so will pretty much see a repeat of this Sunday
afternoon/evening.

Daytime high temps remain mainly in the 90s with 80s in the the NE
GA mountains. Low temps will continue in the 70s.

01

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
High pressure and weak zonal flow will remain in place for most of
the forecast period. High pressure aloft will keep us in a hot an
humid pattern fueling afternoon thunderstorms. Wednesday appears
most likely to contain strong thunderstorms across northern Georgia
as a weak impulse moves through. That being said, the heat will
provide enough instability each day for the occasional pulse
convective storm to become strong to severe with damaging winds
being the primary threat.

By Friday, a cold front will sink into the Tennessee River Valley.
This front will act more like as a moisture gradient boundary, as it
won't actually provide much in the way of relief from the hot
temperatures. Right now, models are showing the front stalling in
Tennessee increasing precip chances for Northern Georgia before
sliding off to the east.

The heat is going to be the big story for the week. Temperatures
will run 3 to 4 degrees above normal for the week. Highs will remain
in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices could be as high as 105 in
central Georgia by Tuesday of next week, while widespread low 100's
are likely. The afore mentioned boundary should take some of the
edge off the heat indices as things dry out a little bit but the
heat will remain.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
SHRA/TSRA popping up across the area and should see TAF sites
affected over the next few hours. Should see these showers continue
through Thu evening hours before diminishing after sunset. Will
see another round Sunday afternoon. Ceilings should be mainly VFR
except in and around SHRA/TSRA where you will see MVFR ceilings
this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Winds will stay out of the W
to NW at 10kt or less. Will see some VRB gust in the 20-30kt range
in and around convective activity.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  95  74  96 /  30  40  20  30
Atlanta         74  92  75  94 /  30  40  20  30
Blairsville     68  86  68  89 /  30  60  30  40
Cartersville    73  94  73  95 /  30  40  20  20
Columbus        75  96  76  98 /  10  30  10  40
Gainesville     73  92  73  93 /  30  40  30  30
Macon           73  96  75  97 /  10  20  10  30
Rome            73  94  73  96 /  20  40  20  20
Peachtree City  72  93  73  95 /  20  40  20  30
Vidalia         74  96  75  97 /   5  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1148 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1148 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, mainly during the
afternoon and evening. A few strong thunderstorms are possible with
strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rain.

Heat index values of 97 to 104 degrees can be expected over much of
the area outside of the mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

For Sunday and Monday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. A
few strong storms are possible with strong, gusty winds, frequent
lightning, small hail and locally heavy rainfall.

For Tuesday through Friday, Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected across the area. A few storms may be strong to severe with
damaging winds, frequent lightning, hail and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees can be expected over much of
the area outside of the mountains through Friday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
528 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             1 NNE MABLETON          33.84N  84.57W
07/18/2020  E1.00 INCH       COBB               GA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            SHANNON GREEN CIRCLE SW AND NICKAJACK RD SW.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000911

NM

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